update on covid-19 projections · 2021. 1. 12. · update on covid-19 projections science advisory...
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Update on COVID-19 Projections
Science Advisory and Modelling Consensus Tables
January 12, 2021
Key Findings
• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.
• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st 198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.
• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.
• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.
• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.
• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.
2
All Other PHUs, 32
Ottawa, 80Simcoe Muskoka, 72
Hamilton, 158
Brant, 103
Halton, 115
Lambton, 253
Peel, 232
Windsor-Essex, 323
York, 197
Toronto, 180
PROTECT (cases ≥ 10)
Haldimand-Norfolk, 106
Chatham-Kent, 126
Eastern, 142
Durham, 145
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 128
Southwestern, 145
Middlesex-London, 132
Waterloo, 145
RESTRICT (cases ≥ 25)
CONTROL (cases ≥ 40)
Niagara, 182
0
50
100
150
200
250
300
350
400
Au
g 1
Au
g 8
Au
g 1
5
Au
g 2
2
Au
g 2
9
Sep
5
Sep
12
Sep
19
Sep
26
Oct
3
Oct
10
Oct
17
Oct
24
Oct
31
No
v 7
No
v 1
4
No
v 2
1
No
v 2
8
Dec
5
Dec
12
Dec
19
Dec
26
Jan
2
Wee
kly
new
cas
es p
er 1
00
,00
0 r
esid
ents
(7-
day
avg
.)
Total new cases per 100,000 residents per week across PHUs
Data source: Case and Contact Management System, data up to January 8
Oct 9 Modified
Stage 2 begins in Toronto, Ottawa, and Peel
Sept 17In-person
classes for all major
school boards
Sept 25Restrictions on bars and restaurants
Oct 16 Modified
Stage 2 begins in
York
Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE
FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern
to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to
Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in
Modified Stage 2.
Nov 23Toronto and Peel enter 28-day lockdown
Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown
Recent data subject to
change
Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect
Sept 19Limits on social gatheringsizes
Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON
3
Middlesex-London, 6%Hamilton, 6%
Ottawa, 5%
Eastern, 7%
Peel, 13%
Durham, 8%
Windsor-Essex, 14%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 5%
All Other PHUs, 4%
York, 10%
Southwestern, 7%
PROTECT (positivity ≥ 0.5%)
Halton, 7%
RESTRICT (positivity ≥ 1.3%)
CONTROL (positivity ≥ 2.5%)Simcoe Muskoka, 3%
Lambton, 10%
Chatham-Kent, 9%
Waterloo, 7%
Haldimand-Norfolk, 5%
Toronto, 10%
Niagara, 6%Brant, 5%
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
13
14
15
16
Au
g 1
Au
g 8
Au
g 1
5
Au
g 2
2
Au
g 2
9
Sep
5
Sep
12
Sep
19
Sep
26
Oct
3
Oct
10
Oct
17
Oct
24
Oct
31
No
v 7
No
v 1
4
No
v 2
1
No
v 2
8
Dec
5
Dec
12
Dec
19
Dec
26
Jan
2
% p
osi
tivi
ty o
f d
aily
tes
tin
g ep
iso
des
(7
-day
avg
.)COVID-19 testing % positivity across PHUs
Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4
Sept 24Testing guidance update
Oct 6 Assessment Centres move to advance booking
Oct 1School & childcare screening guidance change
Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE
FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern
to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to
Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in
Modified Stage 2.
