webinar - a plan for powering the world for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight
DESCRIPTION
This talk discusses a plan to power 100% of the world’s energy for all purposes with wind, water, and sunlight (WWS) within the next 20-40 years. The talk starts by reviewing and ranking major proposed energy-related solutions to global warming, air pollution mortality, and energy security while considering other impacts of the proposed solutions, such as on water supply, land use, resource availability, reliability, wildlife, and catastrophic risk. It then evaluates a scenario for powering the world on the energy options determined to be the best while also considering materials, transmission infrastructure, costs, and politics. The study concludes that powering the world with wind, water, and solar technologies, which are found to be the best when all factors are considered, is technically feasible but politically challenging.Mark Z. Jacobson Dept. of Civil and Environmental Engineering, Stanford University. Jacobson is Director of the Atmosphere/Energy Program and Professor of Civil and Environmental Engineering at Stanford University. He is also a Courtesy Professor of Energy Resources Engineering, Senior Fellow of the Woods Institute for the Environment, and Senior Fellow of the Precourt Institute.TRANSCRIPT
A Plan for Powering the World for all Purposes With Wind, Water, and Sunlight
Mark Z. JacobsonAtmosphere/Energy ProgramDept. of Civil & Environmental EngineeringStanford UniversityThanks to Mark Delucchi, Cristina Archer, Elaine Hart, MikeDvorak, Eric Stoutenburg, Bethany Corcoran, John Ten Hoeve
Leonardo Energy
Webinar, June 16, 2011
What’s the Problem? Why Act Quickly?
A. Temperatures are rising rapidly
B. Arctic sea ice area is decreasing quickly
C. Air pollution mortality is one of five leading causes of death worldwide, and higher temperatures contribute to deaths
D. Higher population and growing energy demand will result in worsening air pollution and climate problems over time.
Mean Global Temperature Anomalies
NASA GISS, 2011
Warmest years1. 2010/20052. -3. 20094. 2007/19985. -6. 20027. 2003/20068. -9. 2001/200410. -
Arctic Sea Ice 1979-2011
nsidc.org/arcticseaicenews
Lowest years20112005200620072009
1979-2000 mean 15.6 m sq km
Norilsk, Russia
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Sukinda, India
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
http://www.worldinterestingfacts.com/infrastructure/top-10-most-polluted-cities-in-the-world.html
Linfen, China
Asian Brown Cloud Over China
NASA/ORBIMAGE
Lung of LA Teenage Nonsmoker in 1970s & PM Trends in California
SCAQMD/CARB
Each 10 υg/m3 PM2.5 in yearly avg. reduces life 5-10 mon. (Pope et al., 2009); ~18,000 (5600-23,000) PM2.5 deaths/yr Calif. (ibid.); 50,000-100,000 deaths/yr U.S.; 2.5-3 mill/yr world. Average person in big U.S. city loses 2 yrs.
Steps for Determining Solution to Problems
1. Rank energy technologies in terms ofCarbon-dioxide equivalent emissionsAir pollution mortalityWater consumptionFootprint on the ground and total spacing requiredResource abundanceAbility to match peak demand
2. Evaluate replacing 100% of energy with best technologies interms of resources, materials, matching supply, costs, politics
Electricity/Vehicle Options Studied
Electricity options Vehicle OptionsWind turbines Battery-Electric Vehicles (BEVs)Solarphotovoltaics (PV) Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles (HFCVs)Geothermal power plants Corn ethanol (E85)Tidal turbines Cellulosic ethanol (E85)Wave devicesConcentrated solar power (CSP)Hydroelectric power plantsNuclear power plantsCoal with carbon capture and sequestration (CCS)
Wind Power, Wind-Driven Wave Power
www.mywindpowersystem.com
Hydroelectric, Geothermal, Tidal Power
www.gizmag.comwww.inhabitat.commyecoproject.orgwww.sir-ray.com
Concentrated Solar Power, PV Power
www.solarthermalmagazine.comi.treehugger.com
TorresolGemasolar Spain, 15 hrs storage,Matthew Wright, Beyond Zero
Tesla Roadster all electric
Hydrogen fuel cell–electric hybrid busHydrogen fuel cell bus
Electric/Hydrogen Fuel Cell Vehicles
Nissan Leaf all electric Tesla Model S all electric
Electric truck
Zmships.eu
Electric and Hydrogen Fuel Cell Ships & Tractors; Liquid Hydrogen Aircraft
Ecofriend.org
Ec.europa.euElectric ship
Midlandpower.com
Heat pump water heater
Air-Source Heat Pump, Air Source Electric Water Heater, Solar Water Pre-Heater
Conservpros.com Adaptivebuilders.com
Lifecycle CO2e of Electricity Sources
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
450
Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS
High Est.Low Est.
