the future of technology….& the end of government as we know it? peter cochrane conceptlabs ca

The Future of technology….& the end of government as we know IT?

Peter CochraneConceptLabs CA

Disruptive technologies - Example

A homework assignment for a 14 year old!

You may wish to close your eyes

Where have we come from…

…and where are we heading?

Satanic Mills

Fordism…•mass production•mass automation•increased efficiency•much more for much less•deskilling•fewer employed•a new techno-elite•more administration•more non-essential people

Growing hierarchies•centralized control•less risk taking •focus on cost cutting •less adaptable •prone to massive failure

Virtual business• no hierarchies

• death of geography

• fluctuating assets

• information intensive

• highly adaptable

• rapid birth - death

Machine takeover•very few people•humans augmentation•AI & AL takeover •adaptable within limits•prone to over production

Industry migrating to geographically dispersed networks and clusters…

…the globalisation of everything…

The co-location=collaboration myth

~10%~2%

~0.4%

Likelihood ofcollaboration

And governments?•change is very hard!•lagging on all fronts•limited public purse•not really a business •no competition•old minds •growing hierarchy•growing bureaucracy•losing control•losing influence

People are doing…

whatever it takes to win!

They will no longer wait for slowcompanies or government - they are now far more inclined to ignore the law and just do it!

Three types of workerPart-time

Projectfocusedcontractor

Core

•Agiltiy•Costefficiency

Lifestylepursuit

•Skilladvantage

•Innovation

CareerSecurity

•Skillutilisation•Goal focus

ExpressionAutonomy

Individual benefits

Business benefits

Challenges for the individual•understand company•understand business•keep skilled•track technology demand •share commitment•no back up/support •work in virtual teams•use latest media•balance demands•feast to famine cycles

BUT - some peoplejust don’t get IT!

We have come a long way!

We are such linear thinkers…We don’t cope well with multiple dimensionsWe confuse data and informationWe store the useless and misplace the useful We need knowledge but create a fog of confusion Networks and networking might just save us!

BUT

So innocent looking…

y= ex

…it is compound interest on steroids!

Time

Rate of change

Today

Technology

SocietyPeople

CompaniesBusiness

Legal SystemsGovernments

It aint about $ - it is about time

A future of man, woman & machine...

1940 20101950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

0.1110

10101010

101010101010

10101010

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

10

9

11

12

13

15

17

1000xVacuum tubes Transistors

Integrated circuitsMicro-processors

Relays

UNIVAC ScalarENIAC

IBM 704

Stretch

LARC

CDC1604

CDC 6600

CDC 7600

ILLIAC IVCray -2

Cray C-90

Cray-1Cray X-MP

Cray Y-MP

CM-2Delta

CM-5

TeraflopHuman Brain

100,000Teraflopdesktop

SUPERCOMPUTERS

Vector

Multiprocessors

Massively parallel

FLOPS

time

Technology$

The ‘S’ Curve

time

Technology$

The ‘S’ Curve Continuum

CassetteTape

CD

DVD

Tape

Moore’s Wall

ThermionicTube

Transistor

IC1

IC2

IC3

IC4

IC5

ICn

1915 46 59 2010 2025

3D ICsMolecularQuantumGeneticBiologicalOptical Computing

NewSensorsNetworksSoftwareLifeformsIntelligences

Log Scale

Telecoms Capacity & Demand

1011

109

107

105

103

101

transmissioncapacity

(bit/s)

1840 1880 1920 1960 2000 2040

capacity used

capacity available

WDM

optical fibre

coax PCM

coax carrier

pair-cable PCM

pair-cable carrier

radio

telegraph

telephone

DWDMPONS

Analogue Digital Analogue Digital An/Dig

Information Growth

Library ofAlexandriadestroyed

Printing

Electronicstorage

1000,000

TBytes

100,000

10,000

1,000

100

10

1

0.1

100 300 1000 2000 Year

The fountof all

knowledge

Becomingspecialised

Highly specialised

All knowledgethrough

technology?

1800 1900 TODAY 2000 +

No one knows anything anymore...

If only it was all this simple...

Markets

Va

riab

les

Sources of return

Industry Dimensions

Competition

Regulation

Globalisation

Segmentation

CustomersTechnology

Convergence

Organisation

Strategy

Social

Economic

Political

Axiom 1: Mutually exclusive...

ProcessDefinitionControlHierarchy

Adaptable - Fleet of FootReliability

EfficiencyBrittleness

Axiom 2: Mutually exclusive...