Nov 23Toronto and Peel
enter 28-day lockdown
Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown
Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect
Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON
4
Halton, 90%Hamilton, 91%
Lambton, 63%
Haldimand-Norfolk, 84%Durham, 81%
Middlesex-London, 86%
Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph, 66%
All Other PHUs, 77%
York, 75%
Toronto, 92%
Southwestern, 73%
Eastern, 85%
Peel, 86%
Waterloo, 76%
Simcoe Muskoka, 71%Windsor-Essex, 72%
Brant, 75%
Niagara, 84%
Chatham-Kent, 84%Ottawa, 84%
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80
90
100
110
Au
g 1
Au
g 8
Au
g 1
5
Au
g 2
2
Au
g 2
9
Sep
5
Sep
12
Sep
19
Sep
26
Oct
3
Oct
10
Oct
17
Oct
24
Oct
31
No
v 7
No
v 1
4
No
v 2
1
No
v 2
8
Dec
5
Dec
12
Dec
19
Dec
26
Jan
2
% o
f te
stin
g ep
iso
des
wit
h r
esu
lts
rele
ased
wit
hin
2 d
ays
of
test
(7
-day
avg
.)Percent of COVID test results returned within 2 days across PHUs
Data source: Ontario Laboratories Information System (OLIS), data up to January 4
Sept 24Testing guidance update
Oct 6 Assessment Centres move to advance booking
Oct 1School & childcare screening guidance change
Nov 7COVID-19 RESPONSE
FRAMEWORKDurham, Halton, Eastern
to Protect. Ottawa and York to Restrict. Peel to
Control + local restrictions. Toronto remains in
Modified Stage 2.
Nov 23Toronto and Peel
enter 28-day lockdown
Dec 14York and Windsor-Essex enter lockdown
Dec 4Middlesex-London + T-Bay to Restrict. Haliburton to Protect
Dec 26Province-wide lockdown14 days N. ON28 days S. ON
5
Weekly % positivity by age group
Legend:
Data Source: Ontario Laboratory Information System (OLIS), MOH – extracted from SAS VA Jan 10Note: Includes all data submitted to OLIS up to January 7th 2021. The last six days are considered interim data (week 52) and subject to change
Weekly % positivity = total number of positive tests within the week (based on reported date)/COVID tests within the week
Weekly % positivity by age group
6
Data Source: Ministry of Long-Term Care Tracker, Dec 19th extraction based on data reported up to 3:30 pm Jan 9th, 2021. Data are self-reported by the long-term care homes to the Ministry of Long-Term Care. Daily case and death figures may not immediately match the numbers posted by the local public health units (i.e. iPHIS database) due to lags in reporting time.
7
Cases and cumulative mortality LTC increasing (198 resident and 2 staff deaths since January 1st)
0
250
500
750
1000
1250
1500
Sep 1 Sep15
Oct 1 Oct15
Nov1
Nov15
Dec 1 Dec15
Jan 1
COVID-19 cases and deaths for LTC residents and staff
Daily Active Cases Residents
Daily Active Cases Staff
Cumulative deaths since Sept 1
Current status
252 LTC homes have COVID-19 outbreaks (40% of all homes) with 105 outbreaks involving resident cases
Outbreaks are occurring across almost all public health units, with 91 outbreaks (37%) occurring in priority vaccination areas of Toronto, Peel, York and Windsor-Essex
Since January 1st, 198 LTC residents have died of COVID-19 and 2 staff deaths have been reported
Forecasts suggest there will be more LTC residents deaths in wave 2 than in wave 1 (1,815 total deaths)
1,119 actual deaths as of Jan 9, 2021
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
Cu
mu
lati
ve L
TC r
esid
ent
CO
VID
-19
dea
ths
Date
Projected and actual cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths (Sep 1, 2020-Feb 14, 2021)
Projected deaths
Actual cumulative deaths (MLTC tracker)
Last
day
of
fore
cast
:Feb
14
, 20
21
2,639 projected deaths as of Feb 14, 2021 (worst case)
Projections: second wave cumulative LTC resident COVID-19 deaths >2,600 by Feb 14 in worst case scenario
8Predictions: MOH Capacity Planning and Analytics Division Data: (Cumulative Deaths): MLTC Tracker Tool
Public Health Unit
2226 Algoma Public Health Unit
2227 Brant County Health Unit
2230 Durham Region Health Department
2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit
2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit
2236 Halton Region Health Department
2237 Hamilton Public Health Services
2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit
2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit
2242 Lambton Health Unit
2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit
2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit
2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department
2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
2249 Northwestern Health Unit
2251 Ottawa Public Health
2253 Peel Public Health
2255 Peterborough Public Health
2256 Porcupine Health Unit
2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit
2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit
2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit
2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit
2263 Timiskaming Health Unit
2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health
2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
2270 York Region Public Health
3895 Toronto Public Health
4913 Southwestern Public Health
5183 Huron Perth Health Unit
Long-term Care Outbreaks
July 1, 2020
Size of outbreak (staff and residents)
9
Public Health Unit
2226 Algoma Public Health Unit
2227 Brant County Health Unit
2230 Durham Region Health Department
2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit
2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit
2236 Halton Region Health Department
2237 Hamilton Public Health Services
2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit
2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit
2242 Lambton Health Unit
2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit
2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit
2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department
2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
2249 Northwestern Health Unit
2251 Ottawa Public Health
2253 Peel Public Health
2255 Peterborough Public Health
2256 Porcupine Health Unit
2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit
2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit
2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit
2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit
2263 Timiskaming Health Unit
2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health
2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
2270 York Region Public Health
3895 Toronto Public Health
4913 Southwestern Public Health
5183 Huron Perth Health Unit
Long-term Care Outbreaks
October 1, 2020
Size of outbreak (staff and residents)
10
Public Health Unit
2226 Algoma Public Health Unit
2227 Brant County Health Unit
2230 Durham Region Health Department
2233 Grey Bruce Health Unit
2234 Haldimand-Norfolk Health Unit
2235 Haliburton, Kawartha, Pine Ridge District Health Unit
2236 Halton Region Health Department
2237 Hamilton Public Health Services
2238 Hastings & Prince Edward Counties Health Unit
2240 Chatham-Kent Health Unit
2241 Kingston, Frontenac and Lennox & Addington Health Unit
2242 Lambton Health Unit
2243 Leeds, Grenville & Lanark District Health Unit
2244 Middlesex-London Health Unit
2246 Niagara Region Public Health Department
2247 North Bay Parry Sound District Health Unit
2249 Northwestern Health Unit
2251 Ottawa Public Health
2253 Peel Public Health
2255 Peterborough Public Health
2256 Porcupine Health Unit
2257 Renfrew County & District Health Unit
2258 Eastern Ontario Health Unit
2260 Simcoe Muskoka District Health Unit
2261 Sudbury and District Health Unit
2262 Thunder Bay District Health Unit
2263 Timiskaming Health Unit
2265 Region of Waterloo, Public Health
2266 Wellington-Dufferin-Guelph Health Unit
2268 Windsor-Essex County Health Unit
2270 York Region Public Health
3895 Toronto Public Health
4913 Southwestern Public Health
5183 Huron Perth Health Unit
Long-term Care Outbreaks
January 7, 2021
Size of outbreak (staff and residents)
11
Despite some reduced mobility from “Grey Zone” restrictions, there was a pre-holiday spike
12Analysis: UofT, St. Michael’s Hospital, ICES
Data: Google% change relative to January 2020
“Grey Zone” restrictions did not affect the proportion of people working from home; holiday decreases are not likely to persist
13Analysis: UofT, St. Michael’s Hospital, ICES
Data: Google% change relative to January 2020
• Are people in your neighbourhood physically distancing?
• In the last 4 weeks, how many people outside your household visited your house (meal, celebration, stay over)?
• And if so, did you observe restrictions?
