ssp process - joint global change research institute€¦ · ssp process detlef van vuuren, keywan...

1

SSP process Detlef van Vuuren, Keywan Riahi and many others.

WG3 Community:

WG1 community – : WG2 Community:

Common scenarios

Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic and development in

order to determine mitigation effort and

cost-benefits of climate change

Scenario provide insight into… plausible development of forcers and plausible climate futures

Scenarios provide insight into… socio-economic

development (vulnerability) and

climate change (impacts)

Scenarios play a key role in climate research

Adapted from Edmonds

RCPs

Climate SSPs

Scenarios as mean to link communities

Drivers (population

, GDP)

Energy use,

Land use Emissions

Conc./ forcing

Climate/ Environmental

change

Impact Exposed population, ability to adapt

Fo

rcin

g l

evel (W

/m

2)

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5 RCPs

Climate SSPs

Narratives Quantitative drivers

IAM reference scenario (e.g., SSP3-Ref)

IAM SSP-RCP scenario (e.g., SSP3-4.5)

The Scenario Matrix Architecture

Socioeconomic information

Climate information

SSP1 SSP2 SSP3

Shared Socio-economic Pathways

SSP4 SSP5

Challenge to adaptation

Challenge t

o m

itig

ation

The Scenario Matrix Architecture

Challenge to adaptation

Challenge t

o m

itig

ation

SSP1:Sustainability

SSP2: Middle of the Road

SSP3: Regional rivalry

SSP4: Inequality

SSP5: Fossil fuel-ed development

The Scenario Matrix Architecture

Narratives

Model tables

Energy

Land-use

Overview

Aerosol/Pollutant Emissions

SSP special Issue

O’Neill et al

GDP

POP

Urbanization

Dellink, Crespo, Leimbach et al.

KC & Lutz

Jiang & O’Neill

AIM

/CG

E, G

CAM

, IM

AG

E,

MESSAG

E-G

LO

BIO

M,

REM

IND

-M

AG

PIE

, W

ITCH

-GLO

BIO

M

SPAs

IAM-based

SSPs

Mitigation

scenarios

Riahi et al

Bauer et al

Popp et al

Rao et al

SSPs

KC and Lutz Dellink et al Jiang and O’Neil

A)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fin

al E

nerg

y (E

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

185018751900

1925

1970

1950

Oil + Gas

Renewables

NuclearCoal

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP1 IMAGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP4 GCAM4

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE

2010

SSP1

SSP4

SSP5

SSP3SSP2

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy S

tru

ctu

re (

five

ma

rke

r sc

en

ari

os

)

Non-fossil

(renewables & nuclear)

Oil & gas

Coal

Total Final Energy Demand

(all IAM scenarios)

LEGEND missing

• SSP colors (marker + range)

• History line and dot

• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)

LEGEND

SSP colors (marker + range)

Add AR5 max/min line

Primary Energy Triangle

(all IAM scenarios)

B) C)

A)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fin

al E

nerg

y (E

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

185018751900

1925

1970

1950

Oil + Gas

Renewables

NuclearCoal

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP1 IMAGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP4 GCAM4

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE

2010

SSP1

SSP4

SSP5

SSP3SSP2

Pri

ma

ry E

ne

rgy S

tru

ctu

re (

five

ma

rke

r sc

en

ari

os

)

Non-fossil

(renewables & nuclear)

Oil & gas

Coal

Total Final Energy Demand

(all IAM scenarios)

LEGEND missing

• SSP colors (marker + range)

• History line and dot

• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)

LEGEND

SSP colors (marker + range)

Add AR5 max/min line

Primary Energy Triangle

(all IAM scenarios)

B) C)

A)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fin

al E

nerg

y (E

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

185018751900

1925

1970

1950

Oil + Gas

Renewables

NuclearCoal

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP1 IMAGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP4 GCAM4

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE

2010

SSP1

SSP4

SSP5

SSP3SSP2

Pri

mary

En

erg

y S

tru

ctu

re (

five

ma

rker

scen

ari

os)

Non-fossil

(renewables & nuclear)

Oil & gas

Coal

Total Final Energy Demand

(all IAM scenarios)

LEGEND missing

• SSP colors (marker + range)

• History line and dot

• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)

LEGEND

SSP colors (marker + range)

Add AR5 max/min line

Primary Energy Triangle

(all IAM scenarios)

B) C)

A)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fin

al E

nerg

y (E

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

185018751900

1925

1970

1950

Oil + Gas

Renewables

NuclearCoal

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP1 IMAGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP4 GCAM4

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE

2010

SSP1

SSP4

SSP5

SSP3SSP2

Pri

mary

En

erg

y S

tru

ctu

re (

five m

ark

er

scen

ari

os)