Security, Constraints, Irrationality,Lack of understanding, Rumour…

Risk

Productivity

WealthGenerationCreativityFreedom

Not so Axiomatic… ...Exponential Failure

Analogue Digital

Brittleness Is it brittle?

Is it visible?

I only see itwhen it fails!

Sudden, cliff Like failures

Exponentially more for exponentially less...

1890 1990

Cost/Bit Bit/s

Rec

ycle

Trash

Consumer

Trash Consumer

Distribution ManufactureRaw

MaterialsRETAIL

Ecosystem

Rec

ycle

Trash

Consumer

Trash Consumer

Distribution ManufactureRaw

MaterialsRETAIL

Ecosystem

B-B B-B B-B

B-CC-CC-BMobile

Linear Channel

Adam Smith…et al3/4D Thinking

Finite Source

Finite Sink

Limited materialsproductionroutes to marketfinancecommunication

Limited populationappetitesexpectationfinancecommunication

TodaynD - NonLinear Thinking

Unlimited (materials?) - bitsproductionroutes to marketfinancecommunication

Unlimited populationappetitesexpectationfinancecommunication

Infinite Sink

Infinite Source

NonLinear

Channel/s

The Future is Chaos!

HierarchicalStructured

Self- Organisedand Chaotic

2000s1980s

Telegraph Telephone Internet ? Intranets

A connected world is chaotic….

00.00 06.00 12.00 18.00 24.00

0

100

50

200

150

Hour of the Day

ActiveSite Visitors

Net visitors come in packs….

The dotcom bust!

• Greed• Stupidity• Naivety• The old economy torpedoed the new• No bandwidth in the local loop!

But this is but a glitch - the internet is very young - and so are mobile phones, PDAs, PCs, wearables, things & people on line etc

3G Carnage!

If we ran a company....

Company

Raw Materials

ComponentsModules

Direct Customers

Sub-ContractsDealerships

If we ran a company....

Company

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Get the utilisation up... ...get the costs down...

But many companies do this....

Unit

Raw Materials

Direct Customers

Let’s create expense by internal constraints... ...and an internal only market...

Many companies...don’t do this...

Co

Co

Co

Co

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

They do this...

Co

Co

Co

Co

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

And worse....they stove pipe...

Co

Co

Co

Co

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Utilisation

Cost/Price/Unit

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

CoNetwork

Solutions

Operations

Systems

If only more companies looked.. like this...

Network

Solutions

Operations

Systems

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

Co

From the few to the many...Concentrated

Expertise & SkillDistributedIgnorance

Technology

Telephone Operators Dial & ButtonsComputing Mainframe PCCopiers Corp Centre Office XeroxPrinting Hot Metal Offset/Laser Jet

From the few to the many...Concentrated

Expertise & SkillDistributedIgnorance

Technology

N

$

~Nn

Ab

ility

to

Com

pet

e

Where is the energy?

Dispersed - ChaoticAdaptable Fleet of Foot

Internalised Externalised

Technology

Centralised Control - HierarchyInflexible & Ponderous

Recent experience…

Fixed Cellular LAN WLAN Phone Phone 802.11

NO• WLAN• LAN• 2nd Phone Line• Socket Standard

Getting on-line in the EU

The future - think beyond IT!Artificial IntelligenceArtificial LifeRoboticsMaterialsGeneticsProteonicsNonoTechNon-linear opticsQuantum computinget al

More & fasterchange than everbefore in ourhistory - and itwill be (slightly!)out of control

The really big issues?Ageing populations - fewer workersHealth & Care - less money more demandEducation & Training - the wrong modelLogistics - can we afford to keep travellingEnergy - we are eating the planetSecurity - a 13th century enemy?Defence - just who & where is the enemy?Globalization - inevitable but hard to doCan government keep up/be effective?Can government get out of the way?Can social research ever get relevant?Can technology help?

Net Spectrum

100%

0%

HierarchyControl

Traffic

Random Bursty Chaotic

100%Telephone Internet Parasitic

ResilienceLatencyFlexibilityReliabilityScalability

Internet

Parasitic

Economy

Static Mobile

0%

What do we need?Less government and controlMore freedom of communicationMore freedom of movementMore freedom of actionMore freedom of trade Lower hierarchiesMore start-up companies to replace the oldA better educated & more adaptable populationMore self sufficiency

In order to create vibrant economies!

Thank you,

cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net