The impact of the Infection: Country Indicators

Yves Van der Stede

Unit CVD-ERACODA-CERVA

DG Sanco, 2 April 2012

Outline

� Which might be “impact indicators” for SBV

� What do we know !?

� Timeline of SBV impact

� What do we not know?

� Further research

� Conclusion(s)

16/04/2012 2

Impact indicators for SBV

o Cases/Distribution: calfs, lambs, ...

• Confirmed cases in different SBV affected countries

o Symptoms

o Incidence at herd level

o Mortality data

o Birth data

o Milk production data

o Vector data

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Number of confirmed Cases (herds)

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The Netherlands (29/03)

Cattle Sheep Goat Total

124 105 5 244

Belgium (28/03)

138 162 2 302

Germany (26/03)

201 + 1 (Bison) 825 44 1070

UK (28/03)

20 203 0 223

FR (28/03)

59 854 11 924

Luxembourg, Italy , Spain (28/03)

± 9 in total

SBV infection and animal density in Belgium Sheep

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SBV infection and animal density in Germany

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sheep

cattle

goats

SBV infection in France

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Distribution of confirmed SBV cases[source AHVLA]

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Symptoms: Adults

o Probably often unapparent, but some acute disease during the vector-active season

• Fever

• Impaired general condition

• Anorexia

• Reduced milk yield (by up to 50%)

• Diarrhoea

o Vets were reporting this in NL and BE (pers. comm) during late summer in 2011 !

• Did we pick up that signal seriously ? What in 2012? • Recovery

• within a few days for the individuals

• 2-3 weeks at the herd scale 16/04/2012 9

Scanning surveillance submissions from cattle in five south-east England counties with “Milk drop”, “Malaise”

or “Diarrhoea” in 2010 and 2011 [source: AHVLA]

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No

obvious

increase

Symptoms: Offspring

• Malformed animals and stillbirths (calves, lambs)• Arthrogryposis (abnormal joints)

• Hydrocephaly (build up of fluid in skull)

• Brachygnathia inferior (overshot jaw)

• Ankylosis (stiff joints)

• Torticollis (twisted neck)

• Scoliosis (deformed spine)

o Vets and farmers haven’t seen this during main lambing (calving) period before summer 2011 !

o Vets and farmers could not link these symptoms to other known pathogens !

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Impact Cases: Timeline

o Expected period for detection of further cases based on infection time and gestation duration

[Source EFSA REPORT 2012:EN-241 ]

o As we speak …. ����

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Suspicious case reports in BE: sheep[source CODA-CERVA NRL]

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Suspicious case reports in BE: cattle[source CODA-CERVA NRL]

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Suspicion versus Abortus !?Subregions BELGIUM

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0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

twijfelachtig

positief

negatief

Region of Flanders

Region of Wallonia

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

27

/11

/20

11

09

/12

/20

11

11

/12

/20

11

13

/12

/20

11

15

/12

/20

11

16

/12

/20

11

18

/12

/20

11

19

/12

/20

11

21

/12

/20

11

23

/12

/20

11

25

/12

/20

11

26

/12

/20

11

28

/12

/20

11

30

/12

/20

11

01

/01

/20

12

03

/01

/20

12

05

/01

/20

12

07

/01

/20

12

09

/01

/20

12

11

/01

/20

12

13

/01

/20

12

18

/01

/20

12

27

/01

/20

12

04

/02

/20

12

14

/02

/20

12

17

/02

/20

12

19

/02

/20

12

21

/02

/20

12

01

/03

/20

12

04

/03

/20

12

06

/03

/20

12

08

/03

/20

12

twijfelachtig

positief

negatief

Impact on Sheep morbidity rate[source DGZ-Vlaanderen; Guido Bertels]

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MunicipalityNumber of ewes

which lambed

Number of SBV

aborted foeti% SBV

Number of dead

or euthaniazed

lambs

A 13 3 23

B 8 1 13

C 4 3 75 4 or 5

D 10 4 40

E 10 2 20

F 40 3 7

G 30 5 16 1 normal lamb

H 108 31 29

I 75 25 33

J 13 5 38

K 7 4 57

L 30 16 53 17

M 29 13 50 19

TOTAAL 373 114 30,5

First results of French questionnaire in Sheep SBV confirmed flocks (average proportions)

