webinar: transit to the future - a different perspective on public transit market
TRANSCRIPT
Transportation Research at McGill
Ahmed El-Geneidy
BRT - Centre of Excellence
Webinar Series
November 7th, 2014
Transit to the Future
A different perspective on public transit market
October 2015 is not far
This is where we are
This is where we will be soon
Challenges
Increasing transit ridership
A better understanding of transit market
Retaining riders
Attracting new users
Retaining users
Satisfaction
Loyalty
Transit market
Irregular
Captives
users
Choice
users
Potential
users
Auto
Captives
Riders Non-Riders
Regular
Co
mm
ute
r T
yp
e
Current and Potential Transit Market
Change Area
Krizek, K., & El-Geneidy, A. (2007)
Transit market
segmentationPart 1a
Case Study: Market segmentation of Montreal
Part 1bCase Study: Market
segmentation of Vancouver
Input: DataSociété de transport de
Montréal’s Customer Satisfaction Survey
Input: DataTransLink’s Customer Satisfaction Survey
(Vancouver)
What kind of transit segments are present in Montreal and Vancouver, and how similar are they?
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
Transit market
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
Transit market
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
Weekday Weekend
Regular Irregular Regular Irregular
Ch
oic
e
Cap
tive
by
cho
ice
Cap
tive
Ch
oic
e
Cap
tive
by
cho
ice
Cap
tive
Ch
oic
e
Cap
tive
by
cho
ice
Cap
tive
Ch
oic
e
Cap
tive
by
cho
ice
Cap
tive
STM 50.13% 19.05% 9.51% 7.29% 2.53% 6.18% 3.54% -- -- 1.77% -- --
TransLink 32.80% -- 2.44% 21.09% 8.29% 12.67% 3.99% 1.11% 4.65% 2.67% 10.29% --
Transit market
Irregular
Captives
users
Choice
users
Potential
users
Auto
Captives
Riders Non-Riders
Regular
Co
mm
ute
r T
yp
e
Current and Potential Transit Market
Change Area
Krizek, K., & El-Geneidy, A. (2007)
Transit market
Irregular
Riders Non-Riders
Regular
Co
mm
ute
r T
yp
e
Current Transit Market
Captives
by Choice
Choice
users
Captives
users
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
It’s a new market
With different dynamics
Different needs
Factors affecting the market
Low cost of transit
Convenience
Service Improvement
van Lierop, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2015)
Some trends from Montreal
Trip Counts by Mode
Trip Counts by Mode
Who is using transit
Grimsrud, D. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
Longer waiting times
More crowded
Some breakdowns
Improvement strategies
Increase speed
Decrease delay
Be on-time
Be cool
Differences in perspectives
Using indicators (e.g. OTP and Travel time)
Service delivery
scale
High
Low
Passengers
Perc
epti
on
Act
ual
ser
vice
Travel time
Waiting time
The average
Satisfaction scale
High
Low
Agencies
Average performance
Diab, E., Badami, M. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
Change in perspectives
Using indicators (e.g. OTP and Travel time)
Service delivery
scale
High
Low
Passengers
Travel time
Waiting time
The average
Satisfaction scale
High
Low
Agencies
Act
ual
ser
vice
The implementation of improvement strategy(s)
Perception of change
Earlier perceptions
Witnessing the implementation
Average performance
Diab, E., Badami, M. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
Route 67 and 467 story
One of the heaviest used bus corridor on the island of Montreal
Average of 41,000 riders per weekday in 2011
East of the central business district
With an average length of 9.56 km [5.9 mi]
Connects to two metro stations
Joliette - Saint-Michel
Saint-Michel metro
Joliette metro
Downtown Montreal
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
Improvement strategies
Express bus service (3/2009)
Exclusive bus lane (8/2009)
Articulated buses (2/2010)
Signal priority (9/2010)
Running time savings
Route 467 (Express) Route 67 (Regular)
Scenario Optimistic Pessimistic Realistic After Optimistic Pessimistic Realistic After
Peak AM Southbound 38.4% 11.3% 19.9% 13.7% 21.7% 0.0% 12.5% 1.1%
Peak AM Northbound 45.3% 12.5% 23.0% 14.2% 24.7% 0.0% 14.2% 1.6%
Peak PM Southbound 38.6% 11.4% 20.0% 13.3% 21.8% 0.0% 12.6% -0.2%
Peak PM Northbound 39.1% 11.3% 20.4% 12.2% 21.8% 0.0% 12.5% 1.5%
Estimates versus actual savings
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2012)
All savings in running time
Route 467
ScenarioInitial
situation
Reserved
lanes
Articulated
BusesTSP
North AM Peak 1440(-11.5%) 1486(-8.7%) 1467(-9.8%)
North PM Peak 1534(-10.8%) 1498(-12.9%) 1544(-10.2%) 1526(-11.3%)
South AM Peak 1500(-11.1%) 1465(-13.2%) 1511(-10.5%) 1492(-11.5%)
South PM Peak 1588(-10.8%) 1634(-8.2%) 1616(-9.3%)
Route 67
ScenarioInitial
situationOPUS
After the
limited-stop
service
Reserved
lanes
After Articulated
dateAfter TSP date
North AM Peak 1627 1677(3.1%) 1632(0.3%) 1665 (2.4%) 1661 (2.1%)
North PM Peak 1720 1770(2.9%) 1725(0.3%) 1690 (-1.7%) 1724 (0.2%) 1719 (-0.1%)
South AM Peak 1687 1737(3.0%) 1692(0.3%) 1657 (-1.8%) 1694 (0.4%) 1686 (-0.1%)
South PM Peak 1781 1831(2.8%) 1787(0.4%) 1819 (2.2%) 1815 (1.9%)
Estimated Running time in seconds and the percentage of change comparing to Route 67 initial situations
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2012)
Customer surveys
Route 467 is 10.5%
faster
Route 67 is 1%
slower
Survey passengers
2011, 2012, & 2013
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
55%
10%
35%
Route 67 Travel Time Change
Shorter Travel Time Longer Travel Time No change
49%
7%
44%
Route 467 Travel Time Change
Shorter Travel Time Longer Travel Time No change
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
Diab, E. & El-Geneidy, A. (2014)
Take home lesson
Keep younger generations on-board
Try to attract more of them and make them happy
Free wifi
Cycling transit integrations
Better information
Implement improvements in phases
The long term future
The future is in
public transit along
heavily served
corridors
Moving people
quickly, with low
cost, and in
comfortable and
attractive vehicles.
Acknowledgment
Ehab Diab Dea van LieropMichael Grimsrud
Data, support and funding
The Société de Transport de Montréal provided
data and partially funded this research
The Natural Sciences and Engineering
Research Council of Canada (NSERC) partially
funded this research
Several members of the TRAM research group,
participated in conducting the on-site survey
Transportation Research at McGill
Transit to the Future
A different perspective on public transit market
Ahmed El-Geneidy