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The impact of the Infection: Country Indicators
Yves Van der Stede
Unit CVD-ERACODA-CERVA
DG Sanco, 2 April 2012
Outline
� Which might be “impact indicators” for SBV
� What do we know !?
� Timeline of SBV impact
� What do we not know?
� Further research
� Conclusion(s)
16/04/2012 2
Impact indicators for SBV
o Cases/Distribution: calfs, lambs, ...
• Confirmed cases in different SBV affected countries
o Symptoms
o Incidence at herd level
o Mortality data
o Birth data
o Milk production data
o Vector data
16/04/2012 3
Number of confirmed Cases (herds)
16/04/2012 4
The Netherlands (29/03)
Cattle Sheep Goat Total
124 105 5 244
Belgium (28/03)
138 162 2 302
Germany (26/03)
201 + 1 (Bison) 825 44 1070
UK (28/03)
20 203 0 223
FR (28/03)
59 854 11 924
Luxembourg, Italy , Spain (28/03)
± 9 in total
SBV infection and animal density in Belgium Sheep
16/04/2012 5
SBV infection and animal density in Germany
16/04/2012 6
sheep
cattle
goats
SBV infection in France
16/04/2012 7
Distribution of confirmed SBV cases[source AHVLA]
16/04/2012 8
Symptoms: Adults
o Probably often unapparent, but some acute disease during the vector-active season
• Fever
• Impaired general condition
• Anorexia
• Reduced milk yield (by up to 50%)
• Diarrhoea
o Vets were reporting this in NL and BE (pers. comm) during late summer in 2011 !
• Did we pick up that signal seriously ? What in 2012? • Recovery
• within a few days for the individuals
• 2-3 weeks at the herd scale 16/04/2012 9
Scanning surveillance submissions from cattle in five south-east England counties with “Milk drop”, “Malaise”
or “Diarrhoea” in 2010 and 2011 [source: AHVLA]
16/04/2012 10
No
obvious
increase
Symptoms: Offspring
• Malformed animals and stillbirths (calves, lambs)• Arthrogryposis (abnormal joints)
• Hydrocephaly (build up of fluid in skull)
• Brachygnathia inferior (overshot jaw)
• Ankylosis (stiff joints)
• Torticollis (twisted neck)
• Scoliosis (deformed spine)
o Vets and farmers haven’t seen this during main lambing (calving) period before summer 2011 !
o Vets and farmers could not link these symptoms to other known pathogens !
16/04/2012 11
Impact Cases: Timeline
o Expected period for detection of further cases based on infection time and gestation duration
[Source EFSA REPORT 2012:EN-241 ]
o As we speak …. ����
16/04/2012 12
Suspicious case reports in BE: sheep[source CODA-CERVA NRL]
16/04/2012 13
Suspicious case reports in BE: cattle[source CODA-CERVA NRL]
16/04/2012 14
Suspicion versus Abortus !?Subregions BELGIUM
16/04/2012 15
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
twijfelachtig
positief
negatief
Region of Flanders
Region of Wallonia
0
2
4
6
8
10
12
14
16
27
/11
/20
11
09
/12
/20
11
11
/12
/20
11
13
/12
/20
11
15
/12
/20
11
16
/12
/20
11
18
/12
/20
11
19
/12
/20
11
21
/12
/20
11
23
/12
/20
11
25
/12
/20
11
26
/12
/20
11
28
/12
/20
11
30
/12
/20
11
01
/01
/20
12
03
/01
/20
12
05
/01
/20
12
07
/01
/20
12
09
/01
/20
12
11
/01
/20
12
13
/01
/20
12
18
/01
/20
12
27
/01
/20
12
04
/02
/20
12
14
/02
/20
12
17
/02
/20
12
19
/02
/20
12
21
/02
/20
12
01
/03
/20
12
04
/03
/20
12
06
/03
/20
12
08
/03
/20
12
twijfelachtig
positief
negatief
Impact on Sheep morbidity rate[source DGZ-Vlaanderen; Guido Bertels]
16/04/2012 16
MunicipalityNumber of ewes
which lambed
Number of SBV
aborted foeti% SBV
Number of dead
or euthaniazed
lambs
A 13 3 23
B 8 1 13
C 4 3 75 4 or 5
D 10 4 40
E 10 2 20
F 40 3 7
G 30 5 16 1 normal lamb
H 108 31 29
I 75 25 33
J 13 5 38
K 7 4 57
L 30 16 53 17
M 29 13 50 19
TOTAAL 373 114 30,5
First results of French questionnaire in Sheep SBV confirmed flocks (average proportions)
[source ANSES, P. Hendrickx; FESASS]
16/04/2012 17
Ewes which
have lambed
in SBV
confirmed
flock
6% aborted 94% at term
66% normal
aborted foeti
34% abnormal
aborted foeti
17% at least
1 lamb with
malformation
s/symptoms
83% all lambs
normal
First results of French questionnaire in Sheep SBV confirmed flocks (average proportions)
[source ANSES, P. Hendrickx; FESASS]
16/04/2012 18
Lamb in SBV
confirmed flock
17%
abortion/stillborn
/died in first 12h
2% born alive with
malformations/sympt
oms but still alive
after 12h
29% normal
aspect
71% abnormal
aspect
81% normal
Impact on Cattle morbidity rate at herd level
o Much lower than in sheep
• Additional 3% more abortions/abnormal foeti due to SBV
• To be confirmed !
