xcel: an update clean energy action january 26, 2012 leslie glustrom 303-245-8637...

Xcel:

An UpdateClean Energy Action

January 26, 2012

Leslie Glustrom303-245-8637 lglustrom@gmail.com

Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Electricity…

Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf

ElectricityKyoto Target

Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.

Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.

http://americasclimatechoices.org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Natl Academies of Science Report 2010Originally from Meehl 2007—Fig 10-8, IPCC Volume I (2007) www.ipcc.ch

Projected Temp Changes Relative to 1961-1990

Source: National Snow Ice and Data Center

Arctic Summer Sea Ice Melt Compared to IPCC Model Projections

0%

Transportation24%

Residential/Commerical/

Industrial Fuel Use18%

Fossil Fuel Production

9%

Agriculture8%

Industrial Processes

2%

Waste Management

2%

Primary Components of Colorado's Greenhouse Gas Emissions

Electricity36.9%

Coal 88%of electricity

Natural Gas12% of electrcitiy

Source: Center for Climate Solutions GHG Inventory for Colorado Oct 2007Available from www.rockymountainclimate.org

Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Source: Boulder Climate Action Plan Update October 2009http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/CAP_Guide.pdf

Source of Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector

October 2009 Update

57% of Boulder’s GHGs From Electricity

•11% Residential

•46% Comm/IndElectricity

Elect

ricity

Transportation

Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Electricity…

Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf

ElectricityKyoto Target

Xcel Fuel Percentage 2009

35.60%

10% 1.70% 0.05%

52.50%

Coal Natural Gas

WindHydro Solar

Data from Xcel's 2009 Fuel Mix Bill Insert (08/10)

Xcel’s Colorado Fuel Mix 2009-2010

200952% Coal

Xcel Fuel Mix 2010 Projected

68.80%

0.49%11.50%

16.70%

0.30%

Coal

Natural Gas

Wind Hydro Solar

Data Provided by Xcel in the 09AL-299E Rate Case Docket, Colorado PUC

2010 Projected68% Coal

Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory

Electricity…

Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf

ElectricityKyoto Target

Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor’s Energy OfficeInformation on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy

Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado

Colorado’sWind Potential Approx 96 GW

Colorado’s Solar PotentialOver 200 GW

To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12,000 MW)

Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar….

And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects.

Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--IF we decide to do it!

7,617

10,000

3,000

1,000

5,000

0

1,000

2,000

3,000

4,000

5,000

6,000

7,000

8,000

9,000

10,000

Meg

awat

ts (M

W)

Xcel's Peak Wind Solar Biomass Natural Gas

Type of Bid

Xcel's April 10, 2009 BidsSource:Denver Business Journal May 1, 2009

Xcel's Peak = Projected 2009 Peak (6566 MW) Plus 16% Reserve Margin (1051) = Total (7617 MW)From February 2009 Loads and Resources Table Submitted March 19, 2009 to the Colorado PUC

Source: Xcel’s 30 Day Report 2009 All Source RFP, Colorado PUC, May 2009

GOOD NEWS!!!Xcel Receives Over 15,000 MW of

Renewable Energy Bids in April 2009

Wind10,000 MW

Solar3,000 MW

Xcel’s Peak LoadApprox. 7,600 MW(90% Fossil Fuel)

Xcel Has Over 14,000 MW of Clean Energy Projects Ready to Go

Clean Energy Alternatives to the Valmont Coal Plant

Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report on April 2009 Bids—Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC

Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report April 2009 RFP Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC

Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy

$3.02$2.47$2.11$2.07

$9.76$7.65

$4.70

$49.74

$30.89

$11.91

$4.59$1.77

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

2010 2020 2030 2040 2046

Year

$/MMB

TU

120% of Supp Att J

Dark Blue Base Line Shows Xcel's Average Projected Coal Costs from Supplemental Attachment JSee LWG 4 w ith Hearing Exhibit 121

Coal Costs Escalated at 5% Per Year

Coal Costs Escalated at 10% Per Year

2) The True Cost of Coal = ????? Cents/kwh

1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004-2009)

Actual Coal Cost >10%/Year

Xcel Models Coal Cost<2%/Year

Source: KTH-5 (Xcel Witness Karen Hyde) Docket 10M-245E Colorado PUC

Xcel’s Projections of Future Rate Increases 2015-2020(Assuming no carbon charges and almost flat coal prices; 2010 rates between 9-10 cents/kwh)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

Mill

ion

$

2007 2008 2009

Xcel's Operating Income and Expenses City of Boulder 2007-2009

Operating Income

Operating Expenses

Source: Annual Reports from Xcel to the City of Boulder

Source: www.xcelenergy.com

Xcel’s Indebtedness

List of Things to Try Before Considering

Municipalization

Carbon TaxDemand Side MeasuresPUC InvolvementCommunity Choice AggregationFranchise NegotiationsApproach Xcel with Request

Colorado Municipal Colorado Municipal UtilitiesUtilities29 Colorado Munis:

Lyons, Loveland, Longmont, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc

Source: CAMUColorado Association of Municipal Utilities

RenewablesYESA Remarkable Volunteer Effort

Key Questions for Citizen Experts:

1)How Much Renewable Energy?

1)What Will it Do to Rates?