Time Between Planning & OperationNuclear: 10 - 19 y (life 40 y)
Site permit: 3.5 - 6 yConstruction permit approval and issue 2.5 - 4 yConstruction time 4 - 9 years
Hydroelectric: 8 - 16 y (life 80 y)Coal-CCS: 6 - 11 y (life 35 y)Geothermal: 3 - 6 y (life 35 y)Ethanol, CSP, Solar-PV, Wave, Tidal, Wind: 2 - 5 y (life 40 y)
0
50
100
150
Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS
CO2e From Current Power Mix due to Planning-to-Operation Delays, Relative to Wind
High Est.Low Est.
050
100150200250300350400450500550600
Wind CSP Solar-PV Geoth Tidal Wave Hydro Nuclear Coal-CCS
Total CO2e of Electricity Sources
Low Est. High Est.
Change in U.S. CO2 (%) From Converting to BEVs, HFCVs, or E85
0
3000
6000
9000
12000
15000
18000
21000
24000
27000
Low/High U.S. Air Pollution Deaths/yr For 2020 Upon Conversion of U.S. Vehicle Fleet
Nuclear Terrorism or War
WindBEV
WindHFCV
CSPBEV
PVBEV
GeoBEV
TidalBEV
WaveBEV
HydroBEV
NuclearBEV
CCSBEV
CornE85
CellE85
Gasoline
High Est.Low Est.
Wind Footprints
www.offshore-power.net
Pro.corbins.com
Pro.corbins.com
www.npower-renewables.comwww.eng.uoo.ca
Nuclear Footprints
wwwdelivery.superstock.com; Pro.corbis.com; Eyeball-series.org; xs124.xs.to
Area to Power 100% of U.S. Onroad Vehicles
Cellulosic E854.7-35.4% of US
Solar PV-BEV0.077-0.18%
Corn E859.8-17.6% of
US
Wind-BEVFootprint 1-2.8 km2
Turbine spacing 0.35-0.7% of US
Geoth BEV0.006-0.008%
Nuclear-BEV0.05-0.062%Footprint 33%of total; the rest is buffer
6.57.07.58.08.59.09.59.9
East Coast Offshore WindIn areas of CF>45% (8.8-9.9 m/s)
and excluding 1/3 of area173 GW avg. power 19 GW <30 m depth 37 GW <50 m 117 GW <200 mUS electricity demand:
454 GW (EIA, 2009)
Dvorak, M.J., Corcoran, B.A., McIntyre, N.G., Jacobson, M.Z..Offshore wind energy resource characterization of the US East Coast. In preparation.
