uk retail prospects jan 2012
TRANSCRIPT
“We always overestimate the change that will occur in the next two years and underestimate the change that will occur in the next ten. Don’t be lulled into inaction.”
Bill Gates
“The internet? We are not interested in it.”
Bill Gates 1993
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The BRC-KPMG Retail Sales MonitorIn December, retail sales increased by 2.2% on a like-for-like basis, after falling 1.6% in November. Total retail sales were up by 4.1%. Excluding Easter distortions sales performance was the best since January.
Source: BRC
BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor: Like-for-Like and Total Sales
-6.0
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
No
v-0
8
Fe
b-0
9
Ma
y-0
9
Au
g-0
9
No
v-0
9
Fe
b-1
0
Ma
y-1
0
Au
g-1
0
No
v-1
0
Fe
b-1
1
Ma
y-1
1
Au
g-1
1
No
v-1
1
Like-for-Like Total
BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor: 3-month average
Source: BRC
In the three months to December, non-food sales fell by 1.2% while food sales grew by 2.1%. After taking into account inflation volumes fell.
0.2%
2.1%
-1.2%
December
-3.0%
-2.0%
-1.0%
0.0%
1.0%
2.0%
3.0%
4.0%
5.0%S
ep
- N
ov0
9
No
v -
Jan
10
Jan
- M
ar1
0
Ma
r -
Ma
y10
Ma
y -
Jul 1
0
Jul -
Se
p1
0
Se
p -
No
v10
No
v- J
an
11
Jan
- M
ar1
1
Ma
r- M
ay1
1
Ma
y -
Jul 1
1
Jul-
Se
p1
1
Se
p-N
ov1
1
% c
ha
ng
e y
ea
r-o
n-y
ea
r
Food
All sales
Non-food
The BRC-KPMG RSM: Non-food, non-store
Source: BRC
BRC-KPMG Retail Sales Monitor: Non-food, non-store sales
8.6% year-on-year
The BRC-KPMG non-food non-store indicator reported annual sales growth of 8.6% in November. Sales were driven by widespread discounts and promotions. Online sales currently account for eight per cent of overall retail sales.
0.0
5.0
10.0
15.0
20.0
25.0
30.0
35.0
Nov
-08
Feb
-09
May
-09
Aug
-09
Nov
-09
Feb
-10
May
-10
Aug
-10
Nov
-10
Feb
-11
May
-11
Aug
-11
Nov
-11
Non-food non-store
BRC-Google Online Retail Monitor
The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index
Source: BRC-Nielsen
The BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index fell to 2.0% in November from 2.9% just six months earlier. Food inflation slowed to 4.0%, from 5.7% in June, while non-food inflation remained at 0.8% from the previous month.
Food: 4.0%
Overall: 2.0%
Non-food: 0.8%
BRC-Nielsen Shop Price Index
-4.0
-2.0
0.0
2.0
4.0
6.0
8.0
10.0
12.0
Jan-
08
Apr
-08
Jul-0
8
Oct
-08
Jan-
09
Apr
-09
Jul-0
9
Oct
-09
Jan-
10
Apr
-10
Jul-1
0
Oct
-10
Jan-
11
Apr
-11
Jul-1
1
Oct
-11
% c
hang
e ye
ar-o
n-ye
ar
Overall SPI Food Non-food
Consumer Confidence
Source: GfK NOP Consumer Confidence
Consumer confidence fell in December to its lowest level in almost three years when the economy was in recession. The climate for major purchases index worsened while consumers became more pessimistic about the UK’s general economic situation over the coming year. Confidence is likely to remain weak for some time to come.
-50
-40
-30
-20
-10
0
10
20Ju
n-0
7
Se
p-0
7
De
c-0
7
Ma
r-0
8
Jun
-08
Se
p-0
8
De
c-0
8
Ma
r-0
9
Jun
-09
Se
p-0
9
De
c-0
9
Ma
r-1
0
Jun
-10
Se
p-1
0
De
c-1
0
Ma
r-1
1
Jun
-11
Se
p-1
1
De
c-1
1
Main index Major purchases Future savings
Over a quarter of GB Shoppers claim not to have any spare cash
Source: Nielsen
“I have no spare cash”
Consumer Confidence
24%23%
19%
21%
19%
22%
26%27%
30%
32%
28%
15%
17%
19%
21%
23%
25%
27%
29%
31%
33%
35%Q
1 20
09
Q2
2009
Q3
2009
Q4
2009
Q1
2010
Q2
2010
Q3
2010
Q4
2010
Q1
2011
Q2
2011
Q3
2011
BRC/Springboard-ATCM Footfall and Vacancy Monitor
Source: BRC, 2011
Shopping Centre24%
Out of Town21%
High Street55%
Where is everyone ?