science and technology infusion plan for climate services
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Science and Technology Infusion PlanScience and Technology Infusion Planforfor
Climate ServicesClimate Services
Jiayu ZhouJiayu Zhou
NWS S&T CommitteeNWS S&T CommitteeSeptember 17, 2002September 17, 2002
OutlineOutline
• Team CompositionTeam Composition• Vision/BenefitsVision/Benefits• Goals/TargetsGoals/Targets• Key Information Gaps Key Information Gaps • Key SolutionsKey Solutions• Outstanding R&D Outstanding R&D
NeedsNeeds• SummarySummary
Climate Climate
ServicesServices
Observation
Forecast
Outre
ach
• Jiayu ZhouJiayu Zhou NWS/OSTNWS/OST
• Bob LivezeyBob Livezey NWS/OCWWSNWS/OCWWS
• Fiona HorsfallFiona Horsfall NWS/OCWWSNWS/OCWWS
• Ed OEd O’’leniclenic NWS/NCEP/CPCNWS/NCEP/CPC
• Richard W. ReynoldsRichard W. Reynolds NESDIS/NCDCNESDIS/NCDC
• Martin P. HoerlingMartin P. Hoerling OAR/CDCOAR/CDC
• Simon MasonSimon Mason IRI/UCSDIRI/UCSD
Climate ServicesClimate ServicesTeam CompositionTeam Composition
Climate Services Climate Services Vision and BenefitsVision and Benefits
VisionVision• Provide Seamless Climate, Provide Seamless Climate,
Weather and Water Products Weather and Water Products and Servicesand Services
• Expand Climate Products Expand Climate Products and Services Regionally and and Services Regionally and LocallyLocally
• $ Millions in Savings by Better Planning (Energy, Agriculture, Fishery, Sales, Recreation, Etc.)
• Mitigate Losses from Wildfires Caused by Severe Drought• Save Lives and Reduce Property Damages Caused by Major Climate
Anomalies (Drought, Flood, Heat Waves, and Winter Blizzards)
Based on J. Laver (2002)
Fore
cast
Lea
d Ti
me
Warnings & Alert
Coordination
Watches
Forecasts
Threats Assessments
Guidance
Outlook
Protectio
n of Life
&
Property
Flood Mitig
ation
& Navigati
on
Space O
peratio
n
Transp
ortatio
n
Benefits
Fire W
eather
Hydropower
Agricultu
re
Recrea
tion
Reserv
oir Contro
l
Ecosy
stemEnerg
y
Health
Commerce
State/L
ocal P
lanning
Environmen
t
Minutes
Hours
Days
1 Week
Forecast UncertaintyYears
Seasons
Months
2 WeekI.C
.sB.C.s
Climate ServicesClimate ServicesGoals/Targets to FY 12Goals/Targets to FY 12
Existing GPRA Performance Measure
Current Skill
FY07 Goal Target
FY12 Target
U.S. Seasonal U.S. Seasonal Temperature ForecastTemperature Forecast 2020 2323 2525 2727
Proposed Performance Measure
Current Skill
FY07 Target
FY12 Target
6 Month Lead Sea 6 Month Lead Sea Surface Temperature Surface Temperature Forecast in El NiForecast in El Niñño Areao Area
76%76% 82%82% 84%84%
8-14 Day U.S. 8-14 Day U.S. Temperature ForecastTemperature Forecast 55 77 99
On Track
Low Risk
High Risk
Accuracy Accuracy
Climate Services Climate Services Key Information GapsKey Information Gaps
• Influence of Land Surface Properties (Soil Moisture, Snow, Vegetation, Topography, Etc.)
• Impact of Global Ocean Conditions (SST, Sea Ice, Etc.)
• Internal Variability of Climate Modes (MJO, ENSO, AO/NAO, PDO, Interdecadal Variations, Etc.)