90m WRF-ARW model results for 2010
Water Consumed to Run U.S. Vehicles
U.S. water demand = 150,000 Ggal/yr
Cleanest Solutions to Global Warming, Air Pollution, Energy Security – Energy &Env. Sci, 2, 148
(2009)Electric Power VehiclesRecommended – Wind, Water, Sun (WWS)1. Wind 2. CSP WWS-Battery-Electric3. Geothermal 4. Tidal WWS-Hydrogen Fuel Cell5. PV 6. Wave7. Hydroelectricity
Not Recommended
Nuclear Corn, cellulosic, sugarcane ethanolCoal-CCS Soy, algae biodieselNatural gas, biomass Compressed natural gas
Powering the World on RenewablesGlobal end-use power demand 2010 12.5 TW
Global end-use power demand 2030 with current fuels16.9 TW
Global end-use power demand 2030 converting all energy to wind-water-sun (WWS) and electricty/H211.5 TW (30% reduction)
Conversion to electricity, H2 reduces power demand 30%
Number of Plants or Devices to Power WorldTechnology Percent Supply 2030 Number
5-MW wind turbines50% 3.8 mill. (0.8% in place)0.75-MW wave devices1 720,000100-MW geothermal plants 4 5350 (1.7% in place)1300-MW hydro plants4 900 (70% in place)1-MW tidal turbines1 490,0003-kW Roof PV systems6 1.7 billion300-MW Solar PV plants14 40,000300-MW CSP plants20 49,000
____100%
World Wind Speeds at 100m
-180 -90 0 18090
0
-90
90
6
2
10
4
8
All wind worldwide: 1700 TW;All wind over land in high-wind areas outside Antarctica ~ 70-170 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
World Surface Solar
All solar worldwide: 6500 TW;All solar over land in high-solar locations~ 340 TWWorld power demand 2030: 16.9 TW
Methods of addressing variability of WWS1. Interconnecting geographically-dispersed WWS resources
2. Bundling WWS resources as one commodity and usinghydroelectricity to fill in gaps in supply
3. Using demand-response management
4. Oversizing peak generation capacity and producinghydrogen with excess for industry, transportation
5. Storing electric power on site or in BEVs (e.g., VTG)
6. Forecasting winds and cloudiness better to reduce reserves
Matching Hourly Demand With WWS Supply by Aggregating Sites and Bundling WWS Resources – Least Cost Optimization for CaliforniaFor 99.8% of all hours in 2005, 2006, delivered CA elec. carbon free. Can oversize WWS capacity, use demand-response, forecast, store to reduce NG backup more
Hart and Jacobson (2011); www.stanford.edu/~ehart/
Desertec
www.dw-world.de/image/0,,4470611_1,00.jpg
Reserve Base for Nd2O3 (Tg) Used in Permanent Magnets for Wind Turbine GeneratorsCountry Reserve Base Needed to power 50% of world with wind
U.S.2.1Australia1.0China16.0CIS3.8India0.2Others4.1World27.3 4.4 (0.1 Tg/yr for 44 years)
Current production: 0.022 Tg/yr Jacobson &Delucchi (2011)
periodictable.com
Reserve Base for Lithium (Tg) Used in Batteries
Country Reserve Base Possible number of vehicles @10kg/eachU.S.0.41 with current known land reservesAustralia0.22China1.1Bolivia5.4Chile3.0Argentina?Afghanistan?World land11+ 1.1 billion+ (currently 800 million)Oceans240
Jacobson &Delucchi (2011)
www.saltsale.com
Costs of Energy, Including Transmission (¢/kWh)
Energy Technology 2005-2010 2020-2030Wind onshore 4-7 ≤4Wind offshore 10-17 8-13Wave >>11 4-11Geothermal 4-7 4-7Hydroelectric 4 4CSP 11-15 8Solar PV>20 10Tidal >>11 5-7Conventional (+Externalities) 7 (+5)=12 8 (+5.5) =13.5
Delucchi& Jacobson (2010)
Long-Distance Transmission Costs (2007 $US) for Transmission 1200-2000 km
Low Med HighCost of l.d. transmission (¢/kWh)0.3 1.2 3.2
Delucchi& Jacobson (2010)
Summary2030 electricity cost 4-10¢/kWh for most, 8-13 for some WWS ,vs. fossil-fuel 8 + 5.5 externality = 13.5¢/kWh
Includes long-distance transmission (1200-2000 km) ~1¢/kWh
Requires only 0.41% more of world land for footprint; 0.59% for spacing (compared w/40% of world land for cropland and pasture)
Eliminates 2.5-3 million air pollution deaths/year
Eliminates global warming, provides energy stability
Summary, cont.Converting to Wind, Water, & Sun (WWS) and electricity/H2 willreduce global power demand by 30%
Methods of addressing WWS variability: (a) interconnectinggeographically-dispersed WWS; (b) bundling WWS and using hydroto fill in gaps; (c) demand-response; (d) oversizing peak capacityand producing hydrogen with excess for industry, vehicles; (e) on-site storage; (f) forecasting
Materials are not limits although recycling may be needed.
Barriers : up-front costs, transmission needs, lobbying, politics.
Papers:www.stanford.edu/group/efmh/jacobson/Articles/I/susenergy2030.html