xcel: an update clean energy action january 26, 2012 leslie glustrom 303-245-8637...
TRANSCRIPT
Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Electricity…
Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf
ElectricityKyoto Target
Decadal mean surface temperature anomalies relative to base period 1951-1980.
Source: update of Hansen et al., GISS analysis of surface temperature change. J. Geophys. Res.104, 30997-31022, 1999.
http://americasclimatechoices.org/ Chapter 6, page 174, Natl Academies of Science Report 2010Originally from Meehl 2007—Fig 10-8, IPCC Volume I (2007) www.ipcc.ch
Projected Temp Changes Relative to 1961-1990
Source: National Snow Ice and Data Center
Arctic Summer Sea Ice Melt Compared to IPCC Model Projections
0%
Transportation24%
Residential/Commerical/
Industrial Fuel Use18%
Fossil Fuel Production
9%
Agriculture8%
Industrial Processes
2%
Waste Management
2%
Primary Components of Colorado's Greenhouse Gas Emissions
Electricity36.9%
Coal 88%of electricity
Natural Gas12% of electrcitiy
Source: Center for Climate Solutions GHG Inventory for Colorado Oct 2007Available from www.rockymountainclimate.org
Colorado’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Source: Boulder Climate Action Plan Update October 2009http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/CAP_Guide.pdf
Source of Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Emissions by Sector
October 2009 Update
57% of Boulder’s GHGs From Electricity
•11% Residential
•46% Comm/IndElectricity
Elect
ricity
Transportation
Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Electricity…
Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf
ElectricityKyoto Target
Xcel Fuel Percentage 2009
35.60%
10% 1.70% 0.05%
52.50%
Coal Natural Gas
WindHydro Solar
Data from Xcel's 2009 Fuel Mix Bill Insert (08/10)
Xcel’s Colorado Fuel Mix 2009-2010
200952% Coal
Xcel Fuel Mix 2010 Projected
68.80%
0.49%11.50%
16.70%
0.30%
Coal
Natural Gas
Wind Hydro Solar
Data Provided by Xcel in the 09AL-299E Rate Case Docket, Colorado PUC
2010 Projected68% Coal
Boulder’s Greenhouse Gas Inventory
Electricity…
Source: City of Boulder Climate Action Plan Assessment July 2009 http://www.bouldercolorado.gov/files/Environmental%20Affairs/climate%20and%20energy/City_of_Boulder_ALL_SECTIONS_FINAL_072809_v9.pdf
ElectricityKyoto Target
Maps and Resource Potential from Colorado Governor’s Energy OfficeInformation on Wind and Solar Bids from Xcel Energy
Repowering and Decarbonizing Colorado
Colorado’sWind Potential Approx 96 GW
Colorado’s Solar PotentialOver 200 GW
To Meet Peak Demand, Colorado Needs About 12 GW (12,000 MW)
Colorado has the Potential for Over 300 GW of Wind and Solar….
And Many Companies Ready to Build Projects.
Clearly, we can largely decarbonize our electricity--IF we decide to do it!
