agron / mteor 404 global change changes to water resources raymond arritt department of agronomy
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AGRON / MTEOR 404Global Change
Changes to Water Resources
Raymond Arritt
Department of Agronomy
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Effects of water resources
• erosion• Timing in crop growth cycle• Runoff – wastewater treatment, pollution• Groundwater depletion, subsidence• Distribution of rainfall, shifting patterns• Hydropower (energy)• Distribution of ecosystems; desertification
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• Effect on flood plains
• Water ownership – who gets to use it?
• Ecology and biodiversity – new species introduced, take over and lose diversity
• Shift in rainfall patterns (wet and dry regions)
• Sustainable development – building
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• Irrigation systems – change in demand• Energy production – cooling water for
powerplants and industry• Water conservation awareness• Snowmaking for ski areas• Dams and storage• Glaciers• How do we get people to understand?
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
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A simple surface water budget
Precipitation – Evaporation = Runoff + Storage
storage includes lots of things:
soil moisture, aquifers, reservoirs, withdrawals for irrigation, glaciers, snowpack, etc.
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IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers
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Change in annual runoff
2041-2060 compared to 1900-1970
Where do we see increases in runoff?Where do we see decreases?
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Predicted changes in groundwater recharge
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Some observed effects on water resources
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Predicted effects of climate change on water resources
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Fastest growing states
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Water resource stress without climate change
Current
2055 (IPCC A2 scenario)
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Change in water resource stress with climate change
reduced water stress in tropical regionsincreased water stress
outside the tropics
results from two different climate models
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What is drought?
• One definition:
• Elements of the definition:– deficiency of precipitation– extended period (how long is "extended"?)– water shortage for some user ("group or activity")
A deficiency of precipitation over an extended period that causes water shortage for some group or activity.
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Drought depends on the user
• Crops rely on stored soil water. Soil water can be rapidly depleted, so that monthly droughts may affect crops.
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Drought depends on the user
• Rivers and streams may dry out during seasonal droughts.
Arnie! I found your keys!
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Drought depends on the user
• Multi-year droughts may deplete ground water that supports communities.
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Drought, more precisely
• Must define the time period over which precipitation is below normal.
• Must define what is a water shortage that affects a particular activity.
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Iowa corn yields
1988 drought 1993 flood
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Remember
• Changes to water resources depend on more than just the change in rainfall.
• Whether a change is good, bad, or neutral depends on who we are and what we’re interested in.