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Strategic Success Factors in Counter- Insurgency Campaigns:With Discussion of the Modelling Approach
Dstl/CP23836/1.2 (ORS10)Presentation to ORS Defence Special Interest Group, 24 Feb 2010
Dr Andrew HossackDstl Policy & Capability Studies Dept
© Crown Copyright 2010
© Dstl 2010
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2
Before I Start…
• This is a recycled presentation:
– Most of it has been previously presented at:
• Cornwallis XII, Nova Scotia, Apr 07 (CP23836) (Best Paper)• UCSD IGCC CT Conference, San Diego, May 07 (CP24670)• MORS IW Workshop, Monterey, Dec 07 07 (CP26591)• Etc…
– The central research is (mostly) published in the Cornwallis XII Proceedings
– The background terms, definitions, scope etc are published in the Cornwallis X Proceedings similarly
• My apologies to anyone who has heard this all before…
…Please feel free to doze quietly for the next 40-60 minutes!
Recycled Presentation!
Background to this Presentation
© Dstl 2010
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4
The Overall COIN Research Study
• FYs05-07: An ongoing multi-year research programme into Counter-Terrorist/Counter-insurgency (CT/COIN) campaigns:
– Building upon previous HA studies of CT, stabilisation etc
– Undertaken to inform development of PSO/OOTW models by Dstl etc
– Phase I (Aug 04 – Jul 05): Identify generic BLUE success factors
– Phase II (Aug 05 – Sep 06): Identify generic RED success factors
– Phase IIIA (Oct 06 – Mar 07): Initial Study of Campaign Evolution
• A possible Phase IIIB (analysis of the strategic dynamics within campaigns) has not yet been agreed
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Previous Historical Analysis of OOTW
• This work builds upon a number of prior HA OOTW studies:
– Operations Other Than War (OOTW) Study (1999 - 2001)
• tactical analyses of patrols, ambushes etc in 8 COIN campaigns – Counter-Terrorism (CT) Strategies “Fastball” (2001)
– Counter-Terrorism Overseas (CTO) Study (2002 - 2004) *
• Focused on structure, attributes of “International Terrorist” groups– Iraq Campaign Assessment I (Nov 2003) *
– Stabilisation Operations Study (2004)
• Identified success factors for external stabilisation of states
*Key results included in Cornwallis IX presentation
Review of Analysis Methodology
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Study Approach
• Undertaken as a “historical analysis” (HA) study, i.e.
• Historical Analysis:
– Is operational analysis of quantified data describing the actual behaviour of systems across a wide range of historical cases
– Is empirical, statistical and holistic
– Involves the testing of hypotheses using established statistical techniques
– Focuses on understanding the enduring, underlying mechanisms of conflict
– Is about the “analysis of real operations” …..ongoing, recent and historical!
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The Spectrum of Conflict
“Conflict Intensity” (Level of Violence)
(Counter)-Insurgency
Civil War
Limited War
Theatre War
Global War
Humanitarian Relief Ops
Strikes & Raids
(Counter)-Terrorism
Peace Enforcement
Disaster Relief
Peacekeeping/ Enforcement
(Counter)-Terrorism
(Counter)-Insurgency
Civil War
Show of Force
General War
Regional Conflict
Low Intensity Conflict
Mid Intensity Conflict
High Intensity Conflict
Peacetime & Crisis
Symmetric (conventional) conflictNon-Conflict
Asymmetric (unconventional) conflict
Scope of CT/COIN Study
US:
UK:
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Study Scope• Counter-Terrorism (CT) & Counter-Insurgency (COIN)
assumed to represent adjacent & overlapping regions of some spectrum of “asymmetric conflict”
• No a priori distinction made between major terrorist & minor insurgent campaigns
• Boundary Issues: – Micro/Urban Terrorist Campaigns excluded (E.g.: November 17) – Genuine “Civil Wars” excluded (E.g.: Chinese Communists)
0%
20%
40%
60%
80%
100%
0.0001 0.01 1 100
(Terrorists/Insurgents + Sympathisers) per 1,000 Popn
Cu
mu
lati
ve
Fre
qu
en
cy
"Insurgent" Campaigns
"Terrorist" Campaigns
Iraq 2003 (Estimate) c. 1.2 Terrorists/Sympathisers per 1,000 Popn
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Terrorism & Insurgency (1)
• “Terrorist”, “Terrorism” are emotive words, open to multiple (mis-) interpretations and abuse
• “Terrorist” typically used to refer to groups that predominantly use terrorism tactics……e.g.:
– bombings
– shootings
– assassinations
• …but identical tactics also often present in “insurgency” campaigns as well to lesser degree
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Terrorism & Insurgency (2)
• UK / NATO doctrine defines “terrorism” to be:
“…..the unlawful use or threatened use of violence against individuals in an attempt to coerce or intimidate governments or societies to achieve
political, religious or ideological objectives”
• UK / NATO doctrine defines “insurgency” to be:
“….an organised movement aimed at the overthrow of a constituted government through the use of subversion and armed conflict”
• Only terrorism by Non-State actors against the State is considered in this study
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Study Definition
CT/COIN Campaign
Any extended, essentially two-sided, asymmetric conflict in which some non-state player largely within a (possibly de facto) state
attempts to force some change in either the nature and/or leadership of said state predominantly through some mixture of
terrorist and/or insurgent tactics.
