tools and technologies for water resources planning and climate change adaptation
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Tools and Technologies for water resources
planning and climate change adaptationDr. Chusit Apirumanekul
Dr. Vitor Vieira Vasconcelos, CNPq Scholarship (Brazil)
Miaojie Sun
Session 3
Workshop on Climate Change Adaptation for Bhutan
26th February, 2015
Bangkok, Stockholm Environment Institute, Asia Centre
1Developed with the support of CNPq – National Council
for Technological and Scientific Development – Brazil
Objectives
• To achieve basic understanding on steps in water
resources planning
• To have better understanding on tool/technology
that can be used for water resource planning and
climate change adaptation
• To jointly assess the impacts of climate changes
on water resources in Nepal
• To brainstorm the options to address the
identified issues for planning processes
2
Contents
• Section 1 : Introduction to Integrated Water
Resources Management (IWRM) and decision
support tools
• Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for IWRM
• Section 3 : Group works
3
Background of IWRM• Water is a key driver of economic
and social development
• Drivers such as demography, economic growth and climatic variability increase the stress on water resources
• Decision makers have difficulties on water allocation
• The basis of IWRM is that different uses of water are interdependent
• Integrated management considers different uses of water resources together
4
Basis of IWRM
• The basis of IWRM is that different uses of
water are considered together.
Navigation Industrial
Flood protection Mining
Irrigation Electricity
Domestic and commercial Fishery
Environmental control / ecosystem Salinity
Recreation / tourism etc
5
IWRM definition
• IWRM is a process which
promotes the coordinated
development and management
of water, land and related
resources, in order to maximize
the resultant economic and social
welfare in an equitable manner
without compromising the
sustainability of vital ecosystems.
GWP, TAC Background Paper No. 4: Integrated
Water Resources Management
6
IWRM definition
• IWRM (Bogardi and Nachtnebel 1994; Kindler 2000)
is a systematic approach to planning and
management that considers a range of supply-side
and demand-side processes and actions, and
incorporates stakeholder participation in decision
processes.
http://www.dwaf.gov.za/iwrm/contents/about/what_is_iwrm.asp
(adapted from GWP (2010))
7
Driving forces for water resources• Population growth: more people, more water demands
• Urbanization: migration from rural to urban areas leading to
water supply and waste water treatment issues
• Economic growth: increased demand for economic activities
and land use change
• Water quality: pollution from industrial, agricultural and
municipal sources
• Climate variability: more intense floods and droughts
increase vulnerability of people (uncertainty about water
cycle regimes)
8
9
Establish status and
overall goals
� Water resources issues
� Goals and progress towards
IWRM framework
� Recent international
developments
Analyse gaps
� Water resources management
function required
� Management potentials and
constraints
Build commitment to
reform process
� Political will
� Awareness
� Multi stakeholder dialogue
Prepare strategy and
action plan
� Enabling environment
� Institutional roles
� Management instruments
� Links to national policies
Implement frameworks
� IWRM framework
� Framework for water
infrastructure development
� Build capacity
Monitor and evaluate
progress
� Indicators of progress towards
IWRM and water
infrastructure development
framework
Build commitment to
actions
� Political adoption
� Stakeholder acceptance
� Identifying financing
The IWRM Planning Cycle
Source : http://www.gwp.org/en/The-Challenge/What-is-IWRM/IWRM-Application/
IWRM has no fixed
beginnings or endings
Data collection
and data analysis
Communication
and stakeholder
engagement
Regulatory
instruments –
standards, land use
plan, subsidies,
charges, taxes and
etc.
Allocation and
conflict resolutions
Decision Support
Tools
What are Decision Support Tools - DST?
Interactive procedures, software and
databases to assist in making informed
decisions
10
Decision Support Tool (DST)
• There is always a wide range of data available to the decision-maker
• Decision Support Tool is to provide information in a form that readily supports the decision
• Water resource management – meteorological data, hydrologic data, geologic data, landscape, landuse, population and etc.
• The use of DST to assist in water resource management issues constitute some amounts of work being performed on developing computer based decision support tools to facilitate the analysis processes.
11
DST to understand the integration…
in the natural systems:
• between land and water
• between rainfall, surface water and
groundwater
• between water quantity and quality
• between upstream and downstream
• between the freshwater system and the
coastal watersReference: IWRM at a Glance. Global Water Parnership – GWP.
