responding to the challenge of climate changefrom an international perspectivehange 101224
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- 1. AsiaPacificInitiative(API) Climate,EnergyandFoodSecurityRespondingtotheChallengeof ClimateChange Fromaninternationalperspective 24December,2010 HironoriHamanaka Professor,KeioUniversity GraduateSchoolofMediaandGovernance Chair,BoardofDirectorsInstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies(IGES)
- 2. OutlineCompellingscientificevidenceFromBalitoCopenhagentoCancunBeyondCancunAwayforward:takingactionstowardatransitiontolowcarbonsocieties 2 Source WoodsHoleOceanographicInstitution
- 3. Increasinglyfrequentextremeweatherevents HeatwaveandforestfireinRussia,source NationalGeographicNews,12August2010 FloodinginsouthernPakistan(picturetakenin5 August2010),source AFP
- 4. RetreatingHimalayanGlaciersSource: Nagoya University
- 5. Climategate:theresultsofindependentreviews TheIndependentClimateChangeEmailsReview(July2010) Wedidnotfindanyevidenceofbehaviourthatmight underminetheconclusionsoftheIPCCassessments. IPCCpressreleaseinviewofthefindingsfromthereview conductedbytheNetherlandsEnvironmentalAssessment Agency(July2010) ThekeyconclusionsoftheIPCC4th AssessmentReportare accurate,correctandsupportedentirelybytheleading science inthefield. FindingsoftheInterAcademyCouncil(August2010) IPCCassessmentprocesshasbeensuccessfuloverall. However,theIPCCmustcontinuetoadaptto changing conditionsinordertocontinueservingwellinthefuture.
- 6. Warming of the climate system is unequivocal.Source: Martin Manning, Climate Change 2007: Observations and Drivers of Climate Change
- 7. GlobalandcontinentaltemperaturechangeMost of the observed increase in global Source: IPCCaverage temperatures since the mid-20 th Fourthcentury is very likely due to the observed Assessmentincrease in anthropogenic GHG concentrations. Report, Climate Change 2007: Synthesis Report, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007 Models using only natural forcings Observations Models using both natural and anthropogenic forcings
- 8. GlobalanthropogenicGHGemissionsSource: IPCC Fourth Assessment Report, Climate Change 2007: SynthesisReport, Summary for Policy Makers, 2007
- 9. Emissionallowancesin2020/2050forvariousGHGconcentrationlevels (relativeto1990emissions)Source:IPCCAR4WGIIIReport,Chapter13,p776.
- 10. ClimateChangePolitics Dividedworld:developedvs.developingcountries Historicalresponsibility andequity Universalparticipationneededforeffectiveresponse Commonbutdifferentiatedresponsibilities Challengeofalteringcarbonintensive practices intensive Policiesadvocatedbyscientistsandenvironmentalists oftenconflictwithbusinessinterests. businessinterests Impactofgreenpolitics inEurope,particularlyin Germany Noregretpolicy vs.costeffectivemarketmechanisms regretpolicy vs.environmentalintegrity
- 11. KyotoProtocol(1997) Legallybindingtargets fordevelopedcountry Parties:Japan6%,U.S.7%,EU8%,etc. 8% GHGs:CO2,CH4,N2O,HFCs,PFCs,SF6. Baseyear:1990 (AnydevelopedcountryPartymay use1995forHFCs,PFCsandSF6) Commitmentperiod:2008 2012. UseofGHGremovalsbyLULUCF (landuse,landuse changeandforestry)activities. Introductionofflexiblemechanisms: Emissionstrading,jointimplementation(JI)and Emissionstrading theCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM). theCleanDevelopmentMechanism(CDM
- 12. ChronologyofclimatepoliticsaftertheKyotoProtocolenteredintoforce KyotoProtocolenteredintoforce(2005) MOP1(Montreal,2005) FormallyadoptedtheMarrakechAccords,setting Protocolimplementationinmotion. Protocolimplementationinmotion IPCC4th AssessmentReport(2007) BaliActionPlan (COP13,2007) Decidedtolaunchacomprehensiveprocess inordertoreachanagreedoutcomeand adoptadecisionatCOP15 inCopenhagen. CopenhagenAccord(COP15,2009) CancunAgreement (COP16,2010)
- 13. BaliActionPlan (2007) Partieslaunchedacomprehensiveprocesstoaddress: Partieslaunched Asharedvision for alongtermglobalgoalfor emissionreductions, Enhanced actiononmitigationofclimatechange: Measurable,reportableandverifiable(MRV) commitments oractions, byalldevelopedcountry Parties,whileensuringthecomparability ofefforts amongthem, Nationallyappropriatemitigationactions bydeveloping countryPartiesinthecontextofsustainable development,supportedandenabledbytechnology, development, financingandcapacitybuilding,inaMRVmanner.