As defined from UK / NATO terminology!
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Conceptual Model of Campaign
State in Conflict (SiC)
Area of Conflict Location (ACL)
Neighbouring StateNeighbouring State
Neighbouring State
Terrorist / Insurgent
Group (TIG)
State Security Forces (SyF)
External Intervening State
(EIS)
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Examples of Campaign Structure
Years ExternalIntervening State
State in Conflict Area of ConflictLocation
Terrorist /Insurgent Group
1941 - 1945 N/R German 3rd
ReichFormer Kingdom
of YugoslaviaYugoslavPartisans
1955 - 1960 UK Crown Colonyof Cyprus
Crown Colony ofCyprus
EOKA
1954 - 1962 France Department ofAlgeria
Department ofAlgeria
ALN
1965 - 1972 USA Republic ofVietnam
Republic ofVietnam
Viet Cong
1969 - 1994 N/R UK Northern Ireland PIRA
1975 - 1999 N/R Indonesia E Timor FALANTIL
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Outline of Analysis Method
• C. 100 possible success factors identified and tested for statistically significant association with campaign outcome:
– FY05: c. 40 possible SyF success factors tested
– FY06: c. 60 possible Insurgent success factors tested
• Assessment criteria for ordered categories defined for each factor:
– Category “-1 ”: “Poor, incompetent or no usage/presence”
– Category “ 0 ”: “Moderate, mixed or occasional usage/presence”
– Category “+1”: “Good, competent or extensive usage/presence”
• Assessment criteria, categories for outcome measures defined similarly
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Coding of Success Factors
Field Title Flexibility of Security Forces C2 Degradation of Key State Economic Sectors
Field Type Security Forces Capability Insurgent Tactic
Field Value
-1
The Security Forces were unresponsive, inflexible and incapable of either
achieving surprise in planned operations or of exploiting targets of opportunity.
The Insurgents did not significantly seek to destroy or seriously degrade
any part of the State’s economy
0
The Security Forces had limited responsiveness and flexibility and were sometimes able to act sufficiently rapidly
to achieve surprise in planned operations or to exploit targets of
opportunity
The Insurgents occasionally or inconsistently sought to destroy or
seriously degrade key sectors of the State’s economy
1
The Security Forces were responsive, flexible, capable of planning
innovatatively and of acting rapidly to achieve tactical/operational surprise or
to exploit targets of opportunity
The Insurgents constantly and consistently sought to destroy or
seriously degrade key sectors of the State’s economy
• Factors judged on 3 point ordinal scale:
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Outcome Measures Used• Two types of campaign success considered:
– Military Success (judged on achievement of monopoly of violence)
– Political Success (judged on achievement of initial objectives)
• Military Success assumed zero-sum a priori: – ‘(State) Success’ State monopoly of violence at end campaign
– ‘(State) Partial Success’ Both State & Insurgents retain capacity for violence
– ‘(State) Failure’ Insurgent monopoly of violence at end campaign
• Political Success coded independently for all Actors (Internal State, External State, Insurgents):
– ‘Success’ Most initial objectives achieved at end campaign
– ‘Partial Success’ Some initial objectives achieved at end campaign
– ‘Failure’ Few initial objectives achieved at end campaign
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Data Collection & Coding
• Data for 44 COIN campaigns collected & categorised by external researchers
– FY05: Data collected on overall campaign, context, SyF factors etc
– FY06: Additional data on Insurgent & social factors only
• Case selection was pseudo-random:– Stratified sampling across geographic regions
– Spread over post WWI-period
• Each data point currently represents an entire campaign:
– Static analysis only; takes no account of development of campaign over time
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Statistical Analysis
• Candidate success factors tested for association with success using Somers’ D statistic at 90% confidence
• Essentially assessing distributions of data in 3 x 3 Contingency Tables:
“Is there a tendency for better (or worse) values of variable X to be
consistently paired with better (or worse) campaign outcomes?