With current restrictions, almost 2/3 of the population are acting in a way that will decrease COVID-19 spread
14Didn’t observe restrictions Observed restrictions
Survey: Fields Institute
Occasionally or never Most of the time/sometimes All the time
3 or more 1-2 None
-
5,000
10,000
15,000
20,000
25,000
30,000
35,000
40,000
45,000
12/21 12/28 01/04 01/11 01/18 01/25 02/01 02/08
Daily New Cases (Other Countries Aligned at 230/1M Population/Day)
ON - Daily ON - 7-Day Mean ON 0%↑ (Constant) ON 1%↑ ON 3%↑ ON 5%↑
ON 7%↑ FRA GER NLD UK
As happened in other jurisdictions, case growth continues under current levels of restrictions
15
ON 3%↑
ON 1%↑
ON 0%↑
ON 7%↑
Predictions informed by modeling from McMasterU, Fields Institute, COVID-19 ModCollab, PHO; recent growth in new daily cases; reported cases in peer jurisdictions
Data (Observed Cases): covid-19.ontario.ca; https://ourworldindata.org
Note: Ontario reached 23/100,000 cases between 1.5 and 3 months after these countries
ON 5%↑
0
500
1,000
1,500
2,000
2,500
3,000
3,500
ICU
Bed
s O
ccu
pie
d w
ith
CO
VID
-19
Pat
ien
ts (
per
Day
)
ON Observed ON Predicted ON 0%↑ (Constant) ON 1%↑ ON 3%↑ ON 5%↑ ON 7%↑
Projections: COVID-19 ICU occupancy around 500 beds in mid-January, potentially over 1,000 beds in February in more severe, but realistic scenarios
16
ON 0%↑
ON 1%↑
ON 3%↑
ON 5%↑
ON 7%↑
Predictions: COVID-19 ModCollab. Data (Observed ICU Occupancy): CCSO
150 beds
At 9% growth rate (not shown): >2,000 occupancy Feb 5
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
1100
1200
1300
1400
1500
1-Aug 8-Aug 15-Aug 22-Aug 29-Aug 5-Sep 12-Sep 19-Sep 26-Sep 3-Oct 10-Oct 17-Oct 24-Oct 31-Oct 7-Nov 14-Nov 21-Nov 28-Nov 5-Dec 12-Dec 19-Dec 26-Dec 2-Jan
Confirmed COVID19 Acute Inpatients (excluding ICU)
Confirmed COVID19 ICU Patients
17Data Sources: Daily Bed Census Summary COVID-19 Report + Critical Care Information System, extracted January 9
Over the past 4 weeks:72.2% increase in hospitalizations
61.2% increase in ICU patients
COVID-19 hospitalizations and ICU admissions continue to climb
One quarter of hospitals have no ICU beds free, another quarter have only 1 or 2 beds free
18
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
120%
140%
160%C
orn
wal
l Co
mm
un
ity
Ho
spit
al n
= 1
1
Ham
ilto
n H
eal
th S
cie
nce
s G
ene
ral
n =
31
Hu
mb
er R
iver
Wils
on
n =
46
Mar
kham
Sto
uff
ville
n =
15
Mic
hae
l Gar
ron
Ho
spit
al n
= 1
7
Nia
gara
He
alth
Sys
tem
St.
Cat
har
ines
n =
14
Oak
ville
Tra
falg
ar M
em
ori
al H
osp
ital
n =
21
Qu
inte
He
alth
care
Bel
levi
lle n
= 1
8
Scar
bo
rou
gh C
ente
nar
y n
= 2
0
St. T
ho
mas
-Elg
in G
ener
al H
osp
ital
n =
8
Stra
tfo
rd G
en
eral
Ho
spit
al n
= 6
Sun
nyb
roo
k H
eal
th S
cie
nce
s C
entr
e n
= 5
2
Trill
ium
Cre
dit
Val
ley
Ho
spit
al n
= 2
4
Will
iam
Osl
er E
tob
ico
ke C
amp
us
n =
14
Win
dso
r R
egi
on
al M
etro
po
litan
Cam
pu
s n
= 1
9
Ch
ath
am-K
ent
n =
10
Geo
rgia
n B
ay G
ener
al H
osp
ital
n =
6
Mac
ken
zie
Hea
lth
n =
30
Ori
llia
Sold
iers
Mem
ori
al H
osp
ital
n =
8
Sou
thla
ke R
egio
nal
Hea
lth
Ce
ntr
e n
= 1
8
Un
ity
Hea
lth
St.
