the eu agricultural outlook for wine, olive ......fresh tomatoes processed fresh oranges oranges...

THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR WINE,

OLIVE OIL AND FRUIT AND VEGETABLES MARKETS

Session 6

Marijke Van SchagenUnit Analysis and Outlook,DG Agriculture and Rural Development, European Commission

SPECIALISED CROPS

INCREASING HEALTH, ENVIRONMENTAL AND CLIMATE CONCERNS.…

… AND ONGOING TRENDS

Snacking

Convenience

Experience

Price

Taste

Fashion

apple

peach

tomato

orange

0

10

20

30

40

50

2018* 2030

Processed Fruits & Vegetables EU per capita consumption

(kg)

...HALT DECLINE OF FRESH F&V CONSUMPTION AND PUSH JUICES DOWN

-1 kg

+0.5 kg

+0.1 kg-0.1 kg

-0.1 kg-0.2 kg

-2.2 kg

apple

peach

tomato

orange

0

10

20

30

40

50

2018* 2030

Fresh Fruits & Vegetables EU per capita consumption

(kg)

-0.1 kg

*Given the high variability of production, projections are compared to the 5-year trimmed average

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How much wine per capita will be consumed in the EU in 2030?1. Less than 10 litres 2. Between 10 and 20 litres3. Between 20 and 30 litres4. Between 30 and 40 litres

LESS WINE CONSUMED IN THE EU

0

2

4

6

8

10

producingMS

other

EU olive oil consumption

(kg per capita)

2018 2030

0

5

10

15

20

25

2018 2030

EU wine consumption (litres per capita )

-1.2 litres +0.1 kg

*Given the high variability of production, projections are compared to the 5-year trimmed average

WORLD DEMAND FAVOURS EU EXPORT GROWTH

-20

-10

0

10

20

30

Wine trade (million hectolitres)

*Given the high variability of production, projections are compared to the 5-year trimmed average

-150

0

150

300

450

600

750

900

Olive oil trade(1 000 tonnes)

20302018

20182030

-4

-3

-2

-1

0

1

2

3

Fruit and vegetables trade (million tonnes)

2030

2018

fresh apples processed apples

freshtomatoes

processed tomatoes

fresh oranges

processed oranges

20302018

expo

rtim

portexpo

rtim

port

expo

rtim

port

-0.6%

-0.3%

0.0%

0.3%

0.6%

0.9%

1.2%

olive oil tomatoes apples oranges Peachesand

nectarines

wine

Annual growth in EU production 2018-2030

PRODUCTION SYSTEMS CONTINUE ADAPTING

New and re-planted areas

Irrigation systems

Intensification New varieties

Early harvest

Modernisation

Organic production

THANK YOU !#AgriOutlook

© European Union, 2019 │ © fotoVoyager, #165807391-170054274-453281653-508212549-537698055, iStockPhoto.com

THE EU AGRICULTURAL OUTLOOK FOR WINE,

OLIVE OIL AND FRUIT AND VEGETABLES MARKETS

Session 6