Analysis Results (1):(Attritional) Efficiency of SyF, Insurgents
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Efficiency of SyF & TIG
0.1
"Force Ratio“ (Ratio of Median Annual Forces)
“Eff
icie
nc
y”
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1 10 100
Security Forces
Terrorists/Insurgents
• Plot shows efficiency of each combatant vs Force Ratio: – Efficiency: No. Opponents killed per 1,000 Man-Years force deployed
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Efficiency of SyF & TIG
0.1
"Force Ratio“ (Ratio of Median Annual Forces)
“Eff
icie
nc
y”
y = 56.5x-0.9
R 2 = 0.4
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1 10 100
Security Forces
Terrorists/Insurgents
• SyF efficiency decreases significantly with increasing FR – Each additional soldier/policeman adds less than the one before
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Efficiency of SyF & TIG
0.1
"Force Ratio“ (Ratio of Median Annual Forces)
“Eff
icie
nc
y”
y = 19.0x0.3
R 2 = 0.1
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1 10 100
Security Forces
Terrorists/Insurgents
• No evidence that Insurgent efficiency changes with FR: – Each Insurgent is as efficient as the one before
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Efficiency of SyF & TIG
0.1
"Force Ratio“ (Ratio of Median Annual Forces)
“Eff
icie
nc
y”
y = 56.5x-0.9
R 2 = 0.4
y = 19.0x0.3
R 2 = 0.1
0.1
1
10
100
1000
10000
1 10 100
Security Forces
Terrorists/Insurgents
• Possibly this is because Insurgents are typically too small to experience effects of diminishing returns on scale?
Analysis Results (2):The relationship between Force Ratio & Campaign Outcome
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Force Ratio & Campaign Outcome (1)
• There is a weak relationship between odds of military campaign success and whole-campaign Force Ratio:
– Statistically significant at 93% confidence
– A conservative and reasonable result given expected “noise” in data
– Military success used because a zero-sum outcome
– Strictly, tested against the Ratio of Median Annual Forces (used as a surrogate approximation to Force Ratio)
• Can use ordinal logistic regression to estimate the rate of change of odds with change in Force Ratio
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Military Success
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.00
10.
01 0.1 1 10 10
010
00
1000
0
1000
0
1E+0
6
"Force Ratio" (Log Axis)
Ou
tco
me
pro
ba
bil
ity
SyF Failure
SyF Partial Success
SyF Success
Force Ratio & Campaign Outcome (2)
• Ordinal Logistic regression estimates that:– Odds(Win), Odds(Lose) change by x3 with each x10 change in FR– 90% Confidence that true rate of change is between x1+ - x8
x10 increase in FR
x3 increase in Equivalent Odds
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Force Ratio & Campaign Outcome (4)
• The Force Ratio-Outcome Model may provide:
– A basis for future development of a model incorporating key success factor values as well as Force Ratio
– A method of quantifying the value of changing outcome odds in terms of the change in Force Ratio required to give an equivalent effect
• That is, each x2 change in campaign odds is:
– Estimated to be equivalent to a x4 change in Force Ratio
– At least equivalent to a x2+ change in Force Ratio (90% confidence)
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Military Success
0%
10%
20%
30%
40%
50%
60%
70%
80%
90%
100%
0.00
10.
