rv 2014: beyond mobility: corridor planning for the bigger picture by katherine idziorek

DEVELOPMENTPROPENSITYMETHODOLOGY& ANALYSIS

TRANSIT EXPANSION STUDYBALLARD TO

DOWNTOWN SEATTLE

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

PROJECT BACKGROUND

Elliott Bay Downtown Seattle

Ballard*

*

Project Study Area

» Level 2 analysis

» Partnership between Sound Transit (ST) and the Seattle Department of Transportation (SDOT)

» Outcomes: Support Seattle

Transit Master Plan

Inform Sound Transit Board decisions

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

LAND USE + TRANSIT INTEGRATION ANALYSIS

GOALS » Support sustainable urban growth by:

Supporting economic and transit-oriented development in the corridor

Supporting the development of compact and sustainable communities

A B CA CB D E

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

» “4Ds” + P

Density

Design

Diversity

Destinations

MEASURE: OPPORTUNITY FOR DEVELOPMENT

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

jobs and people.

+ Development

Propensity: the art and science of anticipating future development

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

METHODOLOGY OVERVIEW

DISCOVERYDevelop scenarios and apply filters

Test outcomes

OUTPUT

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

DISCOVERY

Understand land use within walkshedsGather readily-available King County Assessor’s data at the parcel level

1

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

APPLY FILTERS

Understand land use within walkshedsGather readily-available King County Assessor’s data at the parcel level

1

Create key filters to identify which parcels are likely to redevelop in the future

2

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

ESTIMATE POTENTIAL IMPACT TO LAND VALUES

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

SCENARIO 2:HCT investment

SCENARIO 3:HCT investment +

Station-area upzone

SCENARIO 1:Existing

conditions

Estimate the impact on land value that HCT service and a potential rezone may have on parcels within the walksheds3

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

SCENARIO 1

» Scenario 1: Existing conditions - no transit investment, no upzone jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

Corridor ID: A B CA CB D E

HCT Tech-nology:

Tunnel/Elevated Light Rail

Elevated Light Rail

At-Grade Light Rail or Street-

car

At-Grade Light Rail or Street-

car

Tunnel Light Rail

At-Grade Streetcar

Quality of Transit: % Impact on Land Value 45% 36% 29% 29% 45% 24%

Criteria Char-acteristics

Criteria Maximum

Weight Corridor ScoringPotential Travel Time Savings

4 4 4 3 3 4 2

Reliability/On-Time Perfor-mance

3 3 3 2 2 3 1.5

Passenger Comfort/Safety

2 2 1 1 1 2 1

Perception of Permanence 2 2 2 1 1 2 1

Station TypeElevated Sta-tions 1 1

Surface Sta-tions 2 2 2 2

Tunnel Stations 3 3 3

Potential for Rezone 1 1 1 0.5 0.5 1 0.5

Total Score 15 12 9.5 9.5 15 8

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

SCENARIO 2: TRANSIT INVESTMENT

» Adjusted to reflect land value lift as a result of transit investment

» Increase in rents translated into land value increase

TRANSIT QUALITY INFLUENCE ON LAND VALUES

Weighting range:Tunnel/elevated LRT = 45% (high) to At-grade streetcar = 24% (low)

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

jobs and people.jobs and people.

jobs and people.jobs and people.

SCENARIO 3: TRANSIT INVESTMENT + UPZONE

» Five geographies reflect differences in land value across neighborhoods

» “One-step” zoning modification

» Increased potential for density has positive impact on land value

» Additional FAR allows for larger buildings that support more jobs and house more people

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

ESTIMATE POPULATION & EMPLOYMENT GROWTH

developmentcapacity (FAR)

#potential residents

#potential employees

% res x sf/resident

+% emp x sf/employee

( )x =

Estimate the growth of population and employment for each alternative4

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

OUTPUT

EMPLOYMENTD D

POPULATION

Potential employment capacity increase

on parcels likely to redevelop (# jobs)

4-500

501 - 1000

1001 - 1500

1501 - 2000

2001 - 2500

2501 - 3000

Potential residential capacity increase

on parcels likely to redevelop (# residents)

3-200

201 - 400

401 - 600

601- 800

801 - 1000

1001 - 1016

Transit investment & upzone

Transit investment

Current conditions

Transit investment & upzone

Transit investment

Current conditions

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

OUTPUTA B CA CB D E

A B CA CB D E

Scenarios 2 & 3: Residential growth beyond baseline

HCT investment & upzone

HCT investment+3,300

+1,900

+3,100

+1,600

+2,400

+800

+3,000

+800

+3,300

+1,900

+2,900

+1,300

DEVELOPMENT PROPENSITY ANALYSIS

A B CA CB D E

OUTPUT

A B CA CB D E

Scenarios 2 & 3: Employment growth beyond baseline

HCT investment & upzone

HCT investment+2,500

+10,900+2,300

+6,900+2,100

+5,400

+2,200

+5,400

+3,000

+4,600

+1,600

+8,200