session sponsor - milken institute€¦ · session sponsor. 55 60 65 70 75 80 85 90 95 00 80 75 70...

Session Sponsor

00959085807570656055

80

75

70

65

60

55

50

Percent

Non-Financial Business Tangible AssetsAs Percent of All Assets, 1955 - 2001

Access to CapitalMilken Institute Capital Access Index

105.00Australia85.16New Zealand85.16Luxembourg

75.22Canada65.35Netherlands

55.38Switzerland45.43Singapore35.50United States25.59United Kingdom15.65Hong Kong2002 Rank2002 Score

High Yield New IssuanceAnnual

0098969492908886848280

1000

800

600

400

200

0

200

150

100

50

0

Number of Issues US$ Billions

Number of New Issues - LValue of Issues - R

0098969492908886848280

16

14

12

10

8

6

Percent

U.S. Average Yield at Issuance High-Yield Securities

USUK

SwitzSweden

NorwayNether.

JapanGermany

FranceDenmark

CanadaAustralia

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Business Filings per Million People

Business Bankruptcies Per Capita

00959085807570

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Percent Change, Year Ago

Consumers Dampen RecessionReal Consumer Spending

2001200019991998199719961995

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Percent Change, Year Ago

ExportsImports

U.S. International TradeExports vs. Imports (Goods and Services)

020098969492908886848280

130

120

110

100

90

80

Index March 1973=100

U.S. – Trade Weighted DollarReal Broad Dollar Index

2001Q42001Q32001Q22001Q12000Q42000Q3

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

-20

Percent Change, Year Ago

Current CycleLast Cycle

Business InvestmentEquipment and Software

Global GDP Growth2000 - 2002

Region 2000 2001 2002World 3.9 1.3 1.7U.S. 4.1 1.2 2.2Japan 2.4 -0.5 -1.0European Union 3.4 1.6 1.6Eastern Europe 6.8 4.0 2.9Asia-Pacific 6.5 3.3 5.0Latin America 3.9 0.3 0.3

009896949290888684828078767472

13

12

11

10

9

8

7

6

Percent

Profits Margins - Lowest in Post-War!Profits as Share of Non-Financial Corporate GDP

U.S. – Real GDP Growth1996 Prices

00959085807570

10

8

6

4

2

0

-2

-4

Percent Change, Year Ago

00959085807570

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

-150

Billions of 96$

Massive Inventory LiquidationChange in Inventories

00959085807570

90

85

80

75

70

65

Percent

Excess Factory CapacityManufacturing Capacity Utilization

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

US$ Trillions

Real EstateEquities & Mutual Funds

Real Estate Values Exceed Equities1990 - 2002

2001200019991998

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Percent Change, Year AgoNew OrdersUnfilled Orders

U.S. – Communications EquipmentOrders

2001200019991998

80

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Percent Change, Year AgoNew OrdersUnfilled Orders