Mic
hae
l's n
= 2
9
Blu
ewat
er H
ealt
h S
arn
ia G
ener
al H
osp
ital
n =
14
Cam
bri
dge
Mem
ori
al H
osp
ital
n =
12
Gre
y B
ruce
Hea
lth
Ser
vice
s O
wen
So
un
d n
= 6
Gu
elp
h G
ener
al H
osp
ital
n =
10
Ham
ilto
n H
eal
th S
cie
nce
s Ju
ravi
nsk
i Ho
spit
al n
= 2
3
Kin
gsto
n H
ealt
h S
cien
ces
Cen
tre
n =
33
Qu
een
sway
- C
arle
ton
Ho
spit
al n
= 1
2
Ro
yal V
icto
ria
Re
gio
nal
Hea
lth
Cen
tre
n =
15
Scar
bo
rou
gh B
irch
mo
un
t n
= 1
5
St. M
ary'
s G
ene
ral H
osp
ital
n =
13
The
Ott
awa
Ho
spit
al C
ivic
Cam
pu
s n
= 2
9
UH
N T
oro
nto
We
ster
n H
osp
ital
n =
33
Un
ity
Hea
lth
St.
Jo
sep
h's
n =
18
Bra
ntf
ord
Gen
eral
Ho
spit
al n
= 1
5
Bro
ckvi
lle G
en
earl
Ch
arle
s St
n =
10
Gra
nd
Riv
er K
itch
ener
Wat
erlo
o n
= 2
0
Hal
ton
Hea
lth
care
Milt
on
Dis
tric
t H
osp
ital
n =
8
Hea
lth
Sci
ence
s N
ort
h n
= 1
4
Ho
pit
al M
on
tfo
rt n
= 1
2
Jose
ph
Bra
nt
Ho
spit
al n
= 2
4
Lake
rid
ge H
ealt
h A
jax
n =
13
Lake
rid
ge H
ealt
h O
shaw
a n
= 3
2
LHSC
Un
iver
sity
Cam
pu
s n
= 2
5
LHSC
Vic
tori
a C
amp
us
n =
31
Mo
un
t Si
nai
Ho
spit
al n
= 2
1
Nia
gara
He
alth
Sys
tem
Gre
ater
Nia
gara
n =
15
No
rth
Bay
Reg
ion
al H
eal
th C
entr
e n
= 1
6
No
rth
Yo
rk G
ene
ral H
osp
ital
n =
23
Pe
mb
roke
Reg
ion
al H
osp
ital
Inc.
n =
9
Pe
terb
oro
ugh
Reg
ion
al H
osp
ital
Dri
ve n
= 2
8
Ro
ss M
emo
rial
Ho
spit
al n
- 9
Sau
lt A
rea
Ho
spit
al n
= 1
3
Scar
bo
rou
gh G
ene
ral n
= 2
9
St J
ose
ph
's H
ealt
hca
re S
yste
m C
har
lto
n n
= 2
7
The
Ott
awa
Ho
spit
al G
ener
al C
amp
us
n =
29
Thu
nd
er B
ay R
egio
nal
Hea
lth
Sci
ence
s C
entr
e n
= 2
2
Trill
ium
Mis
siss
auga
Ho
spit
al n
= 3
7
UH
N T
oro
nto
Gen
era
l Ho
spit
al n
= 3
8
Will
iam
Osl
er B
ram
pto
n C
amp
us
n =
24
Win
dso
r R
egi
on
al O
uel
lett
e C
amp
us
n =
20
Wo
od
sto
ck G
ener
al H
osp
ital
n =
12
0 Free Beds 1 Free Bed 2 Free Beds 3+ Free Beds
Per
cen
tage
of
L3 M
SIC
U B
eds
Occ
up
ied
Percentage of Ontario L3 Medical Surgical ICU Beds Occupied on January 8, 2021, by Number of Available Beds
Other ICU Patients Patients with COVID-19
=
100% Occupancy85% Occupancy
Access to care continues to decline below 2019 levels
Dec. 21 to 27 holiday fluctuation in surgical volumes
19
Daily mortality is increasing under current restrictions, doubling from 50 to 100 deaths per day between now and end of February
20Forecasting: McMasterU. Data (Observed Deaths): CCM+
Assumption: continue current restrictions.
