rising seas and extreme storms: similarities and differences

Rising Seas and Extreme Storms:Similarities and differences

@John EnglanderNewport, RIDecember 10, 2014

FEMA photo

Storm events….“Sandy”

one month after “Sandy”, the“no name” Thanksgiving storm of 2012

Not a Future Problemsaltwater on the streets

every month at peak tide

King Tide not Florida to replace next FLL

Flooding has many variations

Flooding due to:1. Storms

2. Extreme Tides

3. Rising Sea Level

4. Subsidence

5. Runoff / Downstream

6. [Erosion]

Flooding due to:1. Storms

2. Extreme Tides

3. Rising Sea Level

4. Subsidence

5. Runoff / Downstream

6. [Erosion]

Drivers

Predictability

Magnitude

Permanence

Impact areas

Different

Sea LevelToday

Elevation

Combined Effect of Sea Level Rise, Tides and Waves

SLR

Long-Term Risk Factors

Episodic Risk Factors

Maximum Potential Inundation Elevation (!)

William O’Reilly / Scripps Institution of Oceanography

See Level change is “new.”

Barely changed in 5,000 years.

Last time it was higher was 120,000

years ago.

@johnenglander

Sea Level

20,000 Years Ago

Present Sea Level

When all ice meltsMiami Tower“Bank of America”

30th Floor

47th Floor

212 ft (65 m)

20,000 years agoLast Ice Age

390 ft (120 m)

@ johnenglander.net

© 2006 John Englander

@johnenglander

@johnenglander

Greenland =24 feet of SLR

Antarctica = 186 feet of SLR

© 2006 John Englander

Last half century continues the pattern:CO2, global temperature, and sea level are all rising

By 2100, new IPCC Projections:

“10 – 32 Inches of SLR”

#’s do not include the “wild card” amplifiers:

• Methane • West Antarctic glaciers

Methane becoming larger factor

86 x CO2 warming force per unit / 20 years

Takeaways

1. Storms + tides + SLR = vulnerability now

2. After years of stability, SL is rising and

will continue for centuries

3. We can slow SLR, but not stop it

4. The trend can be your friend

5. Know your risk, plan, and adapt

Sacramento, CA is 80 miles from the Pacific but has extreme vulnerability to rising sea level and over a thousand miles of earthen levees.

Rotterdam Multipurpose Urban Dikes Concept

Water Plaza

UNDERGROUND WATER STORAGE

KWS (NL)Benelux Flood Defence System

Beach Resort Scheveningen: Dike-under-Boulevard concept

KWS (NL)Benelux Flood Defence System

New dike

BoulevardAdditional dune

Noordwijk: ‘Dike-in-Dune’ concept

Designing for future generations…

…is our responsibility, and a great opportunity

RECAP

1. Storms, Extreme Tides, and SLR are different.

2. SLR will have different effects in different places.

3. Projections differ and change. Plan for first 3 feet of SLR, asap……more to come

4. Don’t confuse planning for SLR with reducing GHG and other efforts at being “sustainable” and green.

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