(http://www.gwp.org/Global/The%20Challenge/Resource%20material/IWRM%20at%20a%20glance.pdf)
12
Functions of DST
• Organize data (databases)
• Visualize data
• Analyze
• System Modeling
• Communication
13
Examples of Decision Support Tools
• Geographical Information Systems
– Geodatabases
– Remote Sensing
– Spatial Analysis
– Web-visualization
Spatial Analysis of flow Accumulation in Ayeyarwady Delta. In: Theilen-Willige, B., &
Pararas-Carayannis, G. (2009). Natural hazard assessment of SW Myanmar-a contribution of
remote sensing and GIS methods to the detection of areas vulnerable to earthquakes and
tsunami/cyclone flooding. Science of Tsunami Hazards, 28(2), 108
14
Examples of Decision Support Tools
• Hydrological Modeling
– River Flow
– Groundwater Flow
– Water Quality
– Flood
– Water use
– Reservoir Management
WEAP and MODFLOW modelling. Available at:
http://www.bgr.bund.de/EN/Themen/Wasser/Projekte/abges
chlossen/TZ/Acsad_dss/dss_fb_en.html
15
Examples of Decision Support Tools
• Climate Change Models
– Trends in temperature
and rainfall
– Vulnerability to climate
change (based on social
and economic data)
16
Reference: eWater Source — Australia's national hydrological modelling platform (http://www.ewater.com.au/products/ewater-source/)
Will there be some
climate change?
What happens if we add an
irrigation project?
If we deforest an area, what is the
effect on river flow and sediments?
And if we build a new water
infrastructure, what are the
benefits and costs?
Considering the expected city growth, When will
there be conflict with upstream water use?
If we change the crop, what is the
effect on river sediments?
Practical use of DST in IWRM
17
Section 2 : Tools and Techniques for
IWRM
1. Structural measures
– Flood control structures
– Water harvesting
2. Non-structural measures
– Modelling
– Remote sensing and Geographical Information System (GIS)
– Weather indexes
– Early warning system
18
Structural measure
• Viewing as structural hard-engineered interventions, such as
floodway and reservoir, as well as more natural measures, such
as wetlands and natural buffers
• Reducing flood and drought hazards by controlling the flow of
water in rivers and streams.
• Tending to transfer flood risk from one location only to increase
it in another
• Remaining some residual risk of
flooding
• Keeping water away from people
19
Structural measures – Flood control
structures (1/2)
• Flood Storage / Reservoir
• Confinement of flow by
dyke, levee or embankment
• Channel improvement
• Bypass channels or
floodways
• Drainage of flood water by pumping
NICOLAS ASFOURI AFP/Getty
Images
20
Structural measures – Flood control
structures (2/2)
21
Structural measure - Rainwater
harvesting (1/5)
• The term rainwater harvesting refers to reuse
of stored water, including water purification,
and can form part of a sustainable drainage
system
• Most commonly, reuse will be for purposes
which are less sensitive to water quality (such as irrigation, washing or toilet flushing).
22
Structural measure - Rainwater
harvesting (2/5)
Provisioning
• Can increase crop productivity, food supply and income
• Can increase water and fodder for livestock and poultry
• Can increase infiltration, thus recharging shallow groundwater sources and river base flow
• Improves productive habitats, and increases species diversity in flora and fauna
Regulating
• Can affect the temporal
distribution of water in
landscape
• Reduces fast flows and
reduces incidences of flooding
• Reduces soil erosion
• Bridges water supply in
droughts and dry spells
• Stop polluted runoff before reaching waterbodies
Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk Management for the 21st
Century (World Bank, 2011)23
Structural measure - Rainwater
harvesting (3/5)
• The storage of rainwater in
numerous small tanks helps in
reducing peak runoff and
controlling overflowing of
drainage infrastructure.
• This is more cost effective than
storing rainwater in larger
reservoirs or improving the
carrying capacity of the
drainage infrastructure.
