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tepav The Economic Policy Research Foundation of Turkey
Ussal Sahbaz
Dhaka, June 26, 2013
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
Framework
Why does connecting to SSWA matter for Turkish economy?
Transformation of Turkish economy
Shifting trade patterns
Role of transport connectivity
Turkish view: Big picture of transport corridors
Connections to South & Southwest
Connections to Central Asia & China
Connections to inland Europe
The way forward
Pillars of a new transport development approach
Institutional structures for international transport corridors
Concluding remarks
Slide 2 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
EUROPE
ASIA
High Growth Low Export Growth
Low Growth High Export Growth
Low Growth Low Export Growth
High Growth High Export Growth
Source: World Development Indicators
Does connectivity matter?
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 3
Turkey’s adjustment is mostly through markets not products
Transforming into:
High-growth products
Low-growth markets
Contribution of Geographic adaptation to
World market share change, %, 2000-2010
Source: BACI
dataset, Memedovic
ve Iapadre (2009),
TEPAV calculations
Co
ntr
ibu
tio
n o
f S
ecto
ral
ad
ap
tati
on
to
Wo
rld
mark
et
sh
are
ch
an
ge,
%,
2000
-20
10
Transforming into:
High-growth products
High-growth markets
Transforming into:
Low-growth products
High-growth markets
Transforming into:
Low-growth products
Low-growth markets
Decompositon of the change in world market share,
geographic vs. sectoral adaptation, 2000-2010, %
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 4
So far, MENA markets compensated the loss in the EU; sustainining this will get increasingly hard, ..
Source: Turkstat and TEPAV Calculations
56.4% 56.3% 48.0% 46.0% 46.3% 46.2%
38.2%
13.2% 17.8% 23.7% 26.1% 26.6% 25.7%
35.3%
30.4% 25.9% 28.3% 27.9% 27.1% 28.1% 26.6%
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
2000 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
Others
MENA
EU-27
Share of geographic regions in Turkey’s exports
Slide 5 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
18%
13%17%
7%
44%
100
4%
33%
33%
100
Resource Based
Primary Products 19%
1991 2001 2011
High Tech
Medium Tech
Low Tech
3%
14%
46%
100
25%
12% 13%
Technological breakdown of Turkey’s total exports,
2000-2005-2010, %
..which makes new markets for mid-tech products essential
Source: UN COMTRADE,
TEPAV Calculations
Slide 6
7 %
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
Where does Turkey’s trade with SSWA stand?
Share of Turkey’s exports in the imports of main regions
2000-2005-2010, %
Source: UN COMTRADE,
TEPAV Calculations
Slide 7
0.5
0.10.2
0.7
1.7
0.7
0.10.3
1.1
2.9
1.0
0.10.2
1.1
4.0
MENA EU N. America E. Asia SSWA
2000
2005
2010
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
A more focused view to Turkey’s trade to SSWA trade shows that the potential is huge
Share of Turkey’s exports in the imports of SSWA countries
2000-2005-2010, %
Source: UN COMTRADE,
TEPAV Calculations
Slide 8
0.2
0.9
0.20.1
1.6
0.1
0.4
1.8
0.5
0.8
0.3
2.3
0.2
0.8
3.1
0.3
0.6
0.2
0.7
4.6
0.20.0
0.7
2.6
Iran India Bhutan
0,3
Bangladesh Afghanistan Maldives Nepal Pakistan Sri Lanka
2005
2000
2010
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
Istanbul
Frankfurt
Islamabad
Tehran
Dhakka
Mumbai
How would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi or Mumbai?
Karachi
Container train railroad
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 9
Istanbul
Frankfurt
Islamabad
Tehran
Dhakka
Mumbai
How would you ship your cargo from Istanbul to Karachi or Mumbai?
