risk and persuasion

Part One: Risk

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Define: Adventure

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In order to define an activity as an adventure, there needs to be a considerable amount of risk involved.

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What would you be willing to risk?

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Qualitative Risk Analysis Matrix

E – Extreme Risk H – High Risk M – Moderate Risk L – Low Risk

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How to Place Risks in the Matrix

In a risk assessment matrix risks are placed on the matrix based on two criteria: Likelihood: the probability of a risk Consequences: the severity of the impact or the extent of damage caused by the risk.

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Likelihood of Occurrence Based on the likelihood of the occurrence of a risk the risks can be classified under one of the five categories:

Definite: A risk that is almost certain to show-up during project execution. If you’re looking at percentages a risk that is more than 80% likely to cause problems will fall under this category. Likely: Risks that have 60-80% chances of occurrence can be grouped as likely. Occasional: Risks which have a near 50/50 probability of occurrence. Seldom: Risks that have a low probability of occurrence but still can not be ruled out completely. Unlikely: Rare and exceptional risks which have a less than 10% chance of occurrence.

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The consequences of a risk can again be ranked and classified into one of the five categories, based on how severe the damage can be. Insignificant: Risks that will cause a near negligible amount of damage to the overall progress of the project. Marginal: If a risk will result in some damage, but the extent of damage is not too significant and is not likely to make much of a difference to the overall progress of the project. Moderate: Risks which do not impose a great threat, but yet a sizable damage can be classified as moderate. Critical: Risks with significantly large consequences which can lead to a great amount of loss are classified as critical. Catastrophic: These are the risks which can make the project completely unproductive and unfruitful, and must be a top priority during risk management.

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Hi there handsome, Wanna play some poker?

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With you, Sure thing!

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How about $1000 a hand?

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Yeah I can do that!

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Are you sure you Can win?

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You against me? No problem!

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What makes you so sure?

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I play all the time. I got a mean ass Poker face.

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A poker face isn’t going to help you in this game. You need to know the odds of what you are getting into.

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I do; I’m smart.

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Ok Smarty-pants, do you understand what you need to beat me if I have a Flush?

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Yeah, a full house Is all.

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Ok and how will you get that?

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Two cards of one number, three of another.

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And what are your odds Of getting that?

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Pretty good.

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Pretty good?

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That’s what I said isn’t it?

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Define “pretty good.”

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Pretty good is Pretty good. Better than normal good.

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Your definition seems to be lacking the due diligence and comprehensive analysis required to properly answer the question.

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What now?

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First of all, the odds of me getting a flush is less than 1%. Now your odds of getting a full house….

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A full house consists of a 3 of a kind (triple) and a pair. There are 4 suits and 13 ranks. Each triple has 3 different suits. The number of all triples of each rank is - comb (4;3) = 4. The number of all triples = 4*13 = 52.

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The number of all pairs of each rank is comb(4;2) = 6. The number of all pairs = 6*12 = 72 (12 = the number all ranks without the rank of the current triple). In the end we get the probability of full house as 52*72 / 2,598,960 = 3,744/2,598,960

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Yeah you just too cute for all that number talk…

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Go do your homework. I don’t play with chumps.

Part Two: Persuasion

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The saying "No man is an island" is an undeniable truth.

We need the support and cooperation of other people to help us in reaching our goals. Successful people know that one of the most important abilities to possess is the ability to persuade and influence others. Here are some hot tips to do this effectively.

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Persuasion tips:

1.Enter Their world 2.Mirror their body language 3.Be Cheerful and nice 4.Be sincere and trustworthy 5.Provide them with compelling evidence 6.Show them what is in it for them 7.Appeal to wants not needs

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Discussion period: 1. What is the difference between perceived risk and actual risk? Why are they

both important? 2. What was the biggest risk you ever took? What persuaded you to take it? 3. What was one time you failed to assess the amount of risk of something you

got yourself into? 4. When has someone persuaded you to do something that you normally would

not have done? Would you do that again today? 5. When have you persuaded someone else? 6. How do you calculate risk when making big decisions that effect your business

or career? 7. Have you properly used the art of persuasion when negotiating from a point of

weakness? When and how? 8. What time of persuasion works better on men than women? Vise versa?