stress, fear, and panic: decision-making in dynamic, high-risk environments marc lusk amarillo fire...

Stress, Fear, and Panic:Decision-Making in Dynamic,

High-Risk Environments

Marc Lusk

Amarillo Fire Department

“… a better understanding

of how

stress, fear, and panic

combine to erode rational thinking” - Putnam

Presentation Goal:

The Precipitation:

“The reality of our [fire service] culture

is very simple…

we hire aggressive firefighters…”

- Kreis

“I knew I was in trouble.

I thought

about using my radio,

but I thought,

I found my way in;

I can find my way out.”- Hospitalized Seattle Firefighter

“…numerous people who were not moving

and were still watching the stage”

- Interviewed Survivor

Civilian Reactions:

Station Nightclub Fire

:54 seconds -

Cameraman leaves Lobby

Wildland FF Reactions:

“…the twelve firefighters

did not at first hike

at maximum speed….

everyone failed to recognize

early enough

the danger of the situation.”- Maclean

Factors Affecting Decisions:

1. Risk perception

2. Stressors

3. Cognitive Biases

4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)

5. Experience

Risk Propensity:

Self-control

Danger-seeking

Energy

Impulsiveness

Invincibility

Risk Perception :

“Each decision maker has…

a unique set

of resulting behaviors”

- Williams

900 ft.

Risk Perception :Invincibility -

A Wonderful Thing

“… keep a 2-mile

"buffer zone"

between you and

the storm.”- NWS

Risk Perception :

How many

telephone posts

are there in two

miles?

Risk Perception :

1. Commercial Pilots: 27% of accidents

2. Ambulance Drivers: Black boxes

3. Firefighters: More frequent and severe injuries

Violations Will Occur:

Risk vs. Policy:

Factors Affecting Decisions:

1. Risk perception

2. Stressors

3. Cognitive Biases

4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)

5. Experience

1) Multiple Info Sources

2) Conflicting Info

Stressors:

http://sanderling.files.wordpress.com/2009/01/uss_vincennes2.jpg

USS Vincennes

3) Rapidly Evolving Situation

4) Time Pressure

5) Threat

Complex decisions

must be made despite

time pressure,

uncertainty,

external threat,

and physical hardships.

O’Fallon,

Illinois

1. Reduce opportunity to gather information

Police Officer: Shoot/No Shoot Situation

2. Disrupt working memory

My Mother-In-Law

3. Distract attention from the operational goals

A-10 and F-16 Mishaps

Stressors:

Stressors Affect Decisions:

Factors Affecting Decisions:

1. Risk perception

2. Stressors

3. Cognitive Biases

4. Affect Heuristics (Emotions)

5. Experience

Crowded rooms during Decision-Making

Presentations – The Exits

Airline Passengers – The Exits

Nuclear Power Plant Operators – Procedures

Availability Bias:

Recollection of Information:

Representativeness Bias:

Categorizing:Underground Miners

“… did not select the

most efficient strategy

- they chose further

information over

action”

Representativeness Bias:

Does a Near-miss

make a person

more cautious

or

less cautious

the next time?

Representativeness Bias:

Near-Misses:

Mars Rover Operators

“… categorized the

current [similar]

circumstances as being

survivable”

Anchor and Adjustment Bias:

Making an Initial Decision and Sticking To It :

Air Florida Flight 90

- 78 fatalities

Overconfidence Biases:

Illusory Optimism

Invulnerability

Illusion

Framing Bias:

1. Complacency

7 of 9 mishaps involving C-130 aircraft

2. Expectations

USS Vincennes – gunboat skirmishes

3. Commercial Pilots

Keeping schedules vs. pre-flight checklist

Firefighters Are Human Too:

“I knew I was in trouble.

I thought about using my radio,

but I thought, I found my way in;

I can find my way out.”- Seattle

Firefighter

Representativeness

Anchor and Adjustment

Illusory Optimism

Invulnerability Illusion

People Are Human Too:

Factors Affecting Decisions:

1. Risk perception

2. Stressors

3. Cognitive Biases

4. Emotions

5. Experience

Emotional Reactions:

1. Situations are felt to be Good or Bad

2. Denial

3. Anxiety

A generalized condition w/o direct trigger

4. Panic:

A sudden fear which dominates/replaces thinking

Physical Reactions:

1. Pupils dilate

2. Muscles tighten

3. Heart-rate/Breathing

increases

4. Blood is shunted

Oxygen/Nutrients

Heat (Perspiration)“Fight or Flight”

Response

Impairments:

1. Fine Motor Skills

2. Temporal Distortion

3. Memory Disruption

4. Channeled Attention

Emotional Reaction:

MS Estonia

“People lose their ability to make

decisions.

They turn into statues.”

- Sherwood

Emotions:

"I must not fear.

Fear is the mind-killer."

--- Frank Herbert, Dune

A Walk

in the

Woods

Fear and the Amygdala:

1. Thalamic Pathway The Low Road

2. Cortical Pathway The High Road

Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”

10% will react Rationally

Relatively Calm

Decision-making is sharp and focused

Able to prioritize, plan, and take action

Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”

80% will be “Stunned and Bewildered”

Behavior is mechanical, reflexive

Reasoning is significantly impaired

Perceptual narrowing (tunnel vision)

Leach’s “Theory of 10-80-10”

10% will react Inappropriately:

Loss of behavioral control

Decision-making is counterproductive

Factors Affecting Decisions:

1. Risk perception

2. Stressors

3. Cognitive Biases

4. Emotions

5. Experience

Recognition-Primed Decision-Making:

1. Naturalistic

2. Efficiency

3. Trigger points

4. Reduces

cognitive load

Recognition-Primed Decision-Making:

The Problem is -

How many times

do we experience

a true emergency?Kevin Green/News-Journal Photo

Flipping the Switch:

Theory of 10/80/10:

Most will be stunned

Temporary effect

Seek calmness

Plan for emergencies

Experience:

Novices have difficulty gathering, integrating, and

understanding informational cues

Improves knowledge of performance needed

Develops a better understanding of how stressors,

biases, and emotions impact decisions

Education:

“You rarely get someone

to jump a skill level

by teaching more facts and rules….

we cannot expect to grow

instant experts ”

- Williams

Training:

“familiarity with the criterion environment….effective task performanceunder stress conditions”

- Driskell and Johnston

Experience:

Variety of experience

is more important

than simple years of service.

Mentoring:

“to enhance the

development of

perceptual expertise

in the trainees” - Klein

Train Your Mentors:

Leadership:

“…individuals respond well

to a leader, however, if leadership is lacking,people tend to become

confused.”

- Kowalski-Trakofler and Vaught.MS Estonia

Risk perception can be modified,

Stressors can be mitigated,

Biases can be minimized,

Emotions can be mastered.

Training and Experience:

Questions?

Your Turn: