solyndra memo final - fm3-pos · town hall meetings in the summer of 2009 is a good example, where...
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MEMORANDUM TO: INTERESTED PARTIES FROM: DAVE METZ / FM3
LORI WEIGEL / PUBLIC OPINION STRATEGIES DATE: SEPTEMBER 26, 2011 RE: RECENT RESEARCH INSIGHTS INTO THE SOLYNDRA ISSUE In the past several weeks, Public Opinion Strategies (R) and Fairbank, Maslin, Maullin, Metz & Associates (D) have jointly and separately conducted both survey and focus group research among voters in several states that explored voter awareness of the Solyndra bankruptcy and its implications for the broader debate about clean energy in our country. These primarily included a statewide survey for a clean energy coalition in Ohio and focus groups conducted on behalf of the Sierra Club in California. We are sharing this recent data with the permission of our clients to help provide some context for how the public is reacting to this issue. • Thus far, Solyndra is still news junkie fodder and not dinner table conversation. There are
certain issues that hit the national consciousness and start to boil – health care reform at town hall meetings in the summer of 2009 is a good example, where millions of voters had a personal stake in the outcome of a policy debate and focused on continued news coverage, absorbing a great deal of specific information – and sometimes misinformation – in the process.
Solyndra is no health care reform ‐ at least not yet. Our joint survey of 650 voters in Ohio
conducted a week after the bankruptcy filing, for example, demonstrated that just one‐in‐ten (11%) said they had heard “a great deal” about the issue, with another 16% saying they had heard “a little” about it. We typically take professed awareness of an issue like this
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with a grain of salt, as voters who say they have heard “a little” typically cannot provide details about the issue and may simply be hesitant to admit a lack of knowledge. The profile of those who had heard about the issue was overwhelmingly conservative, male and older, and may be due to news preferences among this audience.
Not surprisingly, awareness seems to be higher in California. There was near‐universal awareness of the company, and many details of its financial problems, in focus groups FM3 conducted this month with swing voters in the San Francisco Bay Area where Solyndra is based. But in other California locations – including Fresno and Los Angeles – awareness was much more modest, though at least a handful of participants in each focus group brought it up as soon as the subject of clean energy was raised.
• We have seen nothing to indicate an impact on views of clean energy broadly, or solar
specifically. In dozens of focus groups we have conducted this month across the country on a wide variety of subjects, when voters are asked where they would like new jobs in their state to come from, the first words out of their mouths are almost always the same – clean energy and related technology. Voters believe that the clean energy economy is here and is growing, and they want their state to have a part of it. Their positive feelings about the clean energy industry translate into high regard for the leading companies in the industry. In focus groups in electorally important states that POS conducted after the Solyndra news story broke, voters consistently indicated that renewable energy companies are the types of businesses that they regard most positively and trust.
Similarly, in FM3’s California research, even a group of Republican male swing voters – who expressed deep cynicism about government, business, and most other major institutions in American life – voiced strong faith in the viability of the solar industry. These voters were quick to condemn the federal government for failing to do its due diligence in evaluating Solyndra’s business prospects, and for squandering taxpayer dollars on what they saw as a bad bet. But even the most hardened conservatives in that group strongly agreed that the solar industry is strong, growing, and worthy of future investment.
• When presented with arguments that attempt to use Solyndra to indict public investments in clean energy more broadly, voters reject them. In the California focus groups, voters consistently described Solyndra as a distinct and isolated case – a “bad apple” that should not cause the public to reject the idea of making investments to stimulate the clean energy industry. Focus group participants pointed out that businesses in any industry fail all the time; it’s the nature – and beauty – of free market competition. And surviving businesses will be those with the products and plans that are best positioned for future success in their industry.
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In Ohio, voters were provided with two different viewpoints and asked which one comes closer to their own. As illustrated below they are twice as likely to side with those who believe Solyndra is the exception, rather than the rule.
As with most public policy issues, there is a significant partisan distinction on how voters view this issue. Notably, though, only certain subgroups of Republicans are skeptical of investments in clean energy; GOP women and Republicans who do not identify with the Tea Party more closely resemble the overall electorate in their views, as seen below.
% Side With… Continue to Invest Waste of Money Difference All Voters 62% 31% +31% Democrats 77% 18% +59% Independents 60% 32% +28% Republicans 49% 43% +6% GOP/Not Tea Party 63% 31% +32% GOP/Tea Party 36% 55% ‐29% GOP Women 56% 35% +21% GOP Men 41% 53% ‐12%
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• Descriptions of the successes of the American solar industry offer a strong rebuttal to criticisms of Solyndra. When offered a series of responses to the Solyndra bankruptcy, the most compelling – by far – for California focus group participants was one which highlighted a few other successes in the industry (shown below). As one focus group participant noted, Solyndra was “one bad apple in the barrel” – with lots of other successes surrounding , and serving to demonstrate the industry’s vitality.
“All emerging industries have their share of successes and failures. For every Solyndra, there many successful solar companies like First Solar – whose construction projects will create nearly 4,000 construction jobs over the next two to four years – and SolarCity – which has added 484 new employees so far this year, and expects to hire 200 to 300 more before the end of the year.”
• That said, Solyndra does pose a potential problem for future public investments in clean
energy, since it further fuels general skepticism about government’s fiscal decisions. A prolonged drumbeat on this issue could reinforce the strong concerns that voters across the political spectrum hold toward government financial decision‐making. However, it is far more likely to heighten voters’ concerns about government stimulus spending in general than it is to erode perceptions of the solar industry.
While we have thus far found great consistency around the country in reactions to this issue, opinions are likely to shift as the issue unfolds, and may vary among subgroups of the electorate and by geographic location. We are happy to discuss this research and answer questions on its implications: David Metz at 510‐451‐9521 and dave@fm3research.com, or Lori Weigel at 303‐433‐4424 and lori@pos.org.
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