01 0.1 1 10 10
010
00
1000
0
1000
0
1E+0
6
"Force Ratio" (Log Axis)
Ou
tco
me
pro
ba
bil
ity
SyF Failure
SyF Partial Success
SyF Success
Force Ratio & Campaign Outcome (2)
• Each x2 (x4) change in campaign odds is:
– Estimated to be equivalent to a x4 (x16) change in Force Ratio
– At least equivalent to a x2+ (x4+) change in Force Ratio (90% confidence)
x16 Change in FR
x4 Change in Odds
Analysis Results (3):Generic Security Forces’ Success Factors
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SyF Success Factors (1)Magnitude of Estimated Equivalent Force Multiplier
Military Campaign Success for State & SyF
Political Campaign Success for State & SyF
x50 < FM- Pop Support for Conflict
- Pop Support for SyF
x20 < FM ≤ x50SyF Doctrine -
Pop Support for SyF -
x10 < FM ≤ x20
Pop Support for Conflict SyF Doctrine
SyF Training -
Flexibility of SyF C2 Targeting TIG Leadership (-)
x5 < FM ≤ x10
Resource Availability SyF Counter-Intelligence
SiC Legitimacy Winning “Hearts & Minds”
SyF Counter-Intelligence Flexibility of SyF C2
x1 < FM ≤ x5
Winning “Hearts & Minds” Overall SyF Intelligence
Overall SyF Intelligence State Legitimacy
SyF Strategic Posture Integration of SyF C2
Integration of SyF C2 Legal Status of Campaign
They only tell us the What? not the
How? (Context specific?)
These are the same factors that were reported to
Cornwallis X!
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SyF Success Factors (2)
• Generically, the factors most important to State military and political success in COIN at the campaign level are those concerned with:
– Wresting the campaign initiative away from the Insurgents:
• good Counter-Int; proactive Strategic Posture; Hearts & Minds
– The directed & precise application of Security Forces’ capability:
• flexible & integrated C2; good Int; good Training and Doctrine
– Creating/maintaining the necessary political context for success:
• Popular Support for Security Forces; Hearts & Minds; good Training and Doctrine
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SyF Success Factors (3)
• These generic, campaign level success factors include no factors relating to:
– Security Forces’ capability itself:
• Firepower, mobility, use of ‘Special Forces’ etc– the specific methods by which Security Forces’ capability is applied
against Insurgents
• degradation of infrastructure, direct attrition, control of population
• These factors may still be significant in specific contexts
• There is some requirement for boots-on-the-ground:
– force ratio advantage & resource availability
– Needed to avoid losing, but not in itself sufficient for winning?
Analysis Results (4):Generic Insurgents’ Success Factors
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Insurgent Success Factors (1)Magnitude of Estimated Equivalent Force Multiplier
Military Campaign Success for Insurgents
Political Campaign Success for Insurgents
x50 < FM Pop Support for Insurgentsx20 < FM ≤ x50 (Insurgent Doctrine) -
Pop Support for Insurgents -x10 < FM ≤ x20 Destruction of SyF (Insurgent Doctrine)
- Attempted Destruction of State Infrastructure
x5 < FM ≤ x10
Insurgent Firepower -Insurgent Counter-Intelligence -
Overextension of SyF -Overthrow State Leaders -
Insurgent Training Insurgent Experience (-)Legitimise Claim to Power Insurgent Internal Structure (-)
x1 < FM ≤ x5
Attract External Intervention Attempted Destruction of State Institutions (-)
Insurgent Concealment in Terrain -Subversion of Population Legitimise Claim to Power
Overall Insurgent Intelligence Subversion of Population
• CAVEAT: The Insurgent Doctrine Factor is unsafe – use with caution!
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Insurgent Success Factors (2)
• Proportionately fewer factors are identified as generically associated with success for Insurgents compared to SyF
• Is Insurgent success more context-specific than for SyF?
– Fewer generic “rules of thumb” for guidance?
• Emphasises need for SyF Int to “get inside Insurgents’ heads”?
• Or a reflection of reduced robustness of Insurgent data compared to SyF data?
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Insurgent Success Factors (3)
• Possibly 3 broad themes discernible among Insurgent Success Factors:
– Possession of favourable political context for success:• Having popular support;• establishing legitimacy of cause;• subverting population into detaching itself from the State
– Maintaining an Intelligence Superiority over SyF
– Possession of ‘kinetic’ military strength: • Firepower;• Trained insurgents;• Relevant Doctrine?