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
800
900
1000
2/1/20 3/1/20 4/1/20 5/1/20 6/1/20 7/1/20 8/1/20 9/1/20 10/1/20 11/1/20 12/1/20 1/1/21
Daily New Cases per 1 Million People (7-Day Average)
France Germany Netherlands United Kingdom Ontario
The Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant: B.1.1.7 appears to be much more easily transmitted
• Novel SARS-CoV-2 variant, B.1.1.7, emerged in southeast England in November
• Transmissibility: 56% ↑ (95% credible interval 50-74%)
• No increase in disease severity, vaccines likely still effective
21
800 Cases/1M Pop ~ 12,000 cases/Day for ON Population
Sources: https://ourworldindata.org; CCM+Sources: Public Health England Technical Reports; Davies NG et al (LSHTM)
UK
NLD
GER
FRA
ON
If the SARS-CoV-2 variant B.1.1.7 spreads in the community, doubling time for cases could drop to 10 days in March
Predictions: QueensU
Assumptions: 1 case infected with B.1.1.7. from the UK entering Ontario mid-Oct, transmissibility of variant 56% ↑ than other circulating variants (based on UK data), continue current restrictions.
22
Key components of hard lockdowns in peer jurisdictions
Victoria, Australia
France (Fall) UK* Germany* Netherlands*
Strict stay-at-home order / movement restrictions
✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Non-essential retail closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Bars, restaurants , gyms etc. closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Most workplaces closed ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
Schools closed ✓ ✕ ✓ ✓ ✓
Mandatory masking outdoors ✓ ✓ ✕ ✕ ✕
Testing blitz in high risk areas ✓ ✕ ✕ ✕ ✕
Curfew ✓ ✓ ✕ ✓ ✕
Enforcement ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓ ✓
23
✓ = fully imposed, ✓ = partially imposed, ✕ = not imposed, *Currently in lockdown
Key Findings
• Growth in cases has accelerated and is over 7% on the worst days.
• Almost 40% of long-term care homes have active COVID-19 outbreaks. Since January 1st
198 LTC residents and 2 LTC staff have died of COVID-19. Forecasts suggest more deaths in wave 2 in long-term care than in wave 1.
• COVID-19 ICU occupancy is now over 400 beds. Surgeries are being cancelled and the access to care deficit will continue to increase with real consequences for health.
• Mobility, and contacts between people have not decreased with the current restrictions. Survey data show that the majority of Ontarians are helping limit spread by following them. However, case numbers will not decline until more of the population follows their example.
• A new variant of concern of SARS-CoV-2 (B117) could drive much higher case counts, ICU occupancy and mortality if community transmission occurs. The doubling time for cases could drop by more than 2/3. This new variant is now in Ontario.
• Without significant reductions in contacts, the health system will be overwhelmed and mortality will exceed the first wave totals before a vaccine has time to take effect.
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Content provided by Modelling Consensus and Scientific Advisory Table members and secretariatBeate Sander,* Peter Juni, Brian Schwartz,* Kumar Murty,* Upton Allen, Vanessa Allen, Nicholas Bodmer, Isaac Bogoch, Kevin Brown, Sarah Buchan, Yoojin Choi, Troy Day, David Earn, Gerald Evans, David Fisman, Jennifer Gibson, Anna Greenberg, Anne Hayes, Michael Hillmer, Jessica Hopkins, Jeff Kwong, Audrey Laporte, John Lavis, Gerald Lebovic, Brian Lewis, Linda Mah, Kamil Malikov, Antonina Maltsev, Doug Manuel, Allison McGeer, David McKeown, John McLaughlin, Sharmistha Mishra, Justin Morgenstern, Samira Mubareka, Laveena Munshi, Christopher Mushquash, Ayodele Odutayo, Shahla Oskooei, Samir Patel, Bill Praamsma, Justin Presseau, Fahad Razak, Paula Rochon, Laura Rosella, Arjumand Siddiqi, Chris Simpson, Arthur Slutsky, Janet Smylie, Nathan Stall, Ashleigh Tuite, Jennifer Walker, Tania Watts, Ashini Weerasinghe, Scott Weese, Xiaolin Wei, Jianhong Wu, Diana Yan, Emre Yurga
* Chairs of Scientific Advisory or Modelling Consensus Tables
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