university of texas at austin department of statistics and data sciences statistics in action series...
Post on 13-Jan-2016
219 Views
Preview:
TRANSCRIPT
University of Texas at AustinDepartment of Statistics
and Data SciencesStatistics in Action Series
September 16, 2015Austin, TX
2
Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.
~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991
3
The Population Research Institute,
2.1 Kids: Stable Population
http://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY
The Office of the State Demographer disseminates demographic and related socioeconomic data to the State of Texas and the general public. The State Demographer’s Office monitors demographic and socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas government. Special emphasis is placed on data that may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues regarding the demand for state services.
Mission
• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports http://osd.texas.gov/
• Population Estimates and Projections Program http://osd.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/
• Public Presentations http://osd.texas.gov/Presentations
• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings• Data Requests• Custom Research Projects• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography
Conference
Meeting the Mission
Demographic Overview
• Texas is experiencing significant growth.• Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth
is not geographically evenly distributed.• Growth is not racially/ethnically evenly distributed.
Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic population.
• The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging.• The components of population change have varying
implications for infrastructure in Texas. • Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious
implications for the future Texas economy.
6
1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s
89.5% 86.7%
41.5%
65.9%
49.7% 53.7%
10.5% 13.3%
58.5%
34.1%
50.3% 46.3%
MigrationNatural Increase
Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates
8
Population Projections, Texas, 2010 - 2050
Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2014 Projections
20000000
25000000
30000000
35000000
40000000
45000000
50000000
55000000Projected Population in Texas,
2010 to 2050Zero Migra-tion0.5 Migration1.0 Migration
0
4,000,000
8,000,000
12,000,000
16,000,000
20,000,000
24,000,000NH WhiteNH BlackHispanicNH Other
Projected Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050
0.5 Migration Scenario
9
A Profile of International Migrants in Texas
10
11
• Immigrants have been an important source of population growth in the U.S.
• Migration can alter a population’s age structure. Young adults ages 20-34 years most likely to move in a given year.
• Migration can also alter a population’s race/ethnic distribution.• Historically, Texas immigrants have been more homogeneous
compared to other states.• More recently, Texas has increasingly been a destination for
immigrants of more diverse backgrounds. • These trends, if they persist, would yield a more diverse
population in Texas.
12
Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the U.S., 1820-2012
13
Percent of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 10 Immigrant States, 2007-2011
California
Texas
New York
Florida
Illinois
New Jersey
Massachusetts
Washington
Arizona
Virginia
30.2%
56.1%
30.9%
60.7%
24.6%
36.0%
23.3%
17.4%
44.6%
13.9%
53.6%
28.3%
41.3%
16.0%
50.9%
46.4%
49.3%
56.1%
30.0%
17.3%
10.0%
7.6%
17.6%
12.0%
15.8%
10.3%
17.1%
12.2%
8.2%
43.7%
6.2%
8.0%
10.2%
11.3%
8.7%
7.4%
10.3%
14.3%
17.1%
25.1%
Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other
Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013
15
Projecting the educational attainment of the Texas labor force
16
Employment Status of the Labor Force by Educational Attainment, Texas
Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201188%
90%
92%
94%
96%
98%
100%
Year
Perc
ent e
mpl
oyed
Bachelor's Degree and Above
Some College/ Asso-ciate Degree
High School or Equivalent
Less than High School
17
18
Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011
Level of Educational Attainment
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older
State Ranking
High school diploma or equivalency or greater
81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA and
MS)Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.
19
Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009
19%
6%
71%
3%
67%
8%
15%
9%
Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.Less Than High School
College and Greater
20
Enrollment in Texas Public Schools by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-02 to 2011-12
2001-02
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2005-06
2006-07
2007-08
2008-09
2009-10
2010-11
2011-12
0.0
500,000.0
1,000,000.0
1,500,000.0
2,000,000.0
2,500,000.0
3,000,000.0
African American American Indian Asian HispanicPacific Islander White Multiracial
Enro
llmen
t in
Mill
ions
Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2011-12.
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201177.0%
77.5%
78.0%
78.5%
79.0%
79.5%
80.0%
80.5%
81.0%
81.5%
78.6%
79.1%
79.6%79.9%
80.7%81.1%
Percent of persons aged 25 years and older with a high school degree or higher, Texas, 2006-2011
Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –
High School Graduates and Above
2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201150%
55%
60%
65%
70%
75%
80%
85%
90%
95%
100%
WhiteBlackHispanicOther
Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,
Texas
23
Less
than High Sc
hool
High School o
r Equiva
lent
Some Colle
ge / Asso
ciate D
egree
Bachelor's
Degre
e
Graduate or P
rofessi
onal Degre
e0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%
18.1%
24.0%
29.9%
18.7%
9.3%
2011 ACS
2030 Constant 2011 %
Educational Attainment
Perc
ent o
f the
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
These should be going DOWN These should be going UP
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario (http://osd.state.tx.us/Publications/2014-04-08_EducationAttainment.pdf)
Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended
Rates, Texas
24
Less
than High Sc
hool
High School o
r Equiva
lent
Some Colle
ge / Asso
ciate D
egree
Bachelor's
Degre
e
Graduate or P
rofessi
onal Degre
e0.0%
5.0%
10.0%
15.0%
20.0%
25.0%
30.0%
35.0%
40.0%
15.0%
23.8%
31.3%
20.1%
9.8%11.4%
20.4%
34.3%
22.1%
11.8%
2011 ACS
2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)
Educational Attainment
Perc
ent o
f the
Civ
ilian
Lab
or F
orce
These should be going DOWN These should be going UP
Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario (http://osd.state.tx.us/Publications/2014-04-08_EducationAttainment.pdf)
25
Demographics & Destiny
26
Contact
Office: (512) 936-3542Email: Lila.Valencia@osd.state.tx.us Internet: www.osd.texas.gov Twitter: @TexasDemography
Lila Valencia, Ph.D.
27
http://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo
Hans Rosling’s The Joy of Stats BBC Four
top related