smart city aust summer course_lecture1 world challenges_summer2016

SmartCitySolutionandImplementationAUSTSummerCourse2016

Chapter1:Worldchallenges&RoleoftheCity

ProfessorIsamSHAHROURIsam.shahrour@univ-lille1.fr

Q1:Majorworldchallenges?

Q2:RoleoftheCity?

2Questions

1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Naturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability

Majorworldchallenges

1.WorldPopulationGrowth

UNHigh

UNMedium

UNLow

10Billions

16Billions

6Billions

WorldPopulationGrowth

Consequencesofthepopulationgrowth

Increasedemandfor:• Naturalresources(Energy,water,rawmaterials…)• Food

• Constructions(housing,services,industry,…)• Infrastructures(roads,energy,water,

communication,municipalwastes,..)

Increasedemandforservices:- Education,- Health,- Transportation- Culture,Entertainment,- Customizedservices(oldpeople,..)

Consequencesofthepopulationgrowth

1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Naturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability

Majorworldchallenges

Resources:• Water• Energy• Air• Rawmaterials

2.Naturalresources

Availabilitytoconsumers• Quantity• Quality• Transport/Logistic• Accessibility(poverty)

2.Naturalresources

Majormenaces• Worldpopulationgrowth• Limitedresources• Overexploitation

2.Protectionofnaturalresources

• Pollution• Provisionsecurity

Energychallenges

OECD:OrganizationforEconomicCo-operationandDevelopment

OECD35members

EnergysupplySecurity

Otherblackout:• Italy(2003):

$55billions• Indonesia(2005)

$100billions

USBlackout(2003)• 50Millionpeople• 24hoursforfullrecovery• Cost:$6to$10billion

http://www.forbes.com/sites/williampentland/2013/08/30/blackout-risk-tool-puts-price-tag-on-power-reliability/

“Ourgridsareoldandourequipmentisaging,”saidRobinLuo,vicepresidentandblackoutmodelprojectmanageratHartfordSteamBoiler.

US,theyearlycostofelectricaloutages=$150B

WaterChallengesstressevolution

Source:LeMondediplomatique

(%Waterwithdrawalofthetotalavailablewater)Waterstress

Lackofinfrastructures:1billionoftheworldpopulationdonothaveaccesstodrinkingwaterservice(healthrisk,..)

WaterChalenges

WaterChalengesLackofinfrastructures:2.4billionoftheworldpopulationdonothaveaccesstosewagewaterservice(healthandfloodrisks,..)

Waterleakage:• 20%ofthewatersupply• insomecitiesabout40%

1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability

Majorworldchallenges

Pollution- Air- Water- Soils

3.Pollution

Origin:- Buildings- Transport- Industry- Agriculture

3.PollutionMenaces:• Health• Lifequality• Biodiversity

• Climatechange/GlobalWarming

AirpollutionBuildings,Transport,industry

Airpollutionmap Populationconcentrationmap

Source:USGCRP(2009)

Greenhousegasemission

Airpollutionimpact

Kills7millions/yearEconomiccost:Europe (2009):€ 170billion

SoilandwaterpollutionIndustrialactivity- Brownfields

France:Brownfieldrepartition

1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability

Majorworldchallenges

4.UrbanisationUrbanplanning

- CityDesign(spatialorganization)- Infrastructures- Publicspace- Housing

Consequences:- QualityofLifeAttractiveness

- Socialstability

- Economicactivity

- Slums

4.Urbanisation

Challenges:• PopulationGrowth(hugemetropolis)• Increasedemandforqualityoflife(services,

publicspace,..)• Transportcongestion(newurbanandsocial

models)• Opportunitiesofferedbythedigitalandsocial

innovations

Slumsissue

Mumbai’sSlumMorethanonemillion

Neza-Chalco-Itza,MexicoCity,4 Million

SlumsissueTheslumpopulationisprojectedtoincreasefrom780million(in2000)tosomewherebetween900and1,500million(in2020).

Whattodo?

1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability

Majorworldchallenges

UnitedNation

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Social_issues_in_Germany#The_Hood

Absolutepoverty(WorldBank):Peoplelivingwithlessthan$1.25perday.

Measuredininternationaldollars,adjustedfor:• Pricelevelinthecountry(PPPadjustment)• Pricechangesovertime.

Poverty

Absolutepovertyevolution

Poverty

%oftheworldpopulationbylevelofincome

Globalization,thefreemarket

Unemployment

Laborcosts:operatorHour

25$

1$

UnemploymentrateinEurope(2013)

UnemploymentrateinEurope(2015)

Eurostat for September 2015 –

http://blogs.lse.ac.uk/europpblog/2015/11/09/investing-in-a-zero-carbon-economy-could-help-the-eu-escape-secular-stagnation/

Unemployment

Consequenceson• Economy• Socialcohesion• prosperity• Politicalstability

Agedependencyratio(%)=

Populationageing

Lebanon:?