7,617
10,000
3,000
1,000
5,000
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
6,000
7,000
8,000
9,000
10,000
Meg
awat
ts (M
W)
Xcel's Peak Wind Solar Biomass Natural Gas
Type of Bid
Xcel's April 10, 2009 BidsSource:Denver Business Journal May 1, 2009
Xcel's Peak = Projected 2009 Peak (6566 MW) Plus 16% Reserve Margin (1051) = Total (7617 MW)From February 2009 Loads and Resources Table Submitted March 19, 2009 to the Colorado PUC
Source: Xcel’s 30 Day Report 2009 All Source RFP, Colorado PUC, May 2009
GOOD NEWS!!!Xcel Receives Over 15,000 MW of
Renewable Energy Bids in April 2009
Wind10,000 MW
Solar3,000 MW
Xcel’s Peak LoadApprox. 7,600 MW(90% Fossil Fuel)
Xcel Has Over 14,000 MW of Clean Energy Projects Ready to Go
Clean Energy Alternatives to the Valmont Coal Plant
Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report on April 2009 Bids—Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC
Source: Xcel’s 120 Day Report April 2009 RFP Docket 07A-447E Colorado PUC
Xcel: System Cost Savings From Renewable Energy
$3.02$2.47$2.11$2.07
$9.76$7.65
$4.70
$49.74
$30.89
$11.91
$4.59$1.77
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
2010 2020 2030 2040 2046
Year
$/MMB
TU
120% of Supp Att J
Dark Blue Base Line Shows Xcel's Average Projected Coal Costs from Supplemental Attachment JSee LWG 4 w ith Hearing Exhibit 121
Coal Costs Escalated at 5% Per Year
Coal Costs Escalated at 10% Per Year
2) The True Cost of Coal = ????? Cents/kwh
1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004-2009)
Actual Coal Cost >10%/Year
Xcel Models Coal Cost<2%/Year
Source: KTH-5 (Xcel Witness Karen Hyde) Docket 10M-245E Colorado PUC
Xcel’s Projections of Future Rate Increases 2015-2020(Assuming no carbon charges and almost flat coal prices; 2010 rates between 9-10 cents/kwh)
0
20
40
60
80
100
120
Mill
ion
$
2007 2008 2009
Xcel's Operating Income and Expenses City of Boulder 2007-2009
Operating Income
Operating Expenses
Source: Annual Reports from Xcel to the City of Boulder
Source: www.xcelenergy.com
Xcel’s Indebtedness
List of Things to Try Before Considering
Municipalization
Carbon TaxDemand Side MeasuresPUC InvolvementCommunity Choice AggregationFranchise NegotiationsApproach Xcel with Request
Colorado Municipal Colorado Municipal UtilitiesUtilities29 Colorado Munis:
Lyons, Loveland, Longmont, Fort Collins, Colorado Springs, etc
Source: CAMUColorado Association of Municipal Utilities
RenewablesYESA Remarkable Volunteer Effort
Key Questions for Citizen Experts:
1)How Much Renewable Energy?
1)What Will it Do to Rates?
Boulder’s Load
100 MWbaseload100 MW “Baseload”
i.e. “Coal”
20% Renewable Electricity
100 MWbaseload
30% Renewable Electricity
100 MWbaseload
30% Renewable Electricity
Around 30% Renewables, Baseload Coal & Nuclear
make no sense.
100 MWbaseload
50% RE. 0 Battery. 4% Overgeneration
How do we get to 100% How do we get to 100% Renewable Electricity?Renewable Electricity?
To get to 100% - practical tech isn’t obvious.
%%RenewablRenewabl
eses(variable (variable generatiogeneratio
n)n)
Controllable Controllable GenerationGeneration
SolarSolarWindWindEtcEtc
Short Short Storage Storage
(seconds to (seconds to days)days)
Tech ExistsTech Exists
Long Long StorageStorage
(weeks to (weeks to years)years)
No TechNo Tech
Up to 25%Up to 25% MixMixNimble Nimble
Peaking.Peaking.Static Static
baseload.baseload.
YesYesMostly Mostly
wind OKwind OK
Up to 50%Up to 50% Nimble Nimble PeakingPeakingFuel gas.Fuel gas.
More. More. Must MixMust MixWind & Wind & SolarSolar
Up to 75%Up to 75% Nimble Nimble PeakingPeakingFuel gas.Fuel gas.