• As we speak ... �
16/04/2012 19
Abortion data BE 2010-2011[source DGZ-Vlaanderen – Hans Van Loo]
16/04/2012 20
0
100
200
300
400
500
600
700
nb of foeti cattle
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
nb of small ruminants
Sheep fetal/neonatal carcase submissions 2011-12 (England and Wales): increase in submissions in
England in 2012 [source AHVLA]
16/04/2012 21
Cattle rendering plant data 2010-2011:mortality temporal clusters
16/04/2012 22
Cattle birth records data 2008-2012 (until feb 2012):
16/04/2012 23
0
20000
40000
60000
80000
100000
120000
140000
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12
2005
2006
2007
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012
Milk production data 2007-2012 (BE): no apparent decrease
16/04/2012 24
Vector Data
o Vector Monitoring is necessary !
• Overwintering in vectors?
• Positive pools of vectors/cullicoides found in Belgium and Denmark
16/04/2012 25
Fertility data-AI
o No reasons to believe until now that SBV has an impact on
• The number of Ais per cow
• Number of return to services
• Number of dystocia
(pers. Comm of CRV the Netherlands)
o No further information is available !
o To be confirmed
16/04/2012 26
Impact on Commodity/Consumer
o Unlikely that SBV can cause disease in humans [via meat and/or milk] [source EFSA report]
o No further information is available
16/04/2012 27
Further ResearchWhat do we not Know (1)?
o Evolution of the overall epidemiological situation in the coming months ? As we speak …
• ~ Lambing / Calving period (period to breeding)
• Increase in cases of SBV in cattle from March 2012 is spectacular.
• ~ Spread of infection
o Evolution in cattle?
• Susceptibility of cattle / Immune status
• Need for serological surveys (diagnostic assays) in order to estimate that susceptibility
• Period of susceptibility to infection during the breeding
o Risk Factors?
• Case / control studies
16/04/2012 28
Further ResearchWhat do we not Know (2)?
o Origin of the initial contamination?
= Need for a thorough investigation at European level
o What about a new virus circulation and its consequences: What in 2012?
o Other species besides Ruminants?
o Other ways of transmission besides vertical & vector?
• Role of semen/embryo’s ?
16/04/2012 29
Conclusion(s)
o IMPACT SBV
• FARM/HERD LEVEL YES --���� Farmers/Vets = ����
• POPULATION YES = abortions ↑↑↑↑
• FERTILITY To be expected
• PRODUCTION LOSSES
• Sheep/Goat: YES (30% within a herd)
• Cattle: TOO EARLY as we speak ...
• CONSUMERS NO
16/04/2012 DG SANCO, Brussels 30
Aknowledgements
o FASFC (BE)
• Jozef Hooyberghs, Marc Raemaekers
o DGZ-VLAANDEREN (BE)
• Hans Van Loo, Guido Bertels, Sigrid Stoop, Koen De Bleecker
o ARSIA (BE)
• Laurent Delooz
o CODA-CERVA (BE)
• Brigitte Caij, Nick De Regge, Estelle Méroc
o CVI (NL)
• Armin Elbers
o FLI (DE)
• Franz Conratz, Martin Beer, Christophe Staubach
o AHVLA (UK) & DEFRA (UK)
• Gareth Hateley, Rachelle Avigad, Helen Roberts, KateS harpe, AlasdairCook / Mauricio Lopez, Christine Middlemiss
o ANSES (FR)
• Pascal Hendrickx
16/04/2012 31
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