To Infinity & Beyond!

Peter CochraneConceptLabs CA Co-Founder

Wireless communication Personal Communication

Faster & Faster Wealth Generation

0102030405060708090

100

1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10

New

Com

pan

y V

alu

e

US$Bn

PCInternet

Year

Mobile

Rec

ycle

Trash

Consumer

Trash Consumer

Distribution ManufactureRaw

MaterialsRETAIL

Ecosystem

Rec

ycle

Trash

Consumer

Trash Consumer

Distribution ManufactureRaw

MaterialsRETAIL

Ecosystem

B-B B-B B-B

B-CC-CC-BMobileMachine

2G - A field of dreams…

…& 750M did, just for Voice & SMS

Build it and they will come…

Communicating on the move…

We value mobility above Quality

We value mobility above Price

Mobility is Personal

Text messaging is about Time Shifting

Data & text are more important than voice

Bandwidth is now the lubricant of our society

UK SMS Messages 99

0

50

100

150

200

250

300

Jan Feb MarAprMayJun Jul AugSep Oct NovDec

Millions

UK SMS Messages

Year 1

Year 2

3.5Bn

0.3Bn

UK SMS Messages

Year 2Year 1

Year 3

12Bn

3.5Bn

3G - A field of dreams…

Build it and will they come…again?Wire line qualitySeamless roamingMP3 Sound FilesMPEG Movie FilesJPEG Digital PhotosOn Line GamesIP TelephonyIP Video ConferenceIP Radio & TVGPS + TeleCare+++New Markets

Why did WAP fail?

Over-hypedOverdueUnder performed

-Slow-Limited web access-Nothing like a PC

Too complex to engineerToo complex to use

13

Disruptive Technologies

New TechnologyPer

form

ance

Time

Sustained technological improvements 3G>>2G

Performance customers

can absorb or utilize

Powerful mobile devices…

88 89 90 91 92 93 94 95 96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04 05

Voice

Messaging

Internet

Java

M-Media

5 years

4 years

2 years

1year

Machines

0.5 year

More Mobile than fixed Messages the voice Net purchases than a PC

A small screen

is not aBIG SCREEN

Will 3G happen in the EU?

£> 60Bn = Licence fees> 60Bn = Infrastructure> 60Bn = Development >??Bn = Marketing & Sales

>200Bn = Total

Will 3G happen in the EU?

~ £400 per head of population> 10 years to break even> 18 months to first chip sets > 24 months to first sales> 48 months worst case

Mounting public pressure & changinggovernment position on masts & towers

Operator Options?

Merge companies, networks andoperations to offset costs

Load cost onto 2G service- More expensive handsets - More expensive calls- Reduce Quality of Service- Reduce customers services

Operator Options?

Merge companies, networks andoperations to offset costs

Load cost onto 2G service- More expensive handsets - More expensive calls- Reduce Quality of Service- Reduce customers services

Government Options?

Reset the clockGive the money back

A once vibrant sector has been raped and may never be the same again

Banks may begin to foreclose on Mounting debts

The Only Realistic Option?

Use 3G to wipe out the last/first mile

1mm 10cm 10m 1km 1000km

1cm 1m 100m 10km 10000km

Chipto

Chip

Boardto

BoardBackplanes

Network TypesCopper, Fibre, Radio, Optical - Static - Mobile

LANs WANs MANs

LongHaul

Spatial Density Spectral Density

Everything is moving toward IP based operations

3G Threats & Limitations??

Technology options frozen too early- Not IP based- CDMA is band-limited - 2.5G can deliver almost as much- 4G coming faster than expected- Parasitic networks are far superior

Yearly Productivity

0

20

70

40

100

60

80

BW

Chip

SW

Qu

anti

ty/U

nit

Tim

e

InfrastructureWireless WWW

Content / Apps

Devices

150% pa

350% pa

Carrier’s the

bottleneck

35% pa

The key constraint?