• This however requires
effective public participation and awareness generation.
http://hk-magazine.com/city-living/article/underground-hong-kong
Source : Cities and Flooding : A Guide to Integrated Urban Flood Risk
Management for the 21st Century (World Bank, 2011)
24
Rainwater harvesting (4/5)
Example in Brazil
Mountainous context:• Few plain places with deep
soil, to dig larger ponds
• Difficult access for tractors
• Embankment ponds in steep slopes can break and offer more risks
• Many small scattered embankment ponds may offer less risk
• Ponds along roads to facilitate the access
Source: http://www.panoramio.com/photo/14270801
Source :
http://projetobarraginhas.blogspot.com/2012/09/fazendas-produtoras-de-agua-primeira.html
25
Rainwater harvesting (5/5) - Household
levelRainfall
Roof top
collectionOpen space
harvesting
Direct
storage
Groundwat
er recharge
Filtering
chamber
Use
Source: Chennai Metro Water.
http://chennaimetrowater.gov.in/departments/rainwater.htm
http://www.bloggang.com/vi
ewblog.php?id=lifeinbelgique
&date=01-06-2011&group=27&gblog=1
26
Non-structural measure
• Based on the concept of ‘risk awareness’ -
how to live with flood and drought
• Preventing flood and drought damage based
on acceptance them as natural processes that
cannot be completely controlled
• NOT related to infrastructure
• Ex:
– Changing crop patterns
– Keeping people away from water
27
Example of flood routing models
• Hydrologic routing (simple) – balancing of inflow,
outflow and volume of storage through use of
continuity equation
• Hydraulic routing (complex) – more accurate and is
based on solution of
continuity equation
momentum equation
28
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yg
A
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Hydrological and Hydraulics model• Hydrological model
Simulation of processes in turning
rainfall into surface runoff and
simplified channel runoff
• Hydraulics model
Simulation of flood propagation
in the channel (open channel /
closed conduit) which may
include backwater effects, flow
through hydraulics structure and
2-D flows)
29
Hydrological / Rainfall-Runoff Model
1D&2D Hydraulic model / flood routing
Flood map (50-year return period)
Rainfall analysis – 50-year return period rainfall e vent
Flood modelling system
30
Crest Model for Bhutan
CREST – Coupled Routing and Excess Storage
• Hydrological Model for each cell in a raster
Weather + Surface characteristics
Water Balance
Excess of water is routed downstream to next cellSource: Crest 2.1. User Manual. National Weather Center. Norman, USA. 2015.
http://hydro.ou.edu/files/Crest_Workshops/CRESTv2.1/CREST-User-Manual-v2.1_Fortran.pdf
31
Crest Viewer - Bhutan
Available at: http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanCrest/#32
Case Study – Impact of Climate Change
in Bhutan Rivers
• Simulated climate change of + 1.5 oC in 2050 and 2 scenarios of +2.5 oC and + 4.9 oC for 2100
• HBV (Hydrologiska ByrånsVattenbalansavdelning) Hydrological Model
– Distributed model (cell by cell analysis)
– Input: rainfall, temperature and land use
– Calibrated with gauging stations
– Output for each cell: stream flow, evaporation, soil moisture, groundwater storage
Beldring, S. 2011. Climate change impacts on the flow regimes of rivers in Bhutan and possible
consequences for hydropower development. NVE.
Available at: webby.nve.no/publikasjoner/report/2011/report2011_04.pdf 33
ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2050,
model Echam A2
34
ResultsChange in mean annual runoff (mm) for 2100,
model Echam A2
35
NON-STRUCTURAL : GIS
36
Source:
http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/
http://www.esri.com/what-is-gis
Geographic – Spatial data related to the Earth
Information – Other attribute data in tabulate
as information about each of the spatial
feature
System – A technology that allows
you to visualize, question, analyze,
and interpret data
What is GIS?
37
How data is stored?
Layers
Source:
http://www.gislounge.com/what-is-gis/
Attributes in the Geodatabase
38
Case Study in Bhutan
Glaciers have retreated by
20-30 meters annually
especially in the Bhutan
Himalayas, leading to a
rough estimation of about
500 meters retreat in the
last 25 years.
Source: Chhophel, Mr. Karma G. “Climate change adaptation and glof risk reduction in the region and beyond: current developments and opportunities”. In: Glacial Lake Outburst Flood (GLOF) ‘Reducing Risks and Ensuring Preparedness. 5-7 December, 2013. Proceedings Summary.
