uk retail prospects jan 2012

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Bill Gates 1993

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The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales MonitorIn December, retail sales increased by 2.2% on a like-for-like basis, after falling 1.6% in November. Total retail sales were up by 4.1%. Excluding Easter distortions sales performance was the best since January.

Source: BRC

BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor: Like-for-Like and Total Sales

-6.0

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

No

v-0

8

Fe

b-0

9

Ma

y-0

9

Au

g-0

9

No

v-0

9

Fe

b-1

0

Ma

y-1

0

Au

g-1

0

No

v-1

0

Fe

b-1

1

Ma

y-1

1

Au

g-1

1

No

v-1

1

Like-for-Like Total

BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor: 3-month average

Source: BRC

In the three months to December, non-food sales fell by 1.2% while food sales grew by 2.1%. After taking into account inflation volumes fell.

0.2%

2.1%

-1.2%

December

-3.0%

-2.0%

-1.0%

0.0%

1.0%

2.0%

3.0%

4.0%

5.0%S

ep

- N

ov0

9

No

v -

Jan

10

Jan

- M

ar1

0

Ma

r -

Ma

y10

Ma

y -

Jul 1

0

Jul -

Se

p1

0

Se

p -

No

v10

No

v- J

an

11

Jan

- M

ar1

1

Ma

r- M

ay1

1

Ma

y -

Jul 1

1

Jul-

Se

p1

1

Se

p-N

ov1

1

% c

ha

ng

e y

ea

r-o

n-y

ea

r

Food

All sales

Non-food

The BRC-KPMG RSM: Non-food, non-store

Source: BRC

BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor: Non-food, non-store sales

8.6% year-on-year

The BRC-KPMG non-food non-store indicator reported annual sales growth of 8.6% in November. Sales were driven by widespread discounts and promotions. Online sales currently account for eight per cent of overall retail sales.

0.0

5.0

10.0

15.0

20.0

25.0

30.0

35.0

Nov

-08

Feb

-09

May

-09

Aug

-09

Nov

-09

Feb

-10

May

-10

Aug

-10

Nov

-10

Feb

-11

May

-11

Aug

-11

Nov

-11

Non-food non-store

BRC-Google Online Retail Monitor

The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index

Source: BRC-Nielsen

The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index fell to 2.0% in November from 2.9% just six months earlier. Food inflation slowed to 4.0%, from 5.7% in June, while non-food inflation remained at 0.8% from the previous month.

Food: 4.0%

Overall: 2.0%

Non-food: 0.8%

BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index

-4.0

-2.0

0.0

2.0

4.0

6.0

8.0

10.0

12.0

Jan-

08

Apr

-08

Jul-0

8

Oct

-08

Jan-

09

Apr

-09

Jul-0

9

Oct

-09

Jan-

10

Apr

-10

Jul-1

0

Oct

-10

Jan-

11

Apr

-11

Jul-1

1

Oct

-11

% c

hang

e ye

ar-o

n-ye

ar

Overall SPI Food Non-food

Consumer Confidence

Source: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence

Consumer confidence fell in December to its lowest level in almost three years when the economy was in recession. The climate for major purchases index worsened while consumers became more pessimistic about the UK’s general economic situation over the coming year. Confidence is likely to remain weak for some time to come.

-50

-40

-30

-20

-10

0

10

20Ju

n-0

7

Se

p-0

7

De

c-0

7

Ma

r-0

8

Jun

-08

Se

p-0

8

De

c-0

8

Ma

r-0

9

Jun

-09

Se

p-0

9

De

c-0

9

Ma

r-1

0

Jun

-10

Se

p-1

0

De

c-1

0

Ma

r-1

1

Jun

-11

Se

p-1

1

De

c-1

1

Main index Major purchases Future savings

Over a quarter of GB Shoppers claim not to have any spare cash

Source: Nielsen

“I have no spare cash”

Consumer Confidence

24%23%

19%

21%

19%

22%

26%27%

30%

32%

28%

15%

17%

19%

21%

23%

25%

27%

29%

31%

33%

35%Q

1 20

09

Q2

2009

Q3

2009

Q4

2009

Q1

2010

Q2

2010

Q3

2010

Q4

2010

Q1

2011

Q2

2011

Q3

2011

BRC/Springboard-ATCM Footfall and Vacancy Monitor

Source: BRC, 2011

Shopping Centre24%

Out of Town21%

High Street55%

Where is everyone ?