Boulder’s Load

100 MWbaseload100 MW “Baseload”

i.e. “Coal”

20% Renewable Electricity

100 MWbaseload

30% Renewable Electricity

100 MWbaseload

30% Renewable Electricity

Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear

make no sense.

100 MWbaseload

50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration

How do we get to 100% How do we get to 100% Renewable Electricity?Renewable Electricity?

To get to 100% - practical tech isn’t obvious.

%%RenewablRenewabl

eses(variable (variable generatiogeneratio

n)n)

Controllable Controllable GenerationGeneration

SolarSolarWindWindEtcEtc

Short Short Storage Storage

(seconds to (seconds to days)days)

Tech ExistsTech Exists

Long Long StorageStorage

(weeks to (weeks to years)years)

No TechNo Tech

Up to 25%Up to 25% MixMixNimble Nimble

Peaking.Peaking.Static Static

baseload.baseload.

YesYesMostly Mostly

wind OKwind OK

Up to 50%Up to 50% Nimble Nimble PeakingPeakingFuel gas.Fuel gas.

More. More. Must MixMust MixWind & Wind & SolarSolar

Up to 75%Up to 75% Nimble Nimble PeakingPeakingFuel gas.Fuel gas.

And MoreAnd More YesYes

Up to 100%Up to 100% Nimble Nimble PeakingPeaking

With nimble With nimble fuelfuel

And MoreAnd More YesYes Yes, but…Yes, but…

Xcel…Chained to CoalXcel…Chained to Coal

2011 to 2018 Approx. $400 Million Pollution Controls for Brush and Hayden

(Won’t Address CO2) Dockets 10M-245E and 11A-325E Colorado PUC

Over 1800 MW of Coal Through 2033

Pueblo 1170 MW Retire 2033, 2035, 2069Brush 505 MW Retire 2041Hayden 237 MW Retire 2025 and 2036Craig 84 MW Retire 2040 and 2039

Xcel Path: Approx 60% Electricity from Coal in 2011 and 35% in 2030

Muni Renewable % (at Rate Match)

Xcel Renewable % (under 2010 RPS)

Graphs by “Renewables Yes “ Using Data from Xcel Provided to City of Boulder and in PUC Dockets

Renewable % Comparison—Xcel v Boulder Municipal at Rate Parity

Fossil Fuel Use—Xcel Projections v Boulder Muni at Rate Match

Graph by “Renewables Yes” Using Data from Xcel and Modeling Projections; Source data available on request.

Xcel Total Fossil Fuel Use

Muni Total Fossil Fuel Use

$3.02$2.47$2.11$2.07

$9.76$7.65

$4.70

$49.74

$30.89

$11.91

$4.59$1.77

$0.00

$10.00

$20.00

$30.00

$40.00

$50.00

$60.00

2010 2020 2030 2040 2046

Year

$/MMB

TU

120% of Supp Att J

Dark Blue Base Line Shows Xcel's Average Projected Coal Costs from Supplemental Attachment JSee LWG 4 w ith Hearing Exhibit 121

Coal Costs Escalated at 5% Per Year

Coal Costs Escalated at 10% Per Year

2) The True Cost of Coal = ????? Cents/kwh

1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004-2009)

Actual Coal Cost >10%/Year

Xcel Models Coal Cost<2%/Year

Municipal Rates?Likely to Meet or Beat Xcel:

•Up to 40% Renewable Energy

•Reasonable Acquisition Costs

•Reasonable Stranded Costs

•Bond Rates Under 8%

Details at www.renewablesyes.org

Hundreds of Modeling Runs Done in 2011:Cannot Get Further Refinement without

Final Acquisition and Stranded Cost Numbers

Municipal Reliability?

Munis Typically Have Better Reliability Than IOU’s.

Colorado Springs, Loveland and

Fort Collins

All Have Substantially Better Reliability

Than Xcel Hasin Either Boulder or Denver

RequiremeRequirementnt

XcelXcel MuniBMuniB

Path to Path to 100% 100% Renew.Renew.

No.No.Chained to coal.Chained to coal.

Yes.Yes.Extensive Extensive modeling.modeling.

Minimize Minimize CarbonCarbon

No. 30% reduction No. 30% reduction 2018.2018.

Chained to coal.Chained to coal.

Yes. 50 – 80% Yes. 50 – 80% redctionredction

coal to gas = 50%coal to gas = 50%

ReliabilityReliability YesYes Yes. Competition. Yes. Competition. Hire experience.Hire experience.

Rates Rates CompetitiveCompetitive

??????And up 7% so far this And up 7% so far this

yearyear

Yes.Yes.Extensive Extensive modeling.modeling.

Rates Rates StabilizedStabilized

No.No.Business modelBusiness model

Yes.Yes.Lots of Lots of

renewables…renewables…

Local ControlLocal Control NoNo Yes.Yes.Our voice can be Our voice can be

heardheard

Growable Growable beyond beyond BoulderBoulder

n/a.n/a.Nothing to grow.Nothing to grow.

Yes.Yes.

Citizens Lead the Way!! •Express Enthusiasm

•Letters to the Editor and Op-Eds

•Blog on Daily Camera

•Arrange a Talk/Sponsor a Forum

•House Party

•Attend Planning Meetings

2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region—Graphic by Ventyx

Red = Powder River Basin