status of and outlook for nuclear generation in the u.s
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Status of and Outlook for Nuclear Generation in the U.S.
Energy Bar Association Mid-Year Meeting
December 3, 2009
Scott SitzerU.S. Energy Information Administration
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U.S. Nuclear Status
• Currently 104 nuclear reactors at 65 power plants in 31 States.
• Nuclear is approximately 20 percent of all generation in the U.S.
• Last new nuclear plant to come on line was Watts Bar 1 (TVA) in TN in 1996.
• No new units have completed the application process since 1978.
Operable U.S. Nuclear Units, 1957-2008
Electricity Generation by Fuel Type - 2008
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Current Nuclear Developments
• License Applications for 27 New Reactors at 18 Sites Received by NRC, but Not All are Being Actively Pursued
• 3 new sites in Texas, Florida, and South Carolina being considered, all others on existing sites
• New nuclear production not expected until 2016 at the earliest
• One enrichment facility under construction in New Mexico; construction on a second in Ohio has been suspended; a third planned unit, in Idaho, is currently under regulatory review, and a fourth, using laser separation technology, is being considered for a site in North Carolina.
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Location of Potential New U.S. Nuclear Reactors
Factors Favoring Future Nuclear Development
• EPACT 2005 tax credits, loan guarantees, and insurance provisions
• Need for additional baseload generation in the future
• Zero-emission technology
Barriers to New Nuclear Development
• High capital costs
• Waste disposal issues
• Public perceptions
Capital Cost Assumptions for New Generating Capacity
Outlook
• EIA’s reference case projects increases for nuclear capacity of about 12 gigawatts net by 2030, assuming current laws and regulations.
• Total is made up of 3.4 gigawatts of expansion at existing plants, 13.1 gigawatts of new capacity, and 4.4 gigawatts of retirements.
• But other scenarios show more or less depending upon assumptions about costs, demand, and emissions policies.
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Source: Annual Energy Outlook 2009, U.S. Energy Information Administration
Nuclear Generating Capacity, 2007, 2020, and 2030 (gigawatts)
Waxman-Markey Analysis
• EIA analyzed the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009 (ACESA), the Waxman-Markey bill
• Analysis shows significant impacts on nuclear capacity and generation through 2030
• Results are dependent on assumptions concerning banking, international offsets, and the costs of low-emission technologies
Waxman-Markey Analysis (contd.)
• Under the Basic ACESA case, nuclear generating capacity is 195 gigawatts (up 77 percent from the reference case), and generation is 1548 billion Kwh in 2030.
• Under this scenario, nuclear would account for 35 percent of total generation in 2030, compared to 19 percent in the reference case projection.
• Along with renewables, nuclear would be the primary source of replacement generation for coal and natural gas.
Main cases in EIA’s analysis
Case Name Assumptions
BasicIntegrated analysis of all of the modeled provisions of ACESA.
Zero BankSame as Basic but no carryover of allowances beyond 2030. Proxy for major low- no-carbon energy technology breakthroughs with significant market impacts after 2030
High OffsetsSame as Basic but assumes increased use of international offsets.
High CostSame as Basic but assumes that nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass gasification costs are 50 % higher
No InternationalSame as Basic but assumes international offsets are too expensive or unable to meet the requirements for use
No International / Limited
Same as Basic but limits additions of nuclear, fossil with CCS and biomass to reference case levels. Also no international offsets.
EIA’s Projected Capacity Additions by Fuel, 2007-2030: ACESA Analysis
(thousand megawatts)
6935 39
125 4255 53 82 46
112
96
44 45
13581
119
93 95116
219
250
60410
100
200
300
400
500
600
Reference Basic Zero Bank High Offsets High Cost NoInternational
No Int /Limited
Renewable
Nuclear
Natural Gas with CCS
Natural Gas
Coal with CCS
Coal
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
EIA’s Projected Generation by Fuel in 2030:ACESA Analysis (billion Kilowatt-hours)
2021 2296
841
1650 1593 1281
100 285
015
513
262 304293
440 15
892976
636
708 713880
5921638
806
890
15481147 1151 923
1863890
352
798
1021979 987
9741399
1315
0
1,000
2,000
3,000
4,000
5,000
2007 Reference Basic Zero Bank HighOffsets
High Cost NoInterational
No Int /Limited
Coal Coal w /CCS Oil Natural Gas Natural Gas w /CCS Nuclear Renew able
Source: EIA Analysis of the American Clean Energy and Security Act of 2009
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Thank You for your Attention!For more information:
Energy Information Administration home pageww.eia.doe.gov
Short-Term Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/steo/pub/contents.html
Annual Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/aeo/index.html
International Energy Outlook www.eia.doe.gov/oiaf/ieo/index.html
Monthly Energy Review www.eia.doe.gov/emeu/mer/contents.html
U.S. Energy Information Administrationwww.eia.doe.gov
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