renewable energy developments in europe and the eu targets
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INTERNATIONALENERGY AGENCY© OECD/IEA - 2009
Renewable Energy Developments in
Europe and the EU Targets
Convegno “Le Incentivazioni alle fonti rinnovabili
e gli obiettivi europei: analisi e proposte”GSE
Rome, 27 April 2009
Dr. Paolo FranklHead, Renewable Energy
UnitInternational Energy
Agency
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Drivers for an energy transition and long-term global objectives
Current trends and EU targets
Need for effective and efficient policies
Impacts of the current crisis and outlook
Contents
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8WEO 2008 Energy-related CO2 emissions
In both 550 and 450 policy scenarios energy efficiency and renewables account for more than 75% of total CO2 emission reductions 7
20
25
30
35
40
45
2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030
Gig
aton
nes
Reference Scenario 550 Policy Scenario 450 Policy Scenario
CCS Renewables & biofuels
Nuclear
Energy efficiency
550 Policy
Scenario
450 Policy
Scenario
54%
23%
14% 9%
[Source: WEO 2008]
Current trends in energy supply and use are patently unsustainable, economically, environmentally and socially
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8Renewable share of global electricity in WEO2008 450 policy scenario
Renewables account for 40% of global electricity in 2030
[Source: WEO 2008]
0%
25%
50%
75%
100%
2006 2030
Wind
Other Renewables
Biomass & Waste
Hydro
Nuclear
Gas
Oil
Coal
41%
19%
2%
6%
22%
18%
20%
5%
9%
21%
16%
15%
1% 1%
4%18%
40%
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20/20/20 Targets by 2020 and burden sharing 10% of energy from RE in transport
The Challenge: EU Targets
[Data Source: RES EU Directive Proposal, 2008 ]
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Indicative RES-E target: 34% by 2020 [PRIMES Policy Scenario]
Current Trends in EU27 - Electricity
[Data Source: Reference Scenario
WEO 2008]
2006 2020 2030 Ann ual Growth (%)
Total Generation (TWh)
3316 3885 4158 0.9
RES-E Gener. (TWh) 491 1074 1375 4.4
Effective and efficient policies are needed to achieve the objective
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Comparative assessment of effectiveness and efficiency of renewables support policies in OECD countries plus Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa (BRICS)
Chosen policy effectiveness indicator on a yearly basis:
Global Renewable Energy Markets and Policies Programme (GREMPP)
Incremental RE generation in a given
year
Remaining additional realisable
potential (by 2020)
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8Achieved (2005) and Additional realisable mid-term potential (2020) for RES-Electricity
Achieved (2005) and additional realisable mid-term (up to 2020) potential for RES-Electricity by country (OECD+BRICS) – in absolute
terms (TWh)
0
500
1000
1500
2000U
SA
Can
ada
Mex
ico
Japa
n
Kor
ea
Aus
tral
ia
New
Zea
land
Icel
and
Nor
way
Sw
itzer
land
Tur
key
Rus
sia
Chi
na
Indi
a
Bra
zil
Sou
th A
fric
a
EU
27
Rea
lisab
le R
ES
-Ele
ctri
city
_ g
ener
atio
n p
ote
nti
al u
p t
o 2
020
[TW
h/y
ear] Additional potential
up to 2020
Achieved potential2005
Source: IEA & EEG, 2008
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Effectiveness IndicatorWind on-shore Average 2000-05 vs. average 2004-05
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
AU
T
BE
L
CZ
E
DE
U
DN
K
ES
P
FIN
FR
A
GB
R
GR
C
HU
N
IRL
ITA
LUX
NLD
PO
L
PR
T
SV
K
SW
E
AU
S
CA
N
CH
E
ISL
JPN
KO
R
ME
X
NO
R
NZ
L
TU
R
US
A
BR
A
CH
N
IND
RU
S
ZA
F
Eff
ectiv
enes
s in
dica
tor -
Win
d on
shor
e -
Average effectiveness indicator 2000-2005
Average effectiveness indicator 2004/2005
Feed-in tarif f Quota / TGC Tender Tax incentives / Investment grants
OECD - EU
Other OECD BRICS
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8Effectiveness & EfficiencyWind On-shore 2005 (OECD & BRICS)
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
0,00 2,00 4,00 6,00 8,00 10,00 12,00 14,00 16,00 18,00
Annualised renumeration in [US cent / kWh]
Eff
ectiv
enes
s in
dica
tor
2004
/200
5
EU Countries Non EU OECD BRICS EU Countries Non EU OECD BRICS
X
Y
