sir peter hall - key to london's growth strategy

THE AIRPORT DECISION

Key to London’s Growth Strategy

Professor Sir Peter Hall

Shaping a Growing London:

The Place of an Airport

Stratford

Wednesday 18th June 2014

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s People

London house prices rise 18% in year fuelling fears of bubble Nationwide's figures put London house prices above pre-crisis peak at an average £362,699, as

gap widens with rest of UK Hilary Osborne

The Guardian, Wednesday 2 April 2014 07.42 BST

London’s People: A Basic Dilemma

London’s People: A Basic Dilemma

London’s People: A Basic Dilemma

London’s People: A Basic Dilemma

London’s People: A Basic Dilemma

On this basis, the central projection in the SHMA indicates that London will require between approximately 49,000 (2015-2036) and 62,000 (2015-2026) more homes a year. This range incorporates different levels of population change over the period, the time taken to address current need (backlog) and the anticipated under delivery between 2011 and 2015. The 2015-2036 figure of 49,000 additional homes a year provides the basis for the detailed housing need figures set out in this Plan. In light of the projected higher need, especially at the start of the plan period, this figure should be regarded as a minimum.

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s Economy

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s Economy

Mayor’s Plan 2014: London’s Economy

Mayor’s Plan 2014: Social Makeup

Mayor’s Plan 2014:London’s Transport

Mayor’s Plan 2014: Key Diagram

Headlines: London 2020

• Zone 1: All the Advanced Service Jobs (Mega-

Agglomeration Economies – but Big Capital

pushes out Creative Startups?)

• Zone 2: Über-Middles (and displaced startups?)

• Zone 3: Displaced Cling-Ons (Chattering Classes)

– especially Zone 3 East (Victoria Line,

Overground) - Critical role of Opportunity Areas,

especially Stratford/Royals

• Zones 4/5: The big dilemma

• Thames Gateway: unique: major opportunity sites

close to London (elsewhere: NIMBY frontier)

Big Question: Where will the People Go?

• They can’t fit in London

• The figures don’t add up!

• They can’t go next to London:

• The “sacred” Abercrombie plan

• Plus: Massive NIMBYism

• Must go much further out

• Beyond the NIMBY frontier

• So: 50-80-mile ring

• Except: Thames Gateway:

growth welcome here!

1998 / 2014: “Sociable Cities”

• At edge of Greater

South East

• 50-80 miles (80-

130 km.) from

London

• On high-speed rail

lines – fast travel

to London for

those who need

• Clusters of Garden

Cities – Howard’s

Social City

1998 / 2014: “Sociable Cities”

• At edge of Greater

South East

• 50-80 miles (80-

130 km.) from

London

• On high-speed rail

lines – fast travel

to London for

those who need

• Clusters of Garden

Cities – Howard’s

Social City

1998 / 2014: “Sociable Cities”

• At edge of Greater

South East

• 50-80 miles (80-

130 km.) from

London

• On high-speed rail

lines – fast travel

to London for

those who need

• Clusters of Garden

Cities – Howard’s

Social City

Thames Gateway Visions: 1995, 2003

Thames Gateway Visions: 1995, 2003

Thames Gateway:

Stratford 1999, 2012, 2020

Thames Gateway:

Stratford 1999, 2012, 2020

Thames Gateway:

Stratford 1999, 2012, 2020

Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –

at last Unstuck?

• Long in gestation

• Little development

• Poor quality

Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –

at last Unstuck?

• Long in gestation

• Little development

• Poor quality

• Density controversy

• Higher density:

Needs Rail (DLR,

now Overground)

• Some progress?

Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –

at last Unstuck?

• Long in gestation

• Little development

• Poor quality

• Density controversy

• Higher density:

Needs Rail (DLR,

now Overground)

• Some progress?

Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –

at last Unstuck?

• Long in gestation

• Little development

• Poor quality

• Density controversy

• Higher density:

Needs Rail (DLR,

now Overground)

• Some progress?

Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –

at last Unstuck?

• Long in gestation

• Little development

• Poor quality

• Density controversy

• Higher density:

Needs Rail (DLR,

now Overground)

• Some progress?

Barking Riverside: “Stuck Site” –

at last Unstuck?

• Long in gestation

• Little development

• Poor quality

• Density controversy

• Higher density:

Needs Rail (DLR,

now Overground)

• Some progress?

City of Kent:

Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?

City of Kent:

Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?

City of Kent:

Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?

City of Kent:

Ebbsfleet: Stuck Site truly Unstuck?

City of Kent:

Regenerating the East Kent Coast?

City of Kent:

Regenerating the East Kent Coast?

City of Kent:

Regenerating the East Kent Coast?

Mayor’s Estuary Airport (Isle of Grain)

• Agricultural/reclaimed land

• Compatible with Thames Gateway strategy

• Noise: Impact less than 5% Heathrow equivalent

• Connections: New HSL (just over 30 mins); Crossrail extension; HS1

• Faster than LHR from many Central London locations

• Need to widen M25 – but compatible with current options

• Can be connected to HS2

• Some biodiversity and habitats impacts – but precedents for habitat migration

21st-Century Garden City:

Shelter’s Wolfson Prize Vision

21st-Century Garden City: Mayor’s Vision

• “Heathrow City”: New

residential quarter,

round transport hub

• Terminal buildings for

retail, town and

convention centre

• Focus on education

and commercial

research

• 80k homes, 90k jobs

• Value: £7.5bn a year

So: Today’s Key Question!

• 2030: Short-

Term Airport

Fix for

London?

• 2050:

Strategic

Vision for

the Greater

South East?