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SOCIAL DESIRABILITY EFFECTS IN MARKET

RESEARCH EFFECTIVENESS

9.19.2016

MEETTHE

TEAMA BIT OF CONTEXT

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL

CASE STUDIE

SCONCLUSIO

NS AND NEXT STEPS

MEETTHE

TEAM

MEET THE TEAM

KELLEY STERNHAGEN

Director, Analytics W2O Group

SETH DUNCANChief Analytics Officer, W2O

Group

A BIT OF CONTEXT

THE ALLURE OF DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA

ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

While social is not

representative of the

population, the population is represented

on social

of people in developed

markets have active accounts on their country’s

most popular social platform (We Are Social)

of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis

Social media provides insight into younger audiences,

which have been more difficult to understand in

the past

ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

While social is not

representative of the

population, the population is represented

on social

of people in developed

markets have active accounts on their country’s

most popular social platform (We Are Social)

of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis

Social media provides insight into younger audiences,

which have been more difficult to understand in

the past

ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

While social is not

representative of the

population, the population is represented

on social

of people in developed

markets have active accounts on their country’s

most popular social platform (We Are Social)

of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis

Social media provides insight into younger audiences,

which have been more difficult to understand in

the past

ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

While social is not

representative of the

population, the population is represented

on social

of people in developed

markets have active accounts on their country’s

most popular social platform (We Are Social)

of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis

Social media provides insight into younger audiences,

which have been more difficult to understand in

the past

ADDRESSING THE REPRESENTATIVENESS OF SOCIAL MEDIA

While social is not

representative of the

population, the population is represented

on social

of people in developed

markets have active accounts on their country’s

most popular social platform (We Are Social)

of Americans 65+ report using social media on a regular basis

Social media provides insight into younger audiences,

which have been more difficult to understand in

the past

PEOPLE POST A RANGE OF POSITIVE & NEGATIVE EXPERIENCES ONLINE

SOCIAL MEASUREMENT CAN LACK ACTIONABILITY FOR MARKETERS

ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE

1% CREATE CONTENT

9% SHARE AND

REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN

ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE

1% CREATE CONTENT

9% SHARE AND

REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN

ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE

1% CREATE CONTENT

9% SHARE AND

REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN

ONLY A SMALL NUMBER OF PEOPLE POST CONTENT ONLINE

1% CREATE CONTENT

9% SHARE AND

REPACKAGE90% LISTEN AND LEARN

LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION

LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION

LEVERAGING DIGITAL BEHAVIORAL TRACES IN ADDITION TO CONVERSATION

THE PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL

SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…

SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…

BOX OFFICE RECEIPTS

(Asur & Huberman, 2010; Noseworthy,

2013; Panaligan & Chen, 2013)

SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…

ELECTORAL OUTCOMES

(DiGrazia et. al., 2013; Maldonado & Sierra, 2016;

O’Connor et. al., 2010; Tumasjan et. al., 2010)

SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…

INFLUENZA OUTBREAKS

(Ginsberg & Mohebbi, 2009)

SOCIAL AND DIGITAL DATA IS SOMEWHAT PREDICTIVE OF…

ECONOMIC INDICES

(Choi & Varian, 2012)

SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES

SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES

Young & McCoy, 2015

SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES

Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011

Young & McCoy, 2015

SOCIAL DESIRABILITY MEANS DIGITAL AND SOCIAL DATA MAY PROVIDE ADDITIONAL VALUE FOR YOUNGER AUDIENCES

Pearson, Henryks & Jones, 2011

Reifman, Klein & Murphy, 1989Visser & Krosnick, 1998Tesch, 1983

Young & McCoy, 2015

CASE STUDIE

S

CASE STUDY #1: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR BOX OFFICE SALES

ABOUT THE STUDY

ABOUT THE STUDY

GOALS

ABOUT THE STUDY

SAMPLE

ABOUT THE STUDY

INDEPENDENT

VARIABLES

ABOUT THE STUDY

DEPENDENT

VARIABLES

ABOUT THE STUDY

ANALYSIS

TECHNIQUES

PREDICTIVE VALUE OF SOCIAL AND DIGITAL METRICS ACROSS MOVIE-GOING AGE BANDS

Digital is a better predictor of purchase behavior among those 18-44

13 - 17 18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54

39%28% 28% 35%

54%

37% 55% 49% 41%19% Digital Metrics

Non-Digital Metrics

PRED

ICTI

VE (R

2) C

ONTR

IBUT

ION

CASE STUDY #2: AGE EFFECTS IN PREDICTIONS FOR AUTOMOTIVE

SALES

ABOUT THE STUDY

ABOUT THE STUDY

GOALS

ABOUT THE STUDY

SAMPLE

ABOUT THE STUDY

INDEPENDENT

VARIABLES

ABOUT THE STUDY

DEPENDENT

VARIABLES

ABOUT THE STUDY

ANALYSIS

TECHNIQUES

PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR HIGH PRICE AUTOMOBILESLower predictive value for intent to purchase among younger audiences

suggests aspirational responses

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64

27% 24% 25%38% 36%

10% 13% 14%

14% 15%14% 12% 13%

15% 15%

Behavioral Metrics

Survey (Intent)

PRED

ICTI

VE (R

2) C

ONTR

IBUT

ION

Conversational Metrics

PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR MID-PRICED AUTOMOBILES

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64

12% 18% 22% 19% 19%

30%32% 30% 30% 31%

52%45% 43% 45% 45%

Survey (Intent)

PRED

ICTI

VE (R

2) C

ONTR

IBUT

ION

Digital and social signals far exceed prediction values for self-reported intent

Behavioral Metrics

Conversational Metrics

PREDICTIVE VALUES FOR LOW-PRICED AUTOMOBILESResults suggest those with more financial

flexibility could be exhibiting self-monitoring around intent to make fiscally responsible

choice

18 - 24 25 - 34 35 - 44 45 - 54 55 - 64

37% 31% 26% 26% 26%

51% 65% 71% 71% 70% Digital & Social Metrics

Survey (Intent)

PRED

ICTI

VE (R

2) C

ONTR

IBUT

ION

CONCLUSIONS AND

NEXT STEPS

SITUATIONS WHERE SELF-MONITORING

IS LIKELY

BRANDS THAT FALL INTO LOWER PRICE

TIERS

SITUATIONS WHERE DIGITAL AND SOCIAL CAN ADD ADDITIONAL PREDICTIVE VALUE

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