University of Texas at AustinDepartment of Statistics

and Data SciencesStatistics in Action Series

September 16, 2015Austin, TX

2

Demography – the study of the size, distribution, and composition of populations; the processes determining these – namely, fertility, mortality, and migration; and the determinants and consequences of all of the above.

~ Bogue, 1968; Murdock & Ellis, 1991

3

The Population Research Institute,

2.1 Kids: Stable Population

http://youtu.be/zBS6f-JVvTY

The Office of the State Demographer disseminates demographic and related socioeconomic data to the State of Texas and the general public. The State Demographer’s Office monitors demographic and socioeconomic changes in the State in order to better inform the executive and legislative branches of Texas government. Special emphasis is placed on data that may be useful to policy makers in dealing with issues regarding the demand for state services.

Mission

• Data Portal, Publications, and Reports http://osd.texas.gov/

• Population Estimates and Projections Program http://osd.texas.gov/Data/TPEPP/

• Public Presentations http://osd.texas.gov/Presentations

• Resource Witness at Legislative Hearings• Data Requests• Custom Research Projects• Annual Conference for Data Users and Applied Demography

Conference

Meeting the Mission

Demographic Overview

• Texas is experiencing significant growth.• Population continues to grow at a steady pace though growth

is not geographically evenly distributed.• Growth is not racially/ethnically evenly distributed.

Population growth is being driven largely by the Hispanic population.

• The population of Texas, while relatively young, is also aging.• The components of population change have varying

implications for infrastructure in Texas. • Demographic and infrastructure challenges may have serious

implications for the future Texas economy.

6

1950s 1960s 1970s 1980s 1990s 2000s

89.5% 86.7%

41.5%

65.9%

49.7% 53.7%

10.5% 13.3%

58.5%

34.1%

50.3% 46.3%

MigrationNatural Increase

Components of Population Change by Percent in Texas, 1950-2010

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, Population Estimates

8

Population Projections, Texas, 2010 - 2050

Source: Texas State Data Center Population Estimates and Projections Program, 2014 Projections

20000000

25000000

30000000

35000000

40000000

45000000

50000000

55000000Projected Population in Texas,

2010 to 2050Zero Migra-tion0.5 Migration1.0 Migration

0

4,000,000

8,000,000

12,000,000

16,000,000

20,000,000

24,000,000NH WhiteNH BlackHispanicNH Other

Projected Texas Population by Race/Ethnicity, 2010 to 2050

0.5 Migration Scenario

9

A Profile of International Migrants in Texas

10

11

• Immigrants have been an important source of population growth in the U.S.

• Migration can alter a population’s age structure. Young adults ages 20-34 years most likely to move in a given year.

• Migration can also alter a population’s race/ethnic distribution.• Historically, Texas immigrants have been more homogeneous

compared to other states.• More recently, Texas has increasingly been a destination for

immigrants of more diverse backgrounds. • These trends, if they persist, would yield a more diverse

population in Texas.

12

Number of Annual Immigrants Admitted to the U.S., 1820-2012

13

Percent of Non-Citizen Immigrants by World Area of Birth in the Top 10 Immigrant States, 2007-2011

California

Texas

New York

Florida

Illinois

New Jersey

Massachusetts

Washington

Arizona

Virginia

30.2%

56.1%

30.9%

60.7%

24.6%

36.0%

23.3%

17.4%

44.6%

13.9%

53.6%

28.3%

41.3%

16.0%

50.9%

46.4%

49.3%

56.1%

30.0%

17.3%

10.0%

7.6%

17.6%

12.0%

15.8%

10.3%

17.1%

12.2%

8.2%

43.7%

6.2%

8.0%

10.2%

11.3%

8.7%

7.4%

10.3%

14.3%

17.1%

25.1%

Latin America Asia Europe Africa and Other

Annual Shares of Recent Non-Citizen Immigrants to Texas by World Area of Birth, 2005-2013