Karma. 2008. Hazard Zonation for Glacial Lake
Outburst Flood (GLOF) in Bhutan. Department of Geology and Mines. NCAP.
39
Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan
http://apps.geoportal.icimod.org/BhutanGlacier/index.html#
Mountain Geoportal. Glacier Dynamics in Bhutan App. Servir Himalaya.40
WEAP : WATER EVALUATION AND
PLANNING SYSTEM
41
• Integrates stream flow and water demands
• Exploration of future scenarios for decision support– Changes in water use
– Strategies for allocation
– Structural measures (e.g., reservoirs)
– Climate change
• Many sub-models (glacial melting, finance, groundwater, hydropower, water quality, among others)
• Developed by Stockholm Environment Institute
• Free license for government, academic and non-profit organizations in developing countries
Available at: http://www.weap21.org/42
Case Study – WEAP model for
Andes mountains of Peru
(Rímac and Santa Basins)
Andes in Peru. Photo: SEI/IRD - 2010
Modeling the
hydrological
impacts of
climate change
in glacial
mountains
SEI and IRD. 2010. Assessment of the Impacts of Climate Change on Mountain Hydrology.
World Bank Reports. Available at: http://hdl.handle.net/10986/227843
Results of the model
• Accelerated glacier melting
• Changes in mountain wetlands
hydrology (environmental impact)
• Average discharge decrease
• Reduction in peak flow discharge
Changes in glaciers in 2036 with
+ 2 degrees celsius
Reduction of 21% of discharge in La Balsa sub-basin
Different scenarios of climate change in
2040
+ 0.5 degrees
+ 2 degrees
44
WEAP : WATER CITY MANAGEMENT
– BANGKOK CASE
45
Water SupplyMWA water supply
• Chao Phraya River : 60 m3/s
• Mae Klong Dam : 45 m3/s
• Residential, Industrial and
others
Groundwater supply
• Unlimited supply
• Private withdrawal in any
province
• Percentage of non-residential
water supplies from MWA
Sources of surface water supply
Source of GW supply
46
Water demand
• Water demand from residence is estimated
by LPCD (litre per capita per day) multiplied
by 365 days (200 LPCD)
• Other water demands (business, industrial,
public and others) is obtained from MWA
water sale by sectors in Nonthaburi and
Samutprakarn
• LPCD in Bangkok has been increasing
Water consumption = Fn (household size, rising income and water price)
47
48
NON-STRUCTURAL : WEATHER
INDEXES (DROUGHT INDEX)
49
Approaches to analyze droughts
• Meteorological
• Hydrological
• Vegetational
• SocioeconomicSource: Wilhite, D.A. and M.H. Glantz. 1985. Understanding the drought phenomenon: the role of definitions. Water Int., 10:111-120.
Runoff generation
Water use
Rainfall
Evaporation
Stream flow
Water in the soil
Means to access water
50
SPEI – Standardized Precipitation Index
WMO. 2012. Standardized Precipitation Index User Guide.
Available at: http://www.wamis.org/agm/pubs/SPI/WMO_1090_EN.pdf
51
• Precipitation – Evapotranspiration
(calculated from temperature)
SPEI Values
SPEI
Global drought monitor.
http://sac.csic.es/spei/map/maps.html
Monitoring SPEI - November 2014
NON-STRUCTURAL : EARLY
WARNING SYSTEM
53
Flash Flood Monitoring
• Mekong River Commission Flash Flood Guidance system
• To provide real-time informational guidance products for flash flood warning (diagnostic system, NOT prediction)
• A rapid evaluation on the potential for a flash flood for a specific location
• Flash Flood Guidance = Satellite rainfall estimate + telemetry system + soil moisture
54
Soil Water Saturation Fraction Satellite Estimate Rainfall
55
Flash Flood Guidance
1-hour 3-hour
56
Group exercises (60+30 mins)
1. Divide into 3 groups (Southwest, Middle and East) and
discuss on characteristics, climate pattern and climate
change impacts on climate pattern (5 mins)
2. List out the impacts of CC on water resources issues in
details (10 mins)
3. Discuss on the potential tools/technologies (10 mins)
4. Identify gaps on those identified tools/technologies (15
mins)
5. Discuss on potential solutions to address the gaps (20 mins)
6. Report to plenary + comments (30 mins : 10 mins each)
57
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