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Insurgent Success Factors (4)
• Firepower / kinetic military strength may be more important to Insurgents than to SyF
– Possession of heavy weapons firepower is a military success factor for Insurgents but not for SyF!
– Insurgents do not suffer diminishing returns on increasing forces
• Presumably because Insurgents are much smaller than SyF so gain greater benefit from improvement in military capability
• As much a hypothesis as an inference!
• Suggests the necessity of modelling both the military as well as the political component of CT/COIN!
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Insurgent Success Factors (5)
• Importance of military capability may explain some of the less immediately understandable Insurgent success factors:
– Insurgent Internal Structures (with hierarchical better than cellular)
– Destruction of SyF
– Overextension of SyF
– Overthrow of State Leadership
– Concealment within Terrain (but not within populations)
• These all require (relatively) large Insurgency size to be worth pursuing
• Or, they may be spurious results (“False Positives”)
Caveats on Results
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Caveats on these Results• Static, whole-campaign analysis:
– Effectively considers the average state of factors across geography and time
• Robustness of Insurgent factor design:
– Wide range of possible Insurgent strategies for different contexts / campaigns
– Hard to write generic definitions that cover 44 campaigns over 85 years!
– Problem of Intent vs Action (Threatening vs Actual Destruction etc…)
• Spurious or “False Positive” Results:
– An inherent limitation of inferential statistics!
– At 90% confidence, it is statistically likely that up to:
• 4 of the SyF “success factors” found for each outcome type
• 6 of the Insurgent “success factors” found for each outcome type
are false
Summary & Conclusions
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Conclusions on Success Factors
• The Political Component of CT/COIN: Popular support factors for Insurgents and SyF potentially offer some of the largest modifiers to campaign odds of success:
– Affecting both military and political campaign outcomes
– Up to twice as important to political as to military success
• The Military Component of CT/COIN: Although Force Ratio has a weaker effect upon campaign outcome than key SyF and Insurgent Success Factors:
– There is still some requirement for boots-on-the-ground
– SyF suffer diminishing returns on manpower at typical FRs
– Insurgents gain at least some benefit from numbers, training, firepower
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Conclusions on Research
• Method provides technique for quantifying the payoff from adopting given strategies / capabilities….if done appropriately
• Results demonstrate the necessity for modelling the military and the political components of CT/COIN together
– Endorses a Rational Expectations perspective of PSO/COIN
• There is potential for further exploitation of existing, static campaign data
• Further major research will require more detailed, campaign-phase resolution
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Any Questions?
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Published Research
• A HOSSACK. 2005. Historical Analysis of Terrorist Campaigns, with observations on Current Operations in Iraq (Dstl/CP10135). Published In: A WOODCOCK, G ROSE, eds., The Cornwallis Group IX: Analysis for Stabilization and Counter-Terrorist Operations (2004) pp 393 – 417.
• C IRWIN, A S MORLEY, 2005. Drawing lessons from the past. A historical analysis of stabilization operations. Royal United Services Institute (RUSI) Journal, Vol. 150 No. 1, February 2005, pp49 – 53
• A HOSSACK, K SIVASANKARAN. Success Factors in CT/COIN Campaigns: Preliminary Results arising from Current Research (Dstl/CP14230). Published In: A WOODCOCK and G ROSE, eds., The Cornwallis Group X: Analysis for New and Emerging Societal Conflicts (2005) pp 469 - 491.
• A HOSSACK. Security Force & Insurgent Success Factors in Counter-Insurgency Campaigns (Dstl/CP23836). Published In: A WOODCOCK and G ROSE, eds., The Cornwallis Group XII: Analysis for Multi-Agency Support (2008).
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Contact Details
Dr Andrew Hossack FORS CMath FIMA
Principal Analyst & Associate FellowHistorical and Operational Data Analysis (HODA) Team
Analysis, Experimentation & Simulation (AES) GroupPolicy & Capability Studies (PCS) Department
Defence Science & Technology Laboratory (Dstl)iSAT “K”, Rm C036, Grenville Bldg West Court,
Portsdown Hill Road, Fareham, HANTS PO17 6AD
Tel: +44(0) 2392 532889Fax: +44(0) 2392 533458
Email: adhossack<at>dstl.gov.uk[dstl] is part of the UK Ministry of Defence
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