- 14. BaliActionPlan(continued) Partieslaunchedacomprehensiveprocess: Partieslaunched Enhancedactiononmitigation (continued):REDD,etc. (continued): Enhancedactiononadaptation toclimatechange Enhancedactionontechnologydevelopmentand transfer Enhancedactionontheprovisionof financialresources andinvestment Partieshavebeenconductingnegotiationsmainly throughtwonegotiatingtracks: AWGLCA AWGKP
- 15. NegotiationprocessundertheBaliActionPlanHowitdiffersfromthatontheKyotoProtocol? NegotiationprocessontheKyotoProtocol FocusedonthestrengtheningoftheAnnexIParties commitments ImpactoftheProtocolontheoverallemissionreduction islimited,sinceitcoverslessthan30%ofglobal emissions NegotiationprocessundertheBaliActionPlan Aimsatenhancingactionsbydevelopingcountries and bytheUS,inadditiontoenhancedactionsbydeveloped countryPartiestotheProtocol Enhancingactionsbydevelopingcountriesisclosely linkedtosupportbydevelopedcountries 16
- 16. Politicallyagreedgoalfor climateprotection G8leadersatLAquilaSummit(2009): Recognizedthebroadscientificviewthatglobalaverage temperatureoughtnottoexceed2 , Reiteratedtheirwillingnesstosharewithallcountries thegoalofachievingatleasta50%reductionofglobal emissionsby2050, emissionsby2050 Supportedagoalofdevelopedcountries reducingGHG emissionsinaggregateby80%ormoreby2050. 80%ormoreby2050 TheCopenhagenAccord(COP15,Copenhagen,2009): Recognizedthattheincreaseinglobaltemperature shouldbebelow2 .
- 17. Staying under the 2 threshold will require a verystringent goal, and the longer the delay inimplementation, the steeper the trajectory required And yet, there are large differences in per capita emissions among regions and countries Source: Global Environment Outlook GEO4 environment for development,UNEP, 2007
- 18. HalvingglobalGHGemissionsandensuringcarbonspacefordevelopment
- 19. Isitpossiblefordevelopingcountriestotakepathwaystowardslowcarbonleapfrogdevelopment? It is important to avoid the risk of locking in more CO2-intensive energy technologies, and to capture an opportunity to leapfrog towards a low-carbon economy Source: Dr. Shuzo Nishioka, Dr. Mikiko Kainuma, NIES, 2008
- 20. Concernsoverpledgingtargetsandtakingmitigationactions Developedcountries Howbigtheeconomicburden theywouldhaveto bear? Aretheireffortscomparable tothoseof othermajor economies?Wouldtheyhurttheirinternational competitiveness? competitiveness Developingcountries Howmuchimpactpledgedactionswouldhaveontheir policiestoeradicatepoverty andachievesustainable development? development Whetherandhowthesupport pledgedbydeveloped countrieswouldactuallybedelivered?
- 21. Copenhagen Accord(2009) AtCOP15,mostPartiessupportedthe CopenhagenAccord,inthatthey: Recognizedthattheincreasein globaltemperatureshouldbebelow2 . AnnexIParties committoimplementemissions targets for2020,tobesubmittedby31January 2010. NonAnnexIParties willimplementmitigation actions,includingthosetobesubmittedby31 January2010,thatwillbesubjecttotheirdomestic measurement,reportingandverification(MRV)
- 22. CopenhagenAccord(Continued) NonAnnexIParties theresultof(domesticMRV) willbereportedthroughtheirnational communicationseverytwoyears,withprovisionsfor internationalconsultationsandanalysis(ICA) under clearlydefinedguidelines.Mitigationactionsseeking internationalsupport willbesubjecttointernational MRV. Thecollectivecommitmentbydevelopedcountries istoprovidenewandadditionalresources, approachingUSD30billionfortheperiod20102012. Developedcountriescommittoagoalofmobilizing jointlyUSD100billiondollarsayearby2020 to addresstheneedsofdevelopingcountries.
