supreme flour world wheat presentation february 2014

WORLD WHEAT

Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.org/

The World Wheat Market

Year

Production

Consumption

Surplus (shortfall)

11/1212/1313/14

697 656 712

697 679 704

0 -23 8

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World Production and Use

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World Ending Stocks

0 4Historical Five Major Exporters include U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, and EU-27.Black Sea includes Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan.

World wheat supply & demand

Date 11/12 12/13 13/14

Supply

Trade

Demand

Endingstocks

199 199 176

697 656 712

896 855 888

158 137 159

550 543 569

147 136 135

697 679 704

199 176 184

Exports/imports

Beginning stockProductionSupply total

Food & seedFeed & residualUse tool

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Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio

0 6*Ending stocks

Global Ending Stocks and Price

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Supplies in Top Exporting Countries*

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International Wheat Factors

 Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 8.5% from last season, +56 million tons.

Approximately 19.2% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and resultantly the Chicago corn / wheat spread has narrowed and is currently US$1.52 / buschel.

Canadian production up by 38% from 2012/13 to a record 37.5 MMT but US production down 6% to 58 MMT

Black Sea production has rebounded to 105 MMT from 77.5 MMT in 2012/13 with exports expected to be 33% higher.

Argentine exports to fall 15% to 3 MMT vs. 5-year average of 7.57 MMT 

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Canada Situation

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Black Sea Exports

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U.S. Situation

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Date

Opening stock

Production

Imports

489

Consumption

Exports

Closing stock

1795

1650*

3197

180

557

13/14*

Supply & demand of wheat in South Africa (‘000 tons)

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Local Wheat Drivers

 Limited small crop – 1,795 million tons (need to import 45% of requirement) = import parity driven

With record world crop produced, fairly good export competition keeping a lid on prices (quality milling wheat less abundant).

Single largest driver of local prices is the weak currency (Rand).

Another important driver is the pace of actual imports i.e. by 14 Feb 2014 – 760 310 tons imported vs. imports needed to date to balance supply = 618 750 tons.

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