webinar - a plan for powering the world for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight

A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes With Wind, Water, and Sunlight

Mark Z. JacobsonAtmosphere/Energy ProgramDept. of Civil & Environmental EngineeringStanford UniversityThanks to Mark Delucchi, Cristina Archer, Elaine Hart, MikeDvorak, Eric Stoutenburg, Bethany Corcoran, John Ten Hoeve

Leonardo Energy

Webinar, June 16, 2011

What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?

A. Temperatures are rising rapidly

B. Arctic sea ice area is decreasing quickly

C. Air pollution mortality is one of five leading causes of death worldwide, and higher temperatures contribute to deaths

D. Higher population and growing energy demand will result in worsening air pollution and climate problems over time.

Mean Global Temperature Anomalies

NASA GISS, 2011

Warmest years1. 2010/20052. -3. 20094. 2007/19985. -6. 20027. 2003/20068. -9. 2001/200410. -

Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2011

nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews

Lowest years20112005200620072009

1979-2000 mean 15.6 m sq km

Norilsk, Russia

http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Sukinda, India

http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html

Linfen, China

Asian Brown Cloud Over China

NASA/ORBIMAGE

Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s & PM Trends in California

SCAQMD/CARB

Each 10 υg/m3 PM2.5 in yearly avg. reduces life 5-10 mon. (Pope et al., 2009); ~18,000 (5600-23,000) PM2.5 deaths/yr Calif. (ibid.); 50,000-100,000 deaths/yr U.S.; 2.5-3 mill/yr world. Average person in big U.S. city loses 2 yrs.

Steps for Determining Solution to Problems

1. Rank energy technologies in terms ofCarbon-dioxide equivalent emissionsAir pollution mortalityWater consumptionFootprint on the ground and total spacing requiredResource abundanceAbility to match peak demand

2. Evaluate replacing 100% of energy with best technologies interms of resources, materials, matching supply, costs, politics

Electricity/Vehicle Options Studied

Electricity options Vehicle OptionsWind turbines Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs)Solarphotovoltaics (PV) Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs)Geothermal power plants Corn ethanol (E85)Tidal turbines Cellulosic ethanol (E85)Wave devicesConcentrated solar power (CSP)Hydroelectric power plantsNuclear power plantsCoal with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)

Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power

www.mywindpowersystem.com

Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power

www.gizmag.comwww.inhabitat.commyecoproject.orgwww.sir-ray.com

Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power

www.solarthermalmagazine.comi.treehugger.com

TorresolGemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero

Tesla Roadster all electric

Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid busHydrogen fuel cell bus

Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles

Nissan Leaf all electric Tesla Model S all electric

Electric truck

Zmships.eu

Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships & Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen Aircraft

Ecofriend.org

Ec.europa.euElectric ship

Midlandpower.com

Heat pump water heater

Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater

Conservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com

Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

350

400

450

Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS

High Est.Low Est.

Time Between Planning & OperationNuclear: 10 - 19 y (life 40 y)

Site permit: 3.5 - 6 yConstruction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 yConstruction time 4 - 9 years

Hydroelectric: 8 - 16 y (life 80 y)Coal-CCS: 6 - 11 y (life 35 y)Geothermal: 3 - 6 y (life 35 y)Ethanol, CSP, Solar-PV, Wave, Tidal, Wind: 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)

0

50

100

150

Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS

CO2e From Current Power Mix due to Planning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind

High Est.Low Est.

050

100150200250300350400450500550600

Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS

Total CO2e of Electricity Sources

Low Est. High Est.

Change in U.S. CO2 (%) From Converting to BEVs, HFCVs, or E85

0

3000

6000

9000

12000

15000

18000

21000

24000

27000

Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet

Nuclear Terrorism or War

WindBEV

WindHFCV

CSPBEV

PVBEV

GeoBEV

TidalBEV

WaveBEV

HydroBEV

NuclearBEV

CCSBEV

CornE85

CellE85

Gasoline

High Est.Low Est.