Non-fossil

(renewables & nuclear)

Oil & gas

Coal

Total Final Energy Demand

(all IAM scenarios)

LEGEND missing

• SSP colors (marker + range)

• History line and dot

• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)

LEGEND

SSP colors (marker + range)

Add AR5 max/min line

Primary Energy Triangle

(all IAM scenarios)

B) C)

A)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Fin

al E

nerg

y (E

J)

0

200

400

600

800

1000

1200

1400

1600

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

185018751900

1925

1970

1950

Oil + Gas

Renewables

NuclearCoal

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP1 IMAGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP2 MESSAGE-GLOBIOM

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP3 AIM/CGE

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP4 GCAM4

2010 2040 2070 2100

0.0

0.2

0.4

0.6

0.8

1.0SSP5 REMIND-MAGPIE

2010

SSP1

SSP4

SSP5

SSP3SSP2

Pri

mary

En

erg

y S

tru

ctu

re (

five m

ark

er

scen

ari

os)

Non-fossil

(renewables & nuclear)

Oil & gas

Coal

Total Final Energy Demand

(all IAM scenarios)

LEGEND missing

• SSP colors (marker + range)

• History line and dot

• PE structure (dark/intermediate/light)

LEGEND

SSP colors (marker + range)

Add AR5 max/min line

Primary Energy Triangle

(all IAM scenarios)

B) C)

Coal

Oil/gas

Other

21 januari 2016 9

Bauer et al.

Baseline

4.5 W/2

2.6 W/2

Primary energy use (EJ)

Wide range from rewilding in the SSP1 to continious expansion of human-dominated area in SSP3

21 januari 2016 10

Popp et al.

Land area (million ha)

21 januari 2016 11

Rao et al.

Air pollution Much wider range than in RCPs… from high pollution world (SSP3) to clean air (SSP1/2.6-scenarios)

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

Sulfur

(MtS

)

0

20

40

60

80

100

120

140

160

SSP1

SSP2

SSP3

SSP4

SSP5

RCPs

IAM range SSP marker

Greenhouse gas emissions

21 januari 2016 12

Riahi et al.

13

CO2 emissions

21 januari 2016 14

SSP5

SSP3

SSP2

SSP4

SSP1

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

2000 2020 2040 2060 2080 2100

2.6 W/m2

Forcing (W/m2)

21 januari 2016 15

Scenario matrix architecture forms scenario tool kit

• Offers storylines and quantitative information for ‘reference scenarios’ for: • Further elaboration in impact research (consistent

set of socio-economic data) • Basis for new climate research (e.g. treatment of

land-use, aerosols) • Offers opportunity to elaborate scenarios in

regional/sectoral studies • Provides opportunity for mitigation ánd

impact/adaption research in one structure

SSP3 SSP2 SSP1 SSP3 SSP2 SSP1

Mitigation Impacts/adaptation

Feasibility and costs of targets greatly depend on the SSP

(Mitigation costs as % of GDP)

Fo

rcin

g l

evel (W

/m

2)

8.5

6.0

4.5

2.6

0.01 (0.01-0.03)

0.27 (0.01-0.27)

0.15 (0.08-0.15)

0.62 (0.23-1.00)

0.54 (0.44-0.54)

1.88 (0.50-1.88)

1.33 (1.33-3.47)

0.02 (0.02-0.02)

0.09 (0.03-0.28)

0.68 (0.46-0.68)

3.09 (3.09-4.62)

0.18 (0.1-0.18)

SSP1 SSP4 SSP2 SSP3 SSP5

0.09 (0.07-0.12)

0.93 (0.08-0.93)

0.43 (0.43-0.82)

2.09 (0.87-2.79)

1.40 (1.40-1.41) 3.4

0.04 (0.01-0.04)

1

<0.1

2

3

>5

Mitigation costs are given as area under the MAC and percent of total GDP (2010-2100)

Special Issue Global Environmental Change Riahi and van Vuuren (eds.) (under preparation)

Narratives: O’Neill et al (accepted)

Population: KC & Lutz (accepted)

GDP: (1) Leimbach et al, (2) Dellink et al, (3) Crespo (accepted)

Urbanization: Jiang & O’Neill (accepted)

5 x SSP marker papers

Crosscut papers:

– Energy (Bauer et al)

– Land-use (Popp et al)

– Air Pollution/Aerosols (Rao et al)

Submission before Dec, 15! Planned finalisation April 16

Next phase

SSP database

Scenario MIP

Climate Model output

Impact research

RCPs

Call for other teams to contribute

Strengthened database

Use in research projects

Use in other communities

Questions?

21 januari 2016 19