1T

1G

1M

1K

1

Extrapolation from 1950s

1947 1957 1967 1977 1987 1997 2007

Backbone

RAM

Clock

Last/First Mile

HD

100Mbit/sLAN

11Mbit/sWLAN

2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s

MStream Cable PSTN ADSL Mobile

Office

&

Home

NetworkAlways On Dial Up

100,000MByte

1000MHz

LAN100

Mbit/s11Mbit/s

HardDrives Clock

WLAN MStream Cable PSTN ADSL Mobile

2Mbit/s 0.5Mbit/s 56kbit/s 256kbit/s 9.6kbit/s

Office

&

Home

Network

Net Access

96 97 98 99 00 01 02 03 04

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

0.0

1.6

1.4

1.2

Mobile phones

Mobile PhonesWith web access

PCs

Wired phones

Bn

If Telco's sold cars…

Will the Telco/Cable Co’s Deliver?

NOThey just don’t get it!They just don’t have it!They don’t want to do it!They don’t have to do it!They can’t do it anyway!!

Wrong infrastructureWrong mindsetMounting debts

Have we been here before?

YES

Have we been here before?

YESCommunity Antenna TV ABC don’t do terminals ABC don’t do support ABC don’t do delivery ABC don’t do networks

Parasitic Nets - 802.11 et al

Who needs a Telco or Cableco?

PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!

PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!

PARASITIC NETWORKSZero infrastructure!

PARASITIC NETWORKSWith mobile base stations!

Deviceto

Device

As today

PARASITIC NETWORKSNew modes!

DeviceRepeater

DeviceBroadcast

Wireless - the story so far…

1930 1940 1950 1960 1970 1980 1990 2000

30 MHz

300MHz

3GHz

30GHz

300GHz

3000GHz

Short wave radio

Black & White TV

Experimental CommSatellite

ColourTV

Microwave Antenna

Walkie-Talkie

Marine Satellite

CellularPhone

MilitarySatellite

Low-EarthOrbit Satellite

BroadBandSatellite

Modern Shortwave

10 m

100m

1m

10 cm

1cm

1mm

0.1mm

FM

TV

Mobile

Optical

Op

por

tun

ity

Wireless Technologies

Radio

RegulatedSecure

Medium-long rangeNarrowband

MatureRadiation risk?

< 300GHz

Optical

UnregulatedVery secureShort rangeBroadbandImmature

No radiation risk> 50,000GHzSpectrum

Diffuse Optical

Cell

Broadband

Mobile

Secure

Opticaltransceiver

Network

Switch

TelCo/CableCo Defence

X

ISP

Mobile

Latency

• Network latency should be dominated by the speed-of-light delay

• Managed by tight integration of optical and electronic technologies, architectures, operating systems and programming

Minimising Latency

• provide abundant network bandwidth• strip out layers and protocols• minimise network crossings

- ideal: each ‘expedition’=1 crossing + return• introduce ‘information geography’ (location

and distance of information) as the key parameter in network architecture, operating systems and programming

processor memory

processor memory

processor memory

processor memory

Current architecture

Future-matched architecture

Telephone Network

Random Events + Hierarchy => Time + Frequency Aggregation => Economy=> Blocking/Freeze Out

Control - Total - Prescriptive=> Fixed Bandwidth=> Low Flexibility=> Extremely Reliable=> Reasonably Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Data

Internet

Bursty Events + No Hierarchy=> Time Aggregation => Economy=> Variable Latency

Control - Little=> Variable Bandwidth=> High Flexibility=> Flaky=> Infinitely Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Speech

Parasitic NetsBursty Events + No Hierarchy=> Time + Space Aggregation => Economy=> Huge Latency

Control - None=> Variable Bandwidth=> Infinite Flexibility=> Highly Reliable=> Highly Resilient=> Fundamentally Unsuited to Real Time

Hardware Software

NetworkApplications

Convergence??

I don’t think so….

Established Wisdom

Planet wide universal access??

Thank you,

cochrane.org.ukconceptlabs.net