tailored analytics steven eldred director orange county css

Tailored Analytics

Steven EldredDirector

Orange County CSS

Objectives

Analytics in Orange County■ Vision■ iScore■ Predictions/ Level of Care■ What Makes iScore Different?■ How iScore Fits into the Process■ Methodology■ Model Trend Examples■ Success

Vision

“Social Good is Always Significant”

■ CSE 20/20: Family Wellbeing and Parental Success✷ Vision of CSE 20/20✷ Caseworkers✷ Community Partners✷ iScore

■ Drivers✷ Data-driven approach (mostly)✷ Balanced with professional expertise✷ Broad view of Customer needs✷ Focus on individual✷ Preventative and Proactive

Assume Goodwill

■Parents want to participate in their child’s life

■Parents want to support their children

■To a significant extent, past program policies have alienated and discouraged parents

Lessons From Other Fields

Ernesto Sirolli began his adult life working for non-governmental organizations (NGO’s) in Africa, helping people in developing nations.

For the last 30 years he has assisted entrepreneurs with micro-financing and development projects in Australia and around the world.

[video]

Assume Goodwill

■“The most important thing is passion. . . The passion that a man has for his own personal growth is the most important thing.”

■“I do something very different – I shut up and listen to them.”

■“You have to figure out how to get these people to come and talk to you.”

iScore in a Nutshell

Predicts long-term family wellbeing

Highlights areas of opportunity

Explores “what if” scenarios

Gives conceptual framework for care

Methodology

■Motivated by needs of our families

Individual and Case level

■Relied on years of prior OC research

Guideline and Barriers Study Date of Event Survey Community Resource Center Survey Research in other fields

■Inspired by caseworkers process Easy-to-use and interactive Quick but thorough assessments

Methodology – Data Sample

■Focused on making data usable Included Data Repository & CS1257 Analytical File (one record per case/over 400

variables) 30,000 cases sample size Financial data Outside data

■Recalibrate Model Family Wellbeing is defined by:• NCP ability to pay• NCP motivation• CP need for support• Socioeconomic Factors

iScore

✷ Level of Care✷ Attributes✷ What if

Scenarios✷ Areas of

Opportunities

Predictions / Level of Care

What Makes iScore Different

How Does iScore Fit Into the Process

iScore

Model Trend Examples

75%

33% 30%

1%

Seedling Sapling Young Mature

Unemployed

$16,598

$7,896

$1,563 $26

Seedling Sapling Young Mature

Median Arrears Amount

44%

21%18%

12%

Seedling Sapling Young Mature

Median ROTW(Ratio of Order to Wage)

35%

20%

13%

4%

Seedling Sapling Young Mature

Criminal History

Success

Predictions are accurate

Caseworkers use tool regularly

Makes positive impact on families

Success

Family Wellbeing & Parental Success:

Caseworker Community Partners iScore

Steven Eldred

SEldred@css.ocgov.com

714-347-8115