via Rotterdam
Karachi
Container train railroad
Shipping liner service
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 10
Railroads have negligible share as a mode for Turkey’s exports
Slide 11
Turkey’s exports according to transport modes, %
10112210001 1 67876578 66714
374042
394141434343464243 33
555146504950484949475047 51
2003 2004 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012
1 1 1 0 1 1 1 2 1 1 1 2 1 1 2 1
2000 2001 2002
Rail
Maritime
Ground
Air
Kaynak: TÜİK, TEPAV hesaplamaları
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
UZBEKISTAN
TAJIKISTAN
KYRGYZSTAN
KAZAKHSTAN
TURKMENISTAN
AFGHANISTAN
IRAN
PAKISTAN
TURKEY AZERBAIJAN
ARMENIA
GERORGIA
RUSSIA
INDIA
IRAQ
SYRIA
LEBANON
ISRAEL
SAUDI ARABIA
Tahran
Ankara
Quetta Zahedan
Kerman
Tebriz Malatya Kayseri
Taftan
Esfehan
İstanbul
Islamabad
Istanbul – Tehran - Islamabad Train Project
Zahedan
Railway conversion Taftan
Customs
Kapıköy
Customs
Van Lake
Ferry
Taftan – Quetta
Old rails
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 12
istanbul
Frankfurt
Moscow
Helsinki
Baku
Xinjiang
Beijing
Big Picture: Modern Silk Road
Turkmenbashi
Aktau
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 13
istanbul
Frankfurt
Dhaka
Mumbai
Moscow
Helsinki
Baku
Xinjiang
Beijing
Conflicts over the Modern Silk Road
Islamabad
Turkmenbashi
Aktau
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 14
Current
railways
Required railway construction
Baku
Kirkovan
Delican
Corridor 1: Kirkovan – Delican - Baku
Corridor 2: Kars – Nakhcivan - Baku
Nakhcivan
Erivan
A Focus on the Caucasia: East - West
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 15
Innovative approaches: 2010 Afghan – Pakistan Transit Trade Agreement (one way corridor from Afghanistan to India)
Slide 16 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
istanbul
Frankfurt
Dhaka
Mumbai
Moscow
Helsinki
Baku
Xinjiang
Beijing
Recent conflict in Syria brought further obstacles
Islamabad
Turkmenbashi
Aktau
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 17
Slide 18 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
Slide 19 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
The connectivity matters for the market orientation: The case of inland v. Coastal Turkey
Europe,
24%
MENA,
60%
Asia;
8%
Other;
8%
Europe,
51%
MENA;
10%
Asia,
27%
Other,
12%
Europe, 78%
MENA,
12%
Asia, 4%
Source: TURKSTAT
Asia
7%
Europe
33%
MENA
44%
Other
16%
Bursa USD 11.2 billion
İstanbul USD 51 billion
Kocaeli USD 10 billion
Konya USD 1 billion
Gaziantep USD 3.6 billion Asia
8%
Europe 61%
MENA
18%
other
13%
İzmir USD 6.6 billion
Asia
11%
Europe
39% MENA 33%
Other
17%
Kayseri USD 1.1 billion
Slide 20 Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA
BALO will start twice a week block trains from Edirne to Munich on August 16, 2013
Land
Duration:5-6 days;
Cost: 3,100 €
Rail
Duration: 8-9 days;
Cost: 2,367 €
RoRo + Land
Duration: 8 days; Cost: 2750 €
Germany
(Koln)
Mersin
Gaziantep
Source: ecotransit, googleearth, TEPAV Calculations
Sea
Duration: 14-16
days; Cost: 2,055 €
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 21
Pillars of a new transport development approach
Transport Corridors matter
A corridor is as weak as its weakest link
Weakest links can occur at border crossings, inter-model ports, or conflict zones
Private sector should be engaged at the outset
“Build and they will come” does not work
Private sector information matters a lot for the design of the projects
Beyond a “project list”
Assessing bottlenecks
Prioritizing projects
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 22
Institutional structures for development of transport corridors
Internal mechanisms Liberalization of the Turkish railroad market (brand new)
Inter-agency dialogue on transport policy: Min of Foreign Affairs, Min of Economy, Min of Transport (informal)
Public – private partnerships at border gates: IRU’s TIR-EPD pilot (TOMORROW’S PANEL)
Bilateral and multilateral mechanisms TIR and COTIF conventions
Quotas for trucks: Problem for the EU market
Utilizing multilateral platforms for enhancing quotes: example of BSEC
Relevant international platforms UNESCAP – SSWA Transport Connectivity
Infrastructure chapter of the Istanbul Process for Afghanistan
ECO committees
Ad hoc mechanisms
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 23
Conclusions Regional integration through developing new rail /
road transport corridors ought to be a policy priority for Turkey
SSWA is a key part of the big picture in Asia
Corridor development in this region requires innovative approaches, supported by the private sector
Utilizing bilateral and multilateral platforms
Bringing (conflicting) parties together
Resolving coordination failures
Role for US policy in the region:TransAtlantic nature
Inclusive governance
Market based policy reforms
Connectivity enhancing transport infrastructure
Transport Connectivity: Turkey in the SSWA Slide 24
BITTI
Connectivity in the Mediterranean Slide 25
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