torture your data long enough, itll tell you anything

flickr - emiliano-iko

Progress in Lean Startup means testing your vision.

2.bp.blogspot.com

Data is a tool. Like any other, it has appropriate and

inappropriate uses.

Torture your data long enough, and it’ll tell you

anything.

http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/correlation-or-causation-12012011-gfx.html?

Is Manchester United causing global warming?

http://theconversation.edu.au/how-david-beckham-caused-global-warming-the-man-u-climate-model-4548

To avoid this trap, learn with falsifiable hypotheses.

If X then Y.

Not Y.Therefore not X.

And choose your test before you collect your data.

If this problem is really crucial, I’ll find 5 people spending money to solve it now.

flickr - thomasleuthard

But I didn’t find 5 people. So maybe it’s not so crucial.

If my service is useful, my early customers will still be active users after 2 months.

1.bp.blogspot.com

Most of my new users go silent in about 3 weeks.Maybe this isn’t useful enough yet.

flickr - jetuma

Time to get learning. What’s your falsifiable hypothesis?