- 23. CopenhagenAccordandItsImplementation CopenhagenAccord,whilenotbeingformallyadopted bytheCOP,andonlytakennoteof,isastepforward toenabledevelopingcountriestotakemitigation actions,andtoensuretransparency oftheseactions, inadditiontoenhancingmitigationcommitmentsby developedcountries. TheAccordhas beensignedupbynearly140 countries and morethan80countrieshavesubmitted theirmitigationtargets/actions.
- 24. Mitigationtargets/actionssubmittedbyParties Country Mitigationtargets/actions Japan 25%reductionfrom1990level EU 20%reductionfrom1990level US 17%reductionfrom2005level China 4045%reductionofCO2/GDPfrom2005level Korea 30%reductionfromBAUlevel Indonesia 26%reductionfromBAUlevel India 2025%reductionofCO2/GDPfrom2005level Brazil 36.138.9%reductionfromBAUlevel
- 25. MajorChallengesremainedafterCopenhagen Buildingtrustandconfidence isessential: Torestorefaithinmultilateralprocess Toachieveanagreementonanewinternational climateregimethatisinclusive,effectiveand equitable,and Toensurestrongermitigationactionsthatwillbe necessarytofillthegapstillremaining between targetsandactionspledgedbyPartiesandGHG emissionspathwaysthatcanlimittheglobal temperatureincreasebelow2 .
- 26. CancunAgreement(2010) COP16adoptedtheCancunAgreement andrestoredfaith inmultilateralprocess: Transparencyandinclusive process ThemainCopenhagenoutcomeshavebeenformally broughtundertheUNFCCC Onmitigation,COP16: Createdaprocessforanchoringmitigationpledgesby developedanddevelopingcountries, EstablishedaregistryforNAMAs bydeveloping countriesandenhancedproceduresonMRV/ICA OtherimportantoutcomesincludeonREDD+, adaptation,finance,andtechnology.
- 27. BeyondCancun Bigchallengestobetackledinclude: Raisingdevelopedcountries levelofambition oftheir targets,withaviewtoreducingtheiraggregate emissionsinaccordancewiththerangeindicatedby theIPCCFourthAssessmentReport. Thelegalform oftheoutcometobeadoptedby COP17in2011stillremainsopen.Majoroptionsare theKyotoProtocol(2nd commitmentperiod)plusCOP decision orplusnewprotocol. TheissueofthecontinuationoftheKyotoProtocol remainsunresolved.
- 28. Awayforward Scientificevidenceindicatesseriousimpactof climatechange: Weneedtoavoiddisastrousconsequence. Transitiontolowcarbonsocietiesrequiresa fundamentalchange addressingtheveryroot cause oftheproblem. Weneedtotakedecisiveactions andtoseekto gaintheadvantageofearlymovers. Recognizingourcarbonandotherecological footprint isoneoftheimportantfirststepsto takeaction
- 29. Globalecologicalovershoot depletingtheveryresourcesonwhichhumanlifeand biodiversitydependToday humanity uses the equivalent of 1.3 planets toprovide the resources we use and absorb our wasteSource: World Footprint Do we fit on the planet?, Global Footprint Network,http://www.footprintnetwork.org/en/index.php/GFN/
- 30. EcologicalFootprintQuizSource: http://myfootprint.org/en/
- 31. EcoHomeDiagnosis Aninterestingexperimentalprogrammebeing promotedbytheHyogoPrefecturalGovernmentin collaborationwithIGES. 4 steps: 1. Recognize your position 2. Choose/ set your target 3. Know sources and quantities of CO2 emissions from your daily life at home 4. Develop customized actions at home to achieve your targetSource: http://enviroscope.iges.or.jp/modules/envirolib/view.php?docid=2482
- 32. Where is your familys carbon emissions ranked? Carbon emissionsPower rates Gas rates Your family is ranked at Among 100 families.Your Average Your Averagefamily family Source: http://www.uchi-eco.com/index.php?mode=uchieco
- 33. Carbonemissionsathome:fromwhatsourcesandhowmuchamount? Use of hot water Use of motor vehicle If you choose modest eco-action, you need to reduce your CO2 emissions by 17%. Other sources
- 34. ActionsforreducingCO2emissions CO2 Energy costChoose your actions for CO2 reduction reduction reduction Target Target Purchase efficient hot water supply system achieved! Reduce the use of motor vehicle by half
- 35. Thankyouverymuch HironoriHamanaka Professor,KeioUniversity GraduateSchoolofMediaandGovernance ChairoftheBoardofDirectorsInstituteforGlobalEnvironmentalStrategies hamanaka@iges.or.jp
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