And MoreAnd More YesYes
Up to 100%Up to 100% Nimble Nimble PeakingPeaking
With nimble With nimble fuelfuel
And MoreAnd More YesYes Yes, but…Yes, but…
Xcel…Chained to CoalXcel…Chained to Coal
2011 to 2018 Approx. $400 Million Pollution Controls for Brush and Hayden
(Won’t Address CO2) Dockets 10M-245E and 11A-325E Colorado PUC
Over 1800 MW of Coal Through 2033
Pueblo 1170 MW Retire 2033, 2035, 2069Brush 505 MW Retire 2041Hayden 237 MW Retire 2025 and 2036Craig 84 MW Retire 2040 and 2039
Xcel Path: Approx 60% Electricity from Coal in 2011 and 35% in 2030
Muni Renewable % (at Rate Match)
Xcel Renewable % (under 2010 RPS)
Graphs by “Renewables Yes “ Using Data from Xcel Provided to City of Boulder and in PUC Dockets
Renewable % Comparison—Xcel v Boulder Municipal at Rate Parity
Fossil Fuel Use—Xcel Projections v Boulder Muni at Rate Match
Graph by “Renewables Yes” Using Data from Xcel and Modeling Projections; Source data available on request.
Xcel Total Fossil Fuel Use
Muni Total Fossil Fuel Use
$3.02$2.47$2.11$2.07
$9.76$7.65
$4.70
$49.74
$30.89
$11.91
$4.59$1.77
$0.00
$10.00
$20.00
$30.00
$40.00
$50.00
$60.00
2010 2020 2030 2040 2046
Year
$/MMB
TU
120% of Supp Att J
Dark Blue Base Line Shows Xcel's Average Projected Coal Costs from Supplemental Attachment JSee LWG 4 w ith Hearing Exhibit 121
Coal Costs Escalated at 5% Per Year
Coal Costs Escalated at 10% Per Year
2) The True Cost of Coal = ????? Cents/kwh
1)The Delivered Price of Coal Going Up >10%/Year (2004-2009)
Actual Coal Cost >10%/Year
Xcel Models Coal Cost<2%/Year
Municipal Rates?Likely to Meet or Beat Xcel:
•Up to 40% Renewable Energy
•Reasonable Acquisition Costs
•Reasonable Stranded Costs
•Bond Rates Under 8%
Details at www.renewablesyes.org
Hundreds of Modeling Runs Done in 2011:Cannot Get Further Refinement without
Final Acquisition and Stranded Cost Numbers
Municipal Reliability?
Munis Typically Have Better Reliability Than IOU’s.
Colorado Springs, Loveland and
Fort Collins
All Have Substantially Better Reliability
Than Xcel Hasin Either Boulder or Denver
RequiremeRequirementnt
XcelXcel MuniBMuniB
Path to Path to 100% 100% Renew.Renew.
No.No.Chained to coal.Chained to coal.
Yes.Yes.Extensive Extensive modeling.modeling.
Minimize Minimize CarbonCarbon
No. 30% reduction No. 30% reduction 2018.2018.
Chained to coal.Chained to coal.
Yes. 50 – 80% Yes. 50 – 80% redctionredction
coal to gas = 50%coal to gas = 50%
ReliabilityReliability YesYes Yes. Competition. Yes. Competition. Hire experience.Hire experience.
Rates Rates CompetitiveCompetitive
??????And up 7% so far this And up 7% so far this
yearyear
Yes.Yes.Extensive Extensive modeling.modeling.
Rates Rates StabilizedStabilized
No.No.Business modelBusiness model
Yes.Yes.Lots of Lots of
renewables…renewables…
Local ControlLocal Control NoNo Yes.Yes.Our voice can be Our voice can be
heardheard
Growable Growable beyond beyond BoulderBoulder
n/a.n/a.Nothing to grow.Nothing to grow.
Yes.Yes.
Citizens Lead the Way!! •Express Enthusiasm
•Letters to the Editor and Op-Eds
•Blog on Daily Camera
•Arrange a Talk/Sponsor a Forum
•House Party
•Attend Planning Meetings
2005 Coal Deliveries to Power Plants by Region—Graphic by Ventyx
Red = Powder River Basin