Wind Footprints

www.offshore-power.net

Pro.corbins.com

Pro.corbins.com

www.npower-renewables.comwww.eng.uoo.ca

Nuclear Footprints

wwwdelivery.superstock.com; Pro.corbis.com; Eyeball-series.org; xs124.xs.to

Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles

Cellulosic E854.7-35.4% of US

Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%

Corn E859.8-17.6% of

US

Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2

Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US

Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%

Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%Footprint 33%of total; the rest is buffer

6.57.07.58.08.59.09.59.9

East Coast Offshore WindIn areas of CF>45% (8.8-9.9 m/s)

and excluding 1/3 of area173 GW avg. power 19 GW <30 m depth 37 GW <50 m 117 GW <200 mUS electricity demand:

454 GW (EIA, 2009)

Dvorak, M.J., Corcoran, B.A., McIntyre, N.G., Jacobson, M.Z..Offshore wind energy resource characterization of the US East Coast. In preparation.

90m WRF-ARW model results for 2010

Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles

U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr

Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security – Energy &Env. Sci, 2, 148

(2009)Electric Power VehiclesRecommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. Hydroelectricity

Not Recommended

Nuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas

Powering the World on RenewablesGlobal end-use power demand 2010 12.5 TW

Global end-use power demand 2030 with current fuels16.9 TW

Global end-use power demand 2030 converting all energy to wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H211.5 TW (30% reduction)

Conversion to electricity, H2 reduces power demand 30%

Number of Plants or Devices to Power WorldTechnology Percent Supply 2030 Number

5-MW wind turbines50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place)0.75-MW wave devices1 720,000100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place)1300-MW hydro plants4 900 (70% in place)1-MW tidal turbines1 490,0003-kW Roof PV systems6 1.7 billion300-MW Solar PV plants14 40,000300-MW CSP plants20 49,000

____100%

World Wind Speeds at 100m

-180 -90 0 18090

0

-90

90

6

2

10

4

8

All wind worldwide: 1700 TW;All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW

World Surface Solar

All solar worldwide: 6500 TW;All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW

Methods of addressing variability of WWS1. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources

2. Bundling WWS resources as one commodity and usinghydroelectricity to fill in gaps in supply

3. Using demand-response management

4. Oversizing peak generation capacity and producinghydrogen with excess for industry, transportation

5. Storing electric power on site or in BEVs (e.g., VTG)

6. Forecasting winds and cloudiness better to reduce reserves

Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites and Bundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for CaliforniaFor 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more

Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/

Desertec

www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg

Reserve Base for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine GeneratorsCountry Reserve Base Needed to power 50% of world with wind

U.S.2.1Australia1.0China16.0CIS3.8India0.2Others4.1World27.3 4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years)

Current production: 0.022 Tg/yr Jacobson &Delucchi (2011)

periodictable.com

Reserve Base for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries

Country Reserve Base Possible number of vehicles @10kg/eachU.S.0.41 with current known land reservesAustralia0.22China1.1Bolivia5.4Chile3.0Argentina?Afghanistan?World land11+ 1.1 billion+ (currently 800 million)Oceans240

Jacobson &Delucchi (2011)

www.saltsale.com

Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)

Energy Technology 2005-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7 ≤4Wind offshore 10-17 8-13Wave >>11 4-11Geothermal 4-7 4-7Hydroelectric 4 4CSP 11-15 8Solar PV>20 10Tidal >>11 5-7Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5)=12 8 (+5.5) =13.5

Delucchi& Jacobson (2010)

Long-Distance Transmission Costs (2007 $US) for Transmission 1200-2000 km

Low Med HighCost of l.d. transmission (¢/kWh)0.3 1.2 3.2

Delucchi& Jacobson (2010)

Summary2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS ,vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh

Includes long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh

Requires only 0.41% more of world land for footprint; 0.59% for spacing (compared w/40% of world land for cropland and pasture)

Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year

Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability

Summary, cont.Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 willreduce global power demand by 30%

Methods of addressing WWS variability: (a) interconnectinggeographically-dispersed WWS; (b) bundling WWS and using hydroto fill in gaps; (c) demand-response; (d) oversizing peak capacityand producing hydrogen with excess for industry, vehicles; (e) on-site storage; (f) forecasting

Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed.

Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.

Papers:www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html