torture your data long enough, itll tell you anything
TRANSCRIPT
flickr - emiliano-iko
Progress in Lean Startup means testing your vision.
2.bp.blogspot.com
Data is a tool. Like any other, it has appropriate and
inappropriate uses.
Torture your data long enough, and it’ll tell you
anything.
http://www.businessweek.com/magazine/correlation-or-causation-12012011-gfx.html?
Is Manchester United causing global warming?
http://theconversation.edu.au/how-david-beckham-caused-global-warming-the-man-u-climate-model-4548
To avoid this trap, learn with falsifiable hypotheses.
If X then Y.
Not Y.Therefore not X.
And choose your test before you collect your data.
If this problem is really crucial, I’ll find 5 people spending money to solve it now.
flickr - thomasleuthard
But I didn’t find 5 people. So maybe it’s not so crucial.
If my service is useful, my early customers will still be active users after 2 months.
1.bp.blogspot.com
Most of my new users go silent in about 3 weeks.Maybe this isn’t useful enough yet.
flickr - jetuma
Time to get learning. What’s your falsifiable hypothesis?