15

Projecting the educational attainment of the Texas labor force

16

Employment Status of the Labor Force by Educational Attainment, Texas

Source: U.S. Census Bureau. 2001 to 2011 American Community Survey 1-Year PUMS data

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201188%

90%

92%

94%

96%

98%

100%

Year

Perc

ent e

mpl

oyed

Bachelor's Degree and Above

Some College/ Asso-ciate Degree

High School or Equivalent

Less than High School

17

18

Educational Attainment in Texas, 2011

Level of Educational Attainment

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older

State Ranking

High school diploma or equivalency or greater

81.1% 48/49/50 (tied with CA and

MS)Bachelors or greater 26.4% 29

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, One-year Sample, 2011.

19

Race/Ethnic Composition by Education Level in the Labor Force (aged 25 years and more), Texas, 2009

19%

6%

71%

3%

67%

8%

15%

9%

Source: Derived from 2009 American Community Survey 1-Year Estimates by the Office of the State Demographer.Less Than High School

College and Greater

20

Enrollment in Texas Public Schools by Race/Ethnicity, 2001-02 to 2011-12

2001-02

2002-03

2003-04

2004-05

2005-06

2006-07

2007-08

2008-09

2009-10

2010-11

2011-12

0.0

500,000.0

1,000,000.0

1,500,000.0

2,000,000.0

2,500,000.0

3,000,000.0

African American American Indian Asian HispanicPacific Islander White Multiracial

Enro

llmen

t in

Mill

ions

Source: Texas Education Agency, Enrollment in Texas Public Schools 2011-12.

2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201177.0%

77.5%

78.0%

78.5%

79.0%

79.5%

80.0%

80.5%

81.0%

81.5%

78.6%

79.1%

79.6%79.9%

80.7%81.1%

Percent of persons aged 25 years and older with a high school degree or higher, Texas, 2006-2011

Trends in Educational Attainment of Persons in the Labor Force (25-64 Years of Age) in Texas by Race/Ethnicity –

High School Graduates and Above

2001 2002 2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 201150%

55%

60%

65%

70%

75%

80%

85%

90%

95%

100%

WhiteBlackHispanicOther

Source: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, Public Use Micro Sample, 2001-2011

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, 2030 Using Constant Rates,

Texas

23

Less

than High Sc

hool

High School o

r Equiva

lent

Some Colle

ge / Asso

ciate D

egree

Bachelor's

Degre

e

Graduate or P

rofessi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%

18.1%

24.0%

29.9%

18.7%

9.3%

2011 ACS

2030 Constant 2011 %

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario (http://osd.state.tx.us/Publications/2014-04-08_EducationAttainment.pdf)

Percent of the Civilian Labor Force (ages 25-64) by Educational Attainment for 2011, and 2030 Using Trended

Rates, Texas

24

Less

than High Sc

hool

High School o

r Equiva

lent

Some Colle

ge / Asso

ciate D

egree

Bachelor's

Degre

e

Graduate or P

rofessi

onal Degre

e0.0%

5.0%

10.0%

15.0%

20.0%

25.0%

30.0%

35.0%

40.0%

15.0%

23.8%

31.3%

20.1%

9.8%11.4%

20.4%

34.3%

22.1%

11.8%

2011 ACS

2030 Trended (2001-2011 Trend)

Educational Attainment

Perc

ent o

f the

Civ

ilian

Lab

or F

orce

These should be going DOWN These should be going UP

Sources: U.S. Census Bureau, American Community Survey, 1-Year PUMS. Texas State Data Center, 2012 Vintage Population Projections, 0.5 Migration Scenario (http://osd.state.tx.us/Publications/2014-04-08_EducationAttainment.pdf)

25

Demographics & Destiny

26

Contact

Office: (512) 936-3542Email: Lila.Valencia@osd.state.tx.us Internet: www.osd.texas.gov Twitter: @TexasDemography

Lila Valencia, Ph.D.

27

http://youtu.be/jbkSRLYSojo

Hans Rosling’s The Joy of Stats BBC Four