U.S. – Electronic Components Orders

2001200019991998

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

Percent Change, Year AgoNew OrdersUnfilled Orders

U.S. – Electronic Computers Orders

2001200019991998

60

40

20

0

-20

-40

-60

-80

Percent Change, Year Ago

New OrdersUnfilled Orders

U.S. – Search & Navigation Equipment Orders

2001200019991998

200

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

Percent Change, Year Ago

New OrdersUnfilled Orders

U.S. – Semiconductors Orders

2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

9

8

7

6

5

4

3

2

1

PercentFed Funds Rate10-Year Government Bond

U.S. – Interest Rates Fed Funds Rate and 10-year Government Bond

2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

Percent

U.S. – Yield Curve 10-year Government Bond minus Fed Funds Rate

2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

2.5

2.0

1.5

1.0

0.5

Percent

U.S. – Corporate Spread Moody’s Corporate Aaa minus 10-year Treasury Bond

20012000199919981997199619951994199319921991

6

5

4

3

2

1

0

-1

Percent Change, Year Ago

U.S. – Labor Costs Unit Labor Costs – Business Sector

20001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

25

20

15

10

5

0

US$ Billions

Individual Retirement AccountsEmployer-Sponsored Pension Plans

Mutual Fund Retirement Assets Individual & Employer-Sponsored Accounts

200220012000199919981997199619951994199319921991

19

18

17

16

15

14

13

20

15

10

5

0

-5

Millions Percent Change, Year AgoCredit/Income - LCredit Growth - R

U.S. – Consumer Credit Credit/Income and Credit Growth

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

140

120

100

80

60

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R

U.S. Communications Equipment Private Fixed Investment

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

120

100

80

60

40

20

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

-40

US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R

U.S. Computer & Peripheral Equipment Private Fixed Investment

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

45

40

35

30

25

20

20

15

10

5

0

-5

US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R

U.S. Instruments Private Fixed Investment

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

200

180

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

30

25

20

15

10

5

0

-5

US$ Billions Percent Change, Year AgoInvestment Level - LPercent Change - R

U.S. Software Private Fixed Investment

2002200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

8

7

6

5

4

3

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Percent Percent Change, Year Ago

Unemployment Rate - LAverage Hourly Earnings - R

U.S. Wages and Unemployment Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment

0098969492908886848280

10

8

6

4

2

0

1400

1200

1000

800

600

400

200

0

Thousands US$ Billions

Number of Deals - LValue of Deals - R

U.S. – Mergers & Acquisitions Total Value and Total Number of Deals Completed

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

120

100

80

60

40

20

0

US$ Billions, 1996Industrial StructuresCommercial Structures

U.S. Construction Real Industrial and Commercial Structures Investment

00959085807570

160

140

120

100

80

60

40

U.S. Avg = 100

U.S. Housing Affordability Index Seasonally Adjusted

00959085807570

15

10

5

0

-5

-10

-15

Percent Change, Year Ago

U.S. Industrial Production Industrial Production Index, FRB

0098969492908886848280

1

0

-1

-2

-3

-4

-5

Percent

U.S. Current Account Balance As Percent of GDP

0098969492908886848280

80

60

40

20

0

1.4

1.2

1.0

0.8

0.6

0.4

0.2

US$ Billions PercentReserves Minus Gold - LReserves as % of GDP - R

U.S. Official Reserves Total Reserves Minus Gold and as Percent of GDP

009590858075706560

66

64

62

60

58

56

54

Percent

U.S. Working Population Employment Relative to Working Age Population

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

150

100

50

0

-50

-100

US$ BillionsExportsImportsTrade Balance

U.S. Trade Balance Merchandise Exports, Imports and Balance

0098969492908886848280

16

14

12

10

8

6

PercentExportsImports

U.S. Role of Trade As Percent of GDP

0098969492908886848280

28

26

24

22

20

18

16

12

10

8

6

4

2

Percent US$ Trillions

Exports Plus Imports Share of GDP- LGDP - R

U.S. International Trade Exports Plus Imports as Percent of GDP

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Percent Change, Year Ago

MexicoOther Latin America

U.S. Exports to Latin America Merchandise Exports

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

-30

Percent Change, Year AgoJapanWest EuropeCanada

U.S. Exports to G-8 Merchandise Exports

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

40

30

20

10

0

-10

-20

Percent Change, Year Ago

CanadaMexico

U.S. Exports to NAFTA Merchandise Exports

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

40

20

0

-20

-40

Percent Change, Year Ago

U.S. Exports to Asia Asian Newly Industrialized Countries

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

4

3

2

1

0

-1

-2

-3

8

7

6

5

4

3

Percent Change, Year Ago Percent

Estab. Employment - LUnemployment Rate - R

U.S. Unemployment Rate Employment Growth and Unemployment Rate

200120001999199819971996199519941993199219911990

8

7

6

5

4

3

4.5

4.0

3.5

3.0

2.5

2.0

Percent Percent Change, Year Ago

Unemployment Rate - LAverage Hourly Earnings - R

U.S. Wages and Unemployment Average Hourly Earnings and Unemployment

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001

Air Transactions

1st Qrt '01 2nd Qrt '01 3rd Qrt '01 4th Qrt '01 1st Qrt '02

Current Period Prior Period

LodgingRevPAR

Rental Car TransactionsMonthly

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001

Timeshare Activity(Exchanges/Tours)