• Understanding of Warm Season Climate System and Predictability
Extreme EventsExtreme Events
Tropical StormsTropical Storms
Droughts/FloodsDroughts/Floods
Trends
(Based on W. Higgins 2002)(Based on W. Higgins 2002)
Linking Climate with Weather & Water
Land
Ocean
Atmosphere
Climate Change
Climate Variability
Tropics (Tropics (MJO, ENSO)
Extratropics (Extratropics (AO/NAO)
Weather
Climate ServicesClimate Services Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions
GAPGAP SolutionSolution ImpactImpact
Land Surface Properties
• COOP, CRN, ASOS, Radar• Satellite Upgrades (Surface Radiation
and Precipitation Observations)• Improved NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-
LDAS (NCEP Core Project)
• Increased Predictability from Land-”Memory” and Feedback
Global Ocean Conditions
• Increased Moored and Drifting Buoys• Improved Satellite Observation (IR +
Microwave) for SST, Surface Wind, Sea Level Height and Sea Ice
• Upgraded GFDL Ocean Model/Data Assimilation System (GODAS Work Plan)
• Improved Sea Ice Model
• Increased Predictability from ENSO and SST Anomalies in Global Ocean
Internal Variability of Climate Modes
• Improved Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling
• Improved Model Dynamics and Physics (SFM/GFS)
• Empirical Prediction Systems
• Improve Week 2 to Seasonal Forecast by Better Understanding of Climate Variability
Warm Season Climate System and Predictability
• Utilize Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Improved Regional and Continental Scale Warm Season Precipitation Forecasts
Climate Services Climate Services Key S&T SolutionsKey S&T Solutions
03 04 05 06 07 08 09 10 11 1202
WSR-88D, TRMM
COOP Modernization Program, CRN, ASOS Upgrade
AER LW Rad AER LW Rad T254L64T254L64
GPMObservations
Data Assimilation / Models
Applications
Training
POES, GOESGIFTS,
GOES-O NPOESS-1, GOES-P GOES-R
Expand Surface and Deep Ocean Buoy Network
T62L28, 21 Mem T126L64T126L64 41 mem41 mem
40kmL6040kmL6040kmL5040kmL50100kmL50, Jason, 100kmL50, Jason, Argo, QuikSCATArgo, QuikSCAT Ocean DAS
Seasonal Fcst Model
Medium-Range Fcst Model
Surface Observation
RadarSatellite
Ocean Buoy
SOO/COMET Course
Improve Micro-Improve Micro-physicsphysics 35kmL10035kmL10040kmL8040kmL80
Add 2 Add 2 TracersTracers
Projects Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)Results of North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 Deployment
OTE
DTE
R&D
Ocean Model
MOM1 (Part of Pacific only) Global MOM3 Global MOM4
Land Sfc Model
Unified NOAH LSM
GOES-QGOES-N
Ice ModelHemispheric,
25km Integrated into Basin & Integrated into Basin & Regional Scale Ocean ModelRegional Scale Ocean Model
Increased Spatial Resolution
New Physics and New Data Sources
41 Mem41 Mem31 Mem31 MemImprove physicsImprove physics
50kmL5050kmL50 35kmL6035kmL60Improve Improve physicsphysics
45km45kmL64L64
Climate Services Climate Services Outstanding R&D NeedsOutstanding R&D Needs
• Improve Observations over Land and Ocean.Improve Observations over Land and Ocean.• Unified NOAH Land Model with Land Data Assimilation and Climate Unified NOAH Land Model with Land Data Assimilation and Climate
Models from Regional to Global Time-Scales (Models from Regional to Global Time-Scales (NCEP Core ProjectNCEP Core Project).).• Improve Global Ocean Data Assimilation by Upgrading GFDL Improve Global Ocean Data Assimilation by Upgrading GFDL
Modular Ocean Model and Incorporating Satellite and In Situ Modular Ocean Model and Incorporating Satellite and In Situ Observations (Observations (GODAS Work PlanGODAS Work Plan).).
• Improve the Ocean-Land Surface-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Improve the Ocean-Land Surface-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics (Advanced Dynamics and Physics (Emerging NCEP SFM/GFSEmerging NCEP SFM/GFS).).
• Develop Empirical Prediction System for MJO-Related Impacts on Develop Empirical Prediction System for MJO-Related Impacts on Precipitation and Surface Temperature at Week 2-4.Precipitation and Surface Temperature at Week 2-4.
• Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAMENAME).).• Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water
Resource Applications.Resource Applications.• Develop a Priori-Skill-Based Objective Blending Forecast Develop a Priori-Skill-Based Objective Blending Forecast
Technique.Technique.
Climate ServicesClimate Services SummarySummary
2007 20122002
Impr
ovin
g Fo
reca
sts
and
Serv
ices
Impr
ovin
g Fo
reca
sts
and
Serv
ices
VisionTo Provide a Seamless Suite of Products and Services of Climate
R&D NeedsR&D Needs
• Conduct North American Conduct North American Monsoon Experiment (NAME)Monsoon Experiment (NAME)
• Develop Empirical Prediction Develop Empirical Prediction System for Week 2-4 forecast System for Week 2-4 forecast
• Develop Regional Climate Model Develop Regional Climate Model and Hydrologic Model for Water and Hydrologic Model for Water Resource ApplicationsResource Applications
• Modernize COOP, CRN, ASOS
• Increase Moored and Drifting Buoys
• Improve Satellite Observation for SST
• VOS/ASAP
• Improve NOAH LSM and N-LDAS, G-LDAS
• Upgrade GFDL Ocean Model from MOM1 to MOM3 and MOM4 and Improve ODAS
• Improve Ocean-Land-Atmosphere-Ice Coupling with Advanced Dynamics and Physics
• Develop Objective Blending Develop Objective Blending Forecast TechniquesForecast Techniques
• AcknowledgementAcknowledgement
• Potential Initiative ThemesPotential Initiative Themes
• Primary Partners/CustomersPrimary Partners/Customers
• Key Products / ServicesKey Products / Services
• S & T RoadmapS & T Roadmap
• ReferencesReferences
Climate Services Climate Services Back-up InformationBack-up Information
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