september 2012 efcc weather update september 2012 efcc weather update

September 2012 September 2012

EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update

September 2012 September 2012

EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update

Briefing FormatBriefing Format

Briefing FormatBriefing Format

This Season So Far

Next ~6 weeks

Winter/Summer Outlook 2013

This Season So Far

Next ~6 weeks

Winter/Summer Outlook 2013

So Far…So Far…

2012

Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres

Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres

Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres

So Far…So Far…

2012 10 Year Average

Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres 255 Fires/16,526 Acres

Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres 511 Fires/3,359 Acres

Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres 766 Fires/19,885 Acres

So Far…So Far…

2012 10 Year Average

Lightning Caused 99 Fires /1,504 Acres 255 Fires/16,526 Acres

Human Caused 341 Fires/388 Acres 511 Fires/3,359 Acres

Total 440 Fires/1,892 acres 766 Fires/19,885 Acres

Data through August 30th

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

CoolCool

So Far…So Far…

CoolCool

So Far…So Far…

CoolCool

Increasing (Wet)Increasing (Wet) Flat (Dry)Flat (Dry)

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

So Far…So Far…

Remainder Fire SeasonRemainder Fire Season

Remainder Fire SeasonRemainder Fire Season

Temperature Sep-Oct-Nov

Remainder Fire SeasonRemainder Fire Season

Precipitation Sep-Oct-Nov

-2.0

-1.5

-1.0

-0.5

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

J F M A M J J A S O N D J F M A M J J A S O N D

SOI

Month

SOI* Values For the Top "Analog Years"and the Current Year (2011-12)

2011-12

2008-09

1971-72

1950-51

*ForSOI explanation see: http://oregon.gov/ODA/NRD/docs/pdf/forecast_method.pdf

Tropical Pacific OceanODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumnTropical Pacific OceanODA “Analogs” also show a transition to “El Niño” this autumn

El El NiñoNiño

La La NiñaNiña

(2008-09; 1971-72; 1950-51)

September 2012 ForecastSeptember 2012 Forecast

Temperatures Precipitation

Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast).Warmer than normal temperatures (except along the coast). Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation.Analog years favor near to slightly below normal precipitation.

October 2012 ForecastOctober 2012 Forecast

Temperatures Precipitation

Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures.Analog years consistently favor below normal temperatures. Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is Analogs have more variation with regards to precipitation, so there is

less confidence in the forecast for less confidence in the forecast for ““dampdamp”” conditions. conditions.

Looking Ahead: Winter/SummerLooking Ahead: Winter/Summer

La La NiñaNiña

El El NiñNiñoo

Looking Ahead: Winter/SummerLooking Ahead: Winter/Summer

El Nino conditions fall and winter drifting back toward Neutral conditions spring and summer.

El Nino conditions fall and winter drifting back toward Neutral conditions spring and summer.

Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer

Temperature Dec-Feb- Mar

Precipitation Dec-Feb- Mar

Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer

Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer

Temperature Jun-Jul-Aug

Looking Ahead: Winter/Summer

Precipitation Jun-Jul-Aug

Bottom Line:Bottom Line:

Bottom Line:Bottom Line:

At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.

At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.

Bottom Line:Bottom Line:

At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.

El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer

At this point no indication of a severe 2013 fire season.

El Nino winter...Neutral Spring/Summer

jlittle@odf.state.or.us

EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update

jlittle@odf.state.or.us

EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update

jlittle@odf.state.or.us

EFCC Weather UpdateEFCC Weather Update