supreme flour world wheat presentation (december 2013)
DESCRIPTION
A presentation on the financial position of Wheat around the world (as of December 2013) Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on their website: http://www.uswheat.orgTRANSCRIPT
WORLD WHEAT Source: US Wheat Associates monthly supply and demand report, found on
their website: http://www.uswheat.org/
The World Wheat Market
Year
Production
Consumption
Surplus (shortfall)
11/12 12/13 13/14
698 655 706
697 679 703
1 -24 3
0 2
World Production and Use
0 3
Supplies in Top Exporting
Countries*
0 4 *Includes U.S., Canada, Australia, Argentina, EU-27, Russia, Ukraine and Kazakhstan
World wheat supply & demand
Date 11/12 12/13 13/14
Supply
Trade
Demand
Ending
stocks
199 199 176
698 655 706
896 855 882
158 138 154
550 543 564
147 136 139
697 679 703
199 176 178
Exports/imports
Beginning stock Production Supply total
Food & seed Feed & residual Use tool
0 5
Global Stocks* -to-Use Ratio
0 6 *Ending stocks
Global Ending Stocks and Price
0 7
Black Sea Exports
0 8
International Wheat Factors
Record 2013/14 world wheat crop – increase of 7.8% from last season, +51
million tons.
Approximately 20% of all wheat globally goes into the feed market and with
the Chicago corn / wheat spread at US$2.30 / buschel - battle.
In spite of problems in South America (frost in Brazil and smaller plantings in
Argentina) – not bullish internationally (Canada and Australia – larger crops).
New season Northern Hemisphere – US / Black Sea / EU plantings look good
– start harvest in June 2014
0 9
U.S. Situation
0 10
Argentina Situation
0 11
Canada Situation
0 12
Date
Opening stock
Production
Imports
489
Consumption
Exports
Closing stock
1752
1600*
3040
280
521
13/14*
Supply & demand of wheat
in South Africa (‘000 tons)
0 13
Local Wheat Drivers
With small local crop, we will trade inland import parity
Currently local wheat well priced versus imports (R / US$), +- R100 / ton at
R10.20 / US$
Western Cape quality concern – at least 100 000 tons lost to feed (S&D)
Still some unsold Black Sea wheat stored in silos / more coming in Dec / Jan
0 14
Local Prices
0 15
2900
2850
2800
2750
2700
2650