webinar: transit to the future - a different perspective on public transit market

Transportation Research at McGill

Ahmed El-Geneidy

BRT - Centre of Excellence

Webinar Series

November 7th, 2014

Transit to the Future

A different perspective on public transit market

October 2015 is not far

This is where we are

This is where we will be soon

Challenges

Increasing transit ridership

A better understanding of transit market

Retaining riders

Attracting new users

Retaining users

Satisfaction

Loyalty

Transit market

Irregular

Captives

users

Choice

users

Potential

users

Auto

Captives

Riders Non-Riders

Regular

Co

mm

ute

r T

yp

e

Current and Potential Transit Market

Change Area

Krizek, K., & El-Geneidy, A. (2007)

Transit market

segmentationPart 1a

Case Study: Market segmentation of Montreal

Part 1bCase Study: Market

segmentation of Vancouver

Input: DataSociété de transport de

Montréal’s Customer Satisfaction Survey

Input: DataTransLink’s Customer Satisfaction Survey

(Vancouver)

What kind of transit segments are present in Montreal and Vancouver, and how similar are they?

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

Transit market

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

Transit market

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

Weekday Weekend

Regular Irregular Regular Irregular

Ch

oic

e

Cap

tive

by

cho

ice

Cap

tive

Ch

oic

e

Cap

tive

by

cho

ice

Cap

tive

Ch

oic

e

Cap

tive

by

cho

ice

Cap

tive

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Cap

tive

by

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ice

Cap

tive

STM 50.13% 19.05% 9.51% 7.29% 2.53% 6.18% 3.54% -- -- 1.77% -- --

TransLink 32.80% -- 2.44% 21.09% 8.29% 12.67% 3.99% 1.11% 4.65% 2.67% 10.29% --

Transit market

Irregular

Captives

users

Choice

users

Potential

users

Auto

Captives

Riders Non-Riders

Regular

Co

mm

ute

r T

yp

e

Current and Potential Transit Market

Change Area

Krizek, K., & El-Geneidy, A. (2007)

Transit market

Irregular

Riders Non-Riders

Regular

Co

mm

ute

r T

yp

e

Current Transit Market

Captives

by Choice

Choice

users

Captives

users

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

It’s a new market

With different dynamics

Different needs

Factors affecting the market

Low cost of transit

Convenience

Service Improvement

van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)

Some trends from Montreal

Trip Counts by Mode

Trip Counts by Mode

Who is using transit

Grimsrud, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

Longer waiting times

More crowded

Some breakdowns

Improvement strategies

Increase speed

Decrease delay

Be on-time

Be cool

Differences in perspectives

Using indicators (e.g. OTP and Travel time)

Service delivery

scale

High

Low

Passengers

Perc

epti

on

Act

ual

ser

vice

Travel time

Waiting time

The average

Satisfaction scale

High

Low

Agencies

Average performance

Diab, E., Badami, M. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

Change in perspectives

Using indicators (e.g. OTP and Travel time)

Service delivery

scale

High

Low

Passengers

Travel time

Waiting time

The average

Satisfaction scale

High

Low

Agencies

Act

ual

ser

vice

The implementation of improvement strategy(s)

Perception of change

Earlier perceptions

Witnessing the implementation

Average performance

Diab, E., Badami, M. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

Route 67 and 467 story

One of the heaviest used bus corridor on the island of Montreal

Average of 41,000 riders per weekday in 2011

East of the central business district

With an average length of 9.56 km [5.9 mi]

Connects to two metro stations

Joliette - Saint-Michel

Saint-Michel metro

Joliette metro

Downtown Montreal

Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

Improvement strategies

Express bus service (3/2009)

Exclusive bus lane (8/2009)

Articulated buses (2/2010)

Signal priority (9/2010)

Running time savings

Route 467 (Express) Route 67 (Regular)

Scenario Optimistic Pessimistic Realistic After Optimistic Pessimistic Realistic After

Peak AM Southbound 38.4% 11.3% 19.9% 13.7% 21.7% 0.0% 12.5% 1.1%

Peak AM Northbound 45.3% 12.5% 23.0% 14.2% 24.7% 0.0% 14.2% 1.6%

Peak PM Southbound 38.6% 11.4% 20.0% 13.3% 21.8% 0.0% 12.6% -0.2%

Peak PM Northbound 39.1% 11.3% 20.4% 12.2% 21.8% 0.0% 12.5% 1.5%

Estimates versus actual savings

Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2012)

All savings in running time

Route 467

ScenarioInitial

situation

Reserved

lanes

Articulated

BusesTSP

North AM Peak 1440(-11.5%) 1486(-8.7%) 1467(-9.8%)

North PM Peak 1534(-10.8%) 1498(-12.9%) 1544(-10.2%) 1526(-11.3%)

South AM Peak 1500(-11.1%) 1465(-13.2%) 1511(-10.5%) 1492(-11.5%)

South PM Peak 1588(-10.8%) 1634(-8.2%) 1616(-9.3%)

Route 67

ScenarioInitial

situationOPUS

After the

limited-stop

service

Reserved

lanes

After Articulated

dateAfter TSP date

North AM Peak 1627 1677(3.1%) 1632(0.3%) 1665 (2.4%) 1661 (2.1%)

North PM Peak 1720 1770(2.9%) 1725(0.3%) 1690 (-1.7%) 1724 (0.2%) 1719 (-0.1%)

South AM Peak 1687 1737(3.0%) 1692(0.3%) 1657 (-1.8%) 1694 (0.4%) 1686 (-0.1%)

South PM Peak 1781 1831(2.8%) 1787(0.4%) 1819 (2.2%) 1815 (1.9%)

Estimated Running time in seconds and the percentage of change comparing to Route 67 initial situations

Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2012)

Customer surveys

Route 467 is 10.5%

faster

Route 67 is 1%

slower

Survey passengers

2011, 2012, & 2013

Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

55%

10%

35%

Route 67 Travel Time Change

Shorter Travel Time Longer Travel Time No change

49%

7%

44%

Route 467 Travel Time Change

Shorter Travel Time Longer Travel Time No change

Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)

Take home lesson

Keep younger generations on-board

Try to attract more of them and make them happy

Free wifi

Cycling transit integrations

Better information

Implement improvements in phases

The long term future

The future is in

public transit along

heavily served

corridors

Moving people

quickly, with low

cost, and in

comfortable and

attractive vehicles.

Acknowledgment

Ehab Diab Dea van LieropMichael Grimsrud

Data, support and funding

The Société de Transport de Montréal provided

data and partially funded this research

The Natural Sciences and Engineering

Research Council of Canada (NSERC) partially

funded this research

Several members of the TRAM research group,

participated in conducting the on-site survey

Transportation Research at McGill

Transit to the Future

A different perspective on public transit market

Ahmed El-Geneidy

ahmed.elgeneidy@mcgill.ca