w. j. gutowski, r. w. arritt, g. s. takle, z. pan

W. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanW. J. Gutowski, R. W. Arritt, G. S. Takle, Z. PanInternational Institute of Theoretical and Applied International Institute of Theoretical and Applied

PhysicsPhysicsIowa State UniversityIowa State University

(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)(http://www.pircs.iastate.edu)

Project to Intercompare Regional Project to Intercompare Regional Climate SimulationsClimate Simulations

(PIRCS):(PIRCS):Lessons and Suggestions for an Lessons and Suggestions for an

Asian RMIPAsian RMIP

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

PIRCS Participating ModelsPIRCS Participating Models• Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)Danish Met. Inst. (HIRHAM4; J.H. Christensen, O.B. Christensen)

• Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)Université du Québec à Montréal (D. Caya, S. Biner)

• Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)Scripps Institution of Oceanography (RSM; J. Roads, S. Chen)

• NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong) NCEP (RSM; S.-Y. Hong)

• NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)NASA - Marshall (MM5/BATS; W. Lapenta)

• CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)CSIRO (DARLAM; J. McGregor, J. Katzfey)

• Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)Colorado State University (ClimRAMS; G. Liston)

• Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)Iowa State University (RegCM2; Z. Pan)

• Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)Iowa State University (MM5/LSM; D. Flory)

• Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)Univ. of Maryland / NASA-GSFC (GEOS; M. Fox-Rabinovitz)

• SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)SMHI / Rossby Centre (RCA; M. Rummukainen, C. Jones)

• NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)NOAA (RUC2; G. Grell)

• ETH (D. Luethi)ETH (D. Luethi)

• Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)Universidad Complutense Madrid (PROMES; M.Gaertner)

• Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)Université Catholique du Louvain (P. Marbaix)

• Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)Argnonne National Lab (MM5 V3; J. Taylor, J. Larson)

PIRCS MissionPIRCS Mission

Evaluate regional climate Evaluate regional climate simulation by mesoscale models, simulation by mesoscale models, using a using a common frameworkcommon framework

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Mesoscale Targets are Important!Mesoscale Targets are Important!

• Mesoscale Convective SystemsMesoscale Convective Systems

• Low-Level JetsLow-Level Jets

• Regional OrographyRegional Orography

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Further MotivationFurther Motivation

GCIP/G-NEPGCIP/G-NEP AgriculturalAgricultural Water cycle Water cycle

variabilityvariability Data availabilityData availability Strong signalStrong signal

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Summer 1988 - Drought

Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA

Jet Stream

Cool &Damp

Weak & Dry Southerly Flow

Heat Wave

Heat Wave

Summer 1993 - Flood

Adapted from CAC, NWS, NOAA

Jet StreamCool

Warm & Moist Southerly Flow

FLood

Model Domains

500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis

1988

500 hPa RMSD

0

20

40

60

80

100

136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196

Julian Day

RegCM2RAMSDARLAMHIRHAMScripps RSMNCEP RSMMM5-BATS

Spatially Averaged RMSD 500 hPa Geopotential Height1 June - 31 July 1993

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80

1-Jun 11-Jun 21-Jun 1-Jul 11-Jul 21-Jul 31-Jul

Date

RMSD (m)

DARLAM RSM - ScrippsHIRHAM MM5-BATSRSM-NCEP RegCM2Model Mean

500 hPa heights: Root Mean Square Difference from Reanalysis

1993

500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)

~ Reanalysis ~~ Reanalysis ~

500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)500 hPa Heights (1993-1988)

~ PIRCS Ensemble ~~ PIRCS Ensemble ~

LLJ figures

Precipitation RegionsPrecipitation Regions

UpperMiss.

Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysis

Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196

Julian Day

Observed

MM5-BATS

RSM-Scripps

RSM-NCEP

DARLAM

HIRHAM

RegCM2

RAMS

Comparison of PIRCS models with gridded precipitation analysis

Precipitation over Upper Mississippi River Basin

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

136 141 146 151 156 161 166 171 176 181 186 191 196

Julian Day

Observed

MM5-BATS

RSM-Scripps

RSM-NCEP

DARLAM

HIRHAM

RegCM2

RAMS

Mesoscale circ. & precip. Figures - day 160

Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJune 1988June 1988

[mm/d][mm/d]

CompositeComposite

-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10

Precip. BiasPrecip. BiasJuly 1993July 1993

[mm/d][mm/d]-10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10 -10 -8 -6 -4 -2 0 +2 +4 +6 +8 +10

CompositeComposite

1993 Contours: e ( = 6 K)Shaded: Precip > 300 mm

Tmin/max figures

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

OBSERVED

LatentSensibleInc. SW

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

NCEP RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

SCRIPPS RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

Hour

REGCM2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

MM5-BATS

Hour

CLIMRAMS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

ISU RAMS

Hour

HIRHAM DARLAM

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

OBSERVED

LatentSensibleInc. SW

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

NCEP RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

SCRIPPS RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

Hour

REGCM2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

MM5-BATS

Hour

CLIMRAMS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

ISU RAMS

Hour

HIRHAM DARLAM

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

OBSERVED

LatentSensibleInc. SW

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

NCEP RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

-400

-200

0

200

400

600

800

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

SCRIPPS RSM

[W-m

-2 ]

Hour

REGCM2

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

MM5-BATS

Hour

CLIMRAMS

0 3 6 9 12 15 18 21 24

ISU RAMS

Hour

HIRHAM DARLAM

Soil moisture spin-up: problem?

Lessons

• Ensembles are important– Reveal common problemsReveal common problems– Reveal unique problemsReveal unique problems– No model is “best”No model is “best”

• Distinction between problems of – Lateral forcing/dynamics (common)Lateral forcing/dynamics (common)– Surface processes (unique)Surface processes (unique)

Lessons

• Interannual climate variation– Simulated in large-scale dynamics– Muted in precipitation response

Lessons

Future Plans

• Same grid, multi-year– More truly climate simulation– Reduce initial conditions problem

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Future Plans

• Same grid, multi-year– More truly climate simulation– Reduce initial conditions problem

• PIRCS 2: South America - LBA– ENSO– Atmospheric heat source– Moisture inflow from Atlantic Ocean– Low-Level Jet?– Significant observational data bases

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Suggestions for Asian RMIP(1) Coordinate archive convections with

PIRCS-2 (under development)

- promote wider access/analysis

- sharing of diagnostic tools

- sharing of tools to transform output to standard format

(2) Use NetCDF

(3) Establish common file naming conventions

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Suggestions for Asian RMIP

(4) Other variables?

PIRCS 2 includes (among others): CAPE (3 hr) ISCCP clouds (3 hr) OLR (3 hr) 500 hPa vertical motion (3 hr) Precipitable water (3 hr) diabatic heating (monthly)

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)

Proposal for Standard Diagnostics and Data

Interchange Modules in PIRCSJay Larson

Mathematics and Computer Science Division / Argonne National

Laboratory

www.mcs.anl.gov/~larson

An Intercomparison Wish List

Common utilities for:• Writing and re-reading the agreed-upon

output format• Reading / interpolating model input data

format• Computation of diagnostic fields• Quality control• Visualization and analysis tools that work with

the output format

Schematic for PIRCS Diagnostics and Output Application Program:

• We supply application code, complete with time-stepping, filename generation, output module, and library routine calls

• User supplies module to read the model’s history files, returning the model fields required by the PIRCS application

AcknowledgmentsAcknowledgments

• Primary Funding: Primary Funding:

Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)Electric Power Research Institute (EPRI)• Guidance/Support: Guidance/Support:

Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay, Andrew Staniforth, Eugenia Kalnay,

Filippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP groupFilippo Giorgi, Roger Pielke, AMIP group• Special Thanks: Special Thanks:

Participating ModelersParticipating Modelers

Asian RMIP Workshop (June 2000)