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8Effectiveness & EfficiencyWind On-shore 2005 (OECD & BRICS)
Source: IEA & Fh-ISI, 2008
DEU
ESP
IRL
PRT
NLD
AUT
LUX
JPN
KOR
ITAGBRIND
BELUSA
AUSSWE
NZL
POLFRANOR
CHN
BRA FINTURRUS ZAF MEX
-2%
0%
2%
4%
6%
8%
10%
12%
14%
16%
18%
20%
0.00 2.00 4.00 6.00 8.00 10.00 12.00 14.00 16.00 18.00
Eff
ect
ive
ne
ss in
dic
ato
r 20
04
/20
05
Annualised remuneration in [US cent / kWh]
OECD - EU Other OECD BRICS
Long-term predictable incentives(FIT or FIP)
+Appropriate framework
Higher risk (TGC)+
Non-economic barriers
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Effective policies only in a limited set of countries Sometimes depending on specific technology
Perceived risk, more than profit, is key to policy effectiveness & efficiency
Price support can not be adequately addressed in isolation; non-economic barriers must be addressed concurrently Grid barriers Administrative barriers Social acceptance issues Other barriers (e.g. training, information, financial, etc.)
Effective systems have, in practice, frequently been the most cost efficient
Move beyond ‘FIT vs TGC’ debate Both systems show success and failures depending on
specific country framework and/or technology
Main Lessons Learnt
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8Recent TrendsPolicy Effectiveness IndicatorWind and PV
[Data Sources: IEA Deploying Renewables and Renewables Information, 2008 ]
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8Recent TrendsNon-Hydro Renewable Electricity
[Data Sources: IEA Renewables Information, 2008 ]
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1. Remove non-economic barriers to improve market functioning
2. Establish predictable support framework - to attract investments
3. Set up transitional incentives decreasing over time – to foster and monitor technological innovation and move towards market competitiveness
4. Ensure specific support in function of technology maturity to exploit potential of large RET range
5. With increasing mass-scale RET penetration impact on overall energy system must be taken into account
Continuity
Certainty
Key Principles for Effective Renewable Energy Policies
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8Fostering RE’s transition towards mass market integration
Niche markets Mass market
Low cost-gap
(e.g. wind onshore)
High cost-gap
(e.g. PV)
Mature tech
(e.g. hydro)
Prototype & demo stage
(e.g. 2nd gen biofuels)
Time
Mar
ket D
eplo
ymen
t
Development
1. Development
RD&D financing,
capital cost support,
investment tax credits, rebates,
loan guarantees
4. Technology-neutral competition TGC, Carbon trading (e.g. EU ETS)
[Source: Adapted from IEA Deploying Renewables, 2008 ]
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Impacts of the crisis
10% of global energy
infrastructure spend
But the top-line hides what is happening in the past few
quarters
5x increase from low level
by around between 2004
and 2007
5% Growth
59% Growth
58% Growth
68% Growth
$35bn
2004
$60bn
2005
$93bn
2006
$148bn
2007
$155bn
2008
Source: New Energy Finance, 2009
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RE policy framework is improving in several EU countries, including Italy
However, additional efforts needed to achieve targets and improve effectiveness and cost-efficiency
Recognise major potential of RETs
Focus on coherent implementation of key policy design principles
Address non-economic barriers, in particular in the current economic downturn conjuncture
Conclusions
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Economic crisis must not make us lose focus on long-term goal of a more secure and sustainable energy future
Energy technology is key to this future
An integrated and strategic policy approach is required that bridges the short to the long-term Initial emphasis on energy efficiency Roadmaps and international co-operation Increasing RD&D funding for new technologies Tailored deployment policies, including for
renewables
Clean Energy New Deal can provide win-win benefits
Recommendations
Nobuo Tanaka, IEA Executive Director
G8 Environment Ministers meeting, Siracusa, Italy22 April, 2009
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