Peopleolderthan64orlessthan15yearsold

Peoplebetween15-64

http://www.indexmundi.com/lebanon/demographics_profile.html

PopulationageingChallenges• Retirementfunding• Healthandsocialcare• Customizedservices

1. Worldpopulationgrowth2. Protectionofnaturalresources3. Pollution4. Urbanisation5. Socio-economicchallenges6. Sustainability

Majorworldchallenges

• Spatialandtimescales• Environmental,socialandeconomic

interaction

6.Sustainabilityissue

Spatialscale

HouseholdWorld

Interaction

LifeQuality

Time

Futuregeneration

Timescale

1

2

3

Sustainability:Environmental,socialandeconomicinteraction

Video :

A1Urbanization andtheevolution ofcities across 10,000years - VanceKiteA2Human Role inClimate ChangeA3NASA|AYear intheLifeofEarth sCO2

Q&:Majorworldchallenges?

Q2:RoleoftheCity?

2Questions

• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters

PlaceoftheCity?

Concentrationoftheworldpopulation

• 55%oftheWorldpopulation• France(>80%)•Lebanon85%•2050:70oftheWorldpopulation

By2030:• 400,000km2willbeconstructedforurban

use(doublingtheworld’sbuilturbanarea)• Nearly2 billionnewurbanresidents

Developingcountries:centerofurbantransformation

Citieswithmorethan1millionsinhabitants

Concentration in large cities

ThelightMap

Concentration in large cities

Intheclosefuture,citeswithmorethan50millionsinhabitants

• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation

• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters

RoleoftheCity?

TheCity:• 70%oftheworldGDP…• 600metropolisgenerate60%oftheworldGDP• 95%ofthepopulationgrowthinthedevelopingcountries

Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity

GDPofmajorCities(billion$)

LebanonGDP

• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation

• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters

PlaceoftheCity?

TheCity:• 70%ofthetotalenergyconsumption• 75%oftheelectricalenergyconsumption

Energyconsumption

EtatsUnisNewYork

Buildings:41%Transport:30%Industry:29%

Buildings:76%Transport:24%

Transport

Industry

Buildings

Tokyo(2005)

Mexico(2006)

London(1999)

Shanghai(2007)

UrbanTransport Timelostatrushhour(minutes/hour)

TransportChallenges• Urbanization• Populationgrowth• Lackofinfrastructures• Lackofpublictransportation• Management• Lackofinnovation

Energyconsumption- urbandensification

SmartStockholm:ReduceTransportCongestion

2005– 2006:Trafficreduction:18%CO2Reduction:14-18%

• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation

• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Highrisktodisasters

PlaceoftheCity?

TheCity:80% ofthegreenhouseemission

Pollutionemission

London

Paris

Buildings:50%

Transport32%

NorthofFrance:48%fromtheindustry,17%transportFrance:20%fromtheindustry,26%fromtransport

Huge variationincountries

Targets2030:• Cutgreenhousegasesbyatleast40%(reference1990)

• Renewableenergy27%• Energyefficiencyimprovementby27%

Europe:Targets2020(Reference1990):

StrategiestoreducetheGreenhouseGasEmission

• Highconcentrationoftheworldpopulation

• Concentrationoftheeconomicactivity• Highenergyconsumption• Highpollutionemission• Disastersrisk

PlaceoftheCity?

Highrisktodisasters

Urbanpopulationsubjectedtonaturaldisasters:• Flood:379millions• Earthquakes:283Millions• Storms:157Millions

FloodRisk(380millions)

EarthquakeRisk(283millions)

StormsRisk(157millions)

Conclusion

• Hugeincreaseinthepopulation,mainlyindevelopingcountries,inurbanarea

• Increasepressureonnaturalresources• Increasedemandforservicesandinfrastructures

• Highenvironmentalrisk:– Fortheplanet(GlobalWarming,ClimateChange)– Forpublichealth

Conclusion

Indevelopedcountries- Ageinginfrastructures- Ageingpopulation- “Economiccrisis”

ConclusionCitiesisthecenteroftheworldchallenges,Theyshouldaffordforthe– Increasedemandforservices– Increasedemandforjobs– Increasedemandforcomfort– Socialtension,….

Context:Lackoffunding(financialcrisis)

Conclusion

Howtodo?

CouldtheSmartCitybea« the »Solution?

Response:Nextchapters

VIDEOS

B1Why arecities so important inassessing globalenergy?B2MexicoCity's Urban Sprawl - copieB3SydneyScheme toGoGreenandCutGreenhouse Gases

Thank you