[source ANSES, P. Hendrickx; FESASS]

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Ewes which

have lambed

in SBV

confirmed

flock

6% aborted 94% at term

66% normal

aborted foeti

34% abnormal

aborted foeti

17% at least

1 lamb with

malformation

s/symptoms

83% all lambs

normal

First results of French questionnaire in Sheep SBV confirmed flocks (average proportions)

[source ANSES, P. Hendrickx; FESASS]

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Lamb in SBV

confirmed flock

17%

abortion/stillborn

/died in first 12h

2% born alive with

malformations/sympt

oms but still alive

after 12h

29% normal

aspect

71% abnormal

aspect

81% normal

Impact on Cattle morbidity rate at herd level

o Much lower than in sheep

• Additional 3% more abortions/abnormal foeti due to SBV

• To be confirmed !

• As we speak ... �

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Abortion data BE 2010-2011[source DGZ-Vlaanderen – Hans Van Loo]

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0

100

200

300

400

500

600

700

nb of foeti cattle

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

nb of small ruminants

Sheep fetal/neonatal carcase submissions 2011-12 (England and Wales): increase in submissions in

England in 2012 [source AHVLA]

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Cattle rendering plant data 2010-2011:mortality temporal clusters

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Cattle birth records data 2008-2012 (until feb 2012):

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0

20000

40000

60000

80000

100000

120000

140000

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12

2005

2006

2007

2008

2009

2010

2011

2012

Milk production data 2007-2012 (BE): no apparent decrease

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Vector Data

o Vector Monitoring is necessary !

• Overwintering in vectors?

• Positive pools of vectors/cullicoides found in Belgium and Denmark

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Fertility data-AI

o No reasons to believe until now that SBV has an impact on

• The number of Ais per cow

• Number of return to services

• Number of dystocia

(pers. Comm of CRV the Netherlands)

o No further information is available !

o To be confirmed

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Impact on Commodity/Consumer

o Unlikely that SBV can cause disease in humans [via meat and/or milk] [source EFSA report]

o No further information is available

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Further ResearchWhat do we not Know (1)?

o Evolution of the overall epidemiological situation in the coming months ? As we speak …

• ~ Lambing / Calving period (period to breeding)

• Increase in cases of SBV in cattle from March 2012 is spectacular.

• ~ Spread of infection

o Evolution in cattle?

• Susceptibility of cattle / Immune status

• Need for serological surveys (diagnostic assays) in order to estimate that susceptibility

• Period of susceptibility to infection during the breeding

o Risk Factors?

• Case / control studies

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Further ResearchWhat do we not Know (2)?

o Origin of the initial contamination?

= Need for a thorough investigation at European level

o What about a new virus circulation and its consequences: What in 2012?

o Other species besides Ruminants?

o Other ways of transmission besides vertical & vector?

• Role of semen/embryo’s ?

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Conclusion(s)

o IMPACT SBV

• FARM/HERD LEVEL YES --���� Farmers/Vets = ����

• POPULATION YES = abortions ↑↑↑↑

• FERTILITY To be expected

• PRODUCTION LOSSES

• Sheep/Goat: YES (30% within a herd)

• Cattle: TOO EARLY as we speak ...

• CONSUMERS NO

16/04/2012 DG SANCO, Brussels 30

Aknowledgements

o FASFC (BE)

• Jozef Hooyberghs, Marc Raemaekers

o DGZ-VLAANDEREN (BE)

• Hans Van Loo, Guido Bertels, Sigrid Stoop, Koen De Bleecker

o ARSIA (BE)

• Laurent Delooz

o CODA-CERVA (BE)

• Brigitte Caij, Nick De Regge, Estelle Méroc

o CVI (NL)

• Armin Elbers

o FLI (DE)

• Franz Conratz, Martin Beer, Christophe Staubach

o AHVLA (UK) & DEFRA (UK)

• Gareth Hateley, Rachelle Avigad, Helen Roberts, KateS harpe, AlasdairCook / Mauricio Lopez, Christine Middlemiss

o ANSES (FR)

• Pascal Hendrickx

16/04/2012 31