the role of productive sanitation for global sustainability johan rockström executive director
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The role of productive Sanitation for global
sustainabilityJohan Rockström
Executive Director
23-04-20Johan Rockström and Carl Folke, Stockholm Resilience Centre
A biosphere shaped by humanity
Potsdam Memorandum 10th October 2007
”Is there a ”third way” between environmental destablisation and persisting under-development? Yes, there is, but this way has to bring about, rapidly and ubiquituously, a thorough re-invention of our industrial metabolism – the Great Transformation. This is an awesome challenge, yet we have one comparative advantage over all previous generations: an incredibly advanced system of knowledge production that can be harnessed, in principle, to co-generate that transformation together with courageous political leaders, enlightened business executives and civil society at large”
Globalisation of the EnvironmentFishmeal imports to shrimp farming in Thailand
Water and food to attain the MDGs
2200 km3/yr “new” water 2005-2015
Source Nutrients Production System Consumption ”Waste” load to aquatic ecosystems
Closing the Nutrient Loop
The System dilemma
Oil Price
”Sustainable” biofuel supply
Wealth driven diet shifts
Ecosystem ServicesThe wealth generated for human beings
Millennium Ecosystem AssessmentKey messages
60 % of analysed ecosystem services degraded over the past 50 years
Agriculture the major driver behind ecosystem change
The Challenge of meeting food demands on sustainable ground
New Green-Green Revolution Focus on small-scale agriculture in
developing countries – Triply Green Revolution
Agricultural revolution in integrated soil-water-crop management necessary
Nutrient Recycling and Agricultural productivity Largest potential in sub-Saharan Africa (return
80 – 100 % of current fertiliser use) Developing countries – large potential to return
substantial volumes of macro-nutrients (2-3 kg P, 10-15 kg N)
0
500
1000
1500
2000
2500
3000
3500
0 250 500 750 1000 1250
Rainfall (mm yr-1)
Gra
in y
ield
(kg
ha-1
)
Farmers yield - highrainfallFarmers yield - lowrainfallYields without nutrientdeficitSimulated waterlimited production
Dynamics of Water
0
2000
4000
6000
8000
10000
0 2 4 6 8 10
Yield (t/ha)
Wat
er p
rod
uct
ivit
y (m
3/to
n)
Pandey et al.
Dancette, 1983
Stewart et al., 1975
Rockstrom et al., 1998
Save 1500 km3/yr ~ Present Consumptive Use in World Irrigation
C SOURCES AND SINKS (Gt/yr)
Ind
ust
ry7
Land U
se C
hang
e
1.6
Volc
anoes
0.08
Weath
eri
ng
0.19
120
Ph
oto
syn
the
sis
2.7
Incr
ease
d U
pta
ke b
y
Pla
nts
120
Resip
irati
on
LAND
Adapted from New Scientist 19 May 2007
The potential ”flip” of the Baltic Sea
A vulnerable Social-ecological system under extreme stress
23-04-20
Adaptation to Climate ChangeAn urgent development challenge
Agrarian revolutionIntegration water, soil, nutrients
CA
WHEcoSan
Concluding remarks Huge global challenge of a new Green-Green-
Green revolution Globalisation and the Planetary phase of
sustainability requires new thinking on the future of agriculture
Small-holder farmers in tropical developing countries in focus
Closing the sanitation loop AND integrating with innovations in water and land management can provide the key to a new green revolution
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