social desirability effects in market research effectiveness
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SOCIAL DESIRABILITY EFFECTS IN MARKET
RESEARCH EFFECTIVENESS
9.19.2016
MEETTHE
TEAMA BIT OF CONTEXT
THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL
CASE STUDIE
SCONCLUSIO
NS AND NEXT STEPS
MEETTHE
TEAM
MEET THE TEAM
KELLEY STERNHAGEN
Director, Analytics W2O Group
SETH DUNCANChief Analytics Officer, W2O
Group
A BIT OF CONTEXT
THE ALLURE OF DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of the
population, the population is represented
on social
of people in developed
markets have active accounts on their country’s
most popular social platform (We Are Social)
of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis
Social media provides insight into younger audiences,
which have been more difficult to understand in
the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of the
population, the population is represented
on social
of people in developed
markets have active accounts on their country’s
most popular social platform (We Are Social)
of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis
Social media provides insight into younger audiences,
which have been more difficult to understand in
the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of the
population, the population is represented
on social
of people in developed
markets have active accounts on their country’s
most popular social platform (We Are Social)
of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis
Social media provides insight into younger audiences,
which have been more difficult to understand in
the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of the
population, the population is represented
on social
of people in developed
markets have active accounts on their country’s
most popular social platform (We Are Social)
of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis
Social media provides insight into younger audiences,
which have been more difficult to understand in
the past
ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA
While social is not
representative of the
population, the population is represented
on social
of people in developed
markets have active accounts on their country’s
most popular social platform (We Are Social)
of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis
Social media provides insight into younger audiences,
which have been more difficult to understand in
the past
PEOPLE POST A RANGE OF POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EXPERIENCES ONLINE
SOCIAL MEASUREMENT CAN LACK ACTIONABILITY FOR MARKETERS
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN
ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE
1% CREATE CONTENT
9% SHARE AND
REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN
LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION
THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
BOX OFFICE RECEIPTS
(Asur & Huberman, 2010; Noseworthy,
2013; Panaligan & Chen, 2013)
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
ELECTORAL OUTCOMES
(DiGrazia et. al., 2013; Maldonado & Sierra, 2016;
O’Connor et. al., 2010; Tumasjan et. al., 2010)
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS
(Ginsberg & Mohebbi, 2009)
SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…
ECONOMIC INDICES
(Choi & Varian, 2012)
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
Young & McCoy, 2015
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011
Young & McCoy, 2015
SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES
Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011
Reifman, Klein & Murphy, 1989Visser & Krosnick, 1998Tesch, 1983
Young & McCoy, 2015
CASE STUDIE
S
CASE STUDY #1: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR BOX OFFICE SALES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ABOUT THE STUDY
GOALS
ABOUT THE STUDY
SAMPLE
ABOUT THE STUDY
INDEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
DEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUES
PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL AND DIGITAL METRICS ACROSS MOVIE-GOING AGE BANDS
Digital is a better predictor of purchase behavior among those 18-44
13 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54
39%28% 28% 35%
54%
37% 55% 49% 41%19% Digital Metrics
Non-Digital Metrics
PRED
ICTI
VE (R
2) C
ONTR
IBUT
ION
CASE STUDY #2: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR AUTOMOTIVE
SALES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ABOUT THE STUDY
GOALS
ABOUT THE STUDY
SAMPLE
ABOUT THE STUDY
INDEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
DEPENDENT
VARIABLES
ABOUT THE STUDY
ANALYSIS
TECHNIQUES
PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR HIGH PRICE AUTOMOBILESLower predictive value for intent to purchase among younger audiences
suggests aspirational responses
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64
27% 24% 25%38% 36%
10% 13% 14%
14% 15%14% 12% 13%
15% 15%
Behavioral Metrics
Survey (Intent)
PRED
ICTI
VE (R
2) C
ONTR
IBUT
ION
Conversational Metrics
PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR MID-PRICED AUTOMOBILES
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64
12% 18% 22% 19% 19%
30%32% 30% 30% 31%
52%45% 43% 45% 45%
Survey (Intent)
PRED
ICTI
VE (R
2) C
ONTR
IBUT
ION
Digital and social signals far exceed prediction values for self-reported intent
Behavioral Metrics
Conversational Metrics
PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR LOW-PRICED AUTOMOBILESResults suggest those with more financial
flexibility could be exhibiting self-monitoring around intent to make fiscally responsible
choice
18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64
37% 31% 26% 26% 26%
51% 65% 71% 71% 70% Digital & Social Metrics
Survey (Intent)
PRED
ICTI
VE (R
2) C
ONTR
IBUT
ION
CONCLUSIONS AND
NEXT STEPS
SITUATIONS WHERE SELF-MONITORING
IS LIKELY
BRANDS THAT FALL INTO LOWER PRICE
TIERS
SITUATIONS WHERE DIGITAL AND SOCIAL CAN ADD ADDITIONAL PREDICTIVE VALUE
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THANK YOU
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