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001

Real EstateOpen Contracts To Buy

Sept Oct Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar

2001 - 2002 2000 - 2001

Mortgage Applications

Jim SchroerExecutive Vice President

Global Marketing, Sales and Service

U.S. Economy: Still the Strongest Kid on the Block

U. S. Auto Industry drives the National Economy

• Directly employs more than 1.3 million Americans • Creates more than 2.2 million additional jobs through dealers,

suppliers, and other auto-related companies • Expenditures of auto industry employees create an additional

3.1 million jobs nationwide • Total: 6.6 million jobs in 50 states - about five percent of all

private-sector jobs in the United States

U.S. Auto Industry Employment - Direct and Spin-off Jobs

America’s Automobile IndustryDriving the Economy in all 50 States

• Since 1987, the U. S. auto industry has grown by more than 47 percent

• The auto industry invests more in research and

development than any other industry (approximately $18 billion annually)

• More that 3.7 percent of GDP is generated by the production

and sale of new light vehicles • Motor vehicle manufacturing ranks among the top four

industries in terms of value added per employee – the auto industry’s level of $137,000 per worker was 47 percent higher than U. S. manufacturing’s average of $93,000

• 95 percent of personal vehicle miles traveled in the United

States are made in personal motor vehicles, as opposed to public transportation of all types

PolandIndia

AustraliaRussia

KoreaBrazil

CanadaSpain

ChinaUK

ItalyFrance

GermanyJapan

US

20

15

10

5

0

Millions of Vehicles

Vehicle Sales in Major Countries1999

C. Rep.Poland

RussiaBrazil

MexicoItaly

ChinaUK

KoreaSpain

CanadaFrance

GermanyJapan

US

14

12

10

8

6

4

2

0

Millions of Vehicles

Vehicle Production in Major Countries1999

U.S. Light Vehicle Production 1990 -1999

1,5000

Vehicles

3,0004,5006,0007,5009,000

10,50012,00013,50015,00016,500

Cars

Light Trucks

9091

9293

9495

9697

9899

9,5433,4666,077

3,1765,439 8,615

3,8085,664 9,472

4,6085,981 10,589

5,3226,614 11,936

5,3066,351 11,657

5,4486,083 11,531

5,8585,972 11,785

6,0135,556 11,569

7,0255,632 12,657

Passenger Car vs. Light Truck SalesIn 36 states, consumers favor light trucks

How DaimlerChrysler impacted the American economy in 2001

• $7,927,396,883 paid in annual wages to 108,317 employees in 50 states

• $94,047,242 paid in benefits

• $673,672,313 paid in state taxes

• 4,319 dealers nationwide (4,319 x 500=2,159.500 x $20,000 = $43,190,000,000 retail)

• 7,364 suppliers nationwide

• $32,303,010,753 paid to suppliers

Overview of Sales Activities in the NAFTA Region (2001)

Retail Sales(in 1000 Units)

Market Share(in percent)

MB P.C.Chrysler GroupCVDMitsubishiDCS

MB P.C.Chrysler**FL Class 6&7FL Class 8Mitsubishi

U.S.A Canada Mexico Total

206.6

98.62,273.2

11.9

8.1245.6

3.8

10.2130.4

222.3

116.92,649.2

1.613.023.331.8

0.915.411.523.0

1.614.222.613.9

1.513.322.629.2

*Vehicle Total

747.7 63.5 52.3 863.5322

1.9 N/A N/A 1.9

N/A N/A 322

3,310.4*

**Automotive Total

What Propels the U.S. Auto Industry?

Cost

Quality

U.S. Japan

Innovationin Vehicles

Yen Advantage

Working Hard to Close Gap