recession : seizing the opportunities : how to emerge a winner in bad times
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8/10/2019 Recession : Seizing The Opportunities : How to Emerge A Winner in Bad Times
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Recession : What Actually Went
Wrong?
Now that the Asian Financial bubble hasburst, the emperors of the regions
economies discover that they have noclothes
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ASIAN FINANCIAL BUBBLE
Flotation of the Thai Bath
on July 2, 1997
Philipines peso floated on
July 11
Malaysian Ringgit
depreciate on July 14
Rupiah fall sharply on July
21, followed by the Korean
Won
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ASIAN FINANCIAL BUBBLE
Massive capital outflow
Financial turmoil
The financial woes left thegovernment with no choice
but to seek assistence from
the International Monetary
Fund (IMF)
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Philipines
Before devaluation, it was 26
peso to US$ 1.
After crisis: 40 peso to US$ 1
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Indonesia
Violent upheaval
Anti-government demonstration
Unleased widespread public anger that ousted an omnipotent
leader of 30 years from office to disgrace
Saddled with US$43b in public and private debt and an 80%
drop in the rupiahs value against the US dollar, Indonesia
degenerated into south east asiasworst-hit economy
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South Korea
Saddled with a massive US$57b in public andprivate debt, the contagion quickly plunged theeconomy on a rollercoaster ride to an economic
nightmare Rising inflation, mass unemployment, widespread
labour unrest that threatens to shutdown plants,a devastated economy, and the full impart of its
worst economic crises.
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Malaysia
Up to 1996 real GDP growth averaging 8.7% annually with low inflation at
about 3.8%
Ringgit depreciation. Before : RM2.5 to US$ 1
January 7, 1998 : RM4.88 to US$ 1
September 1, 1998 : RM3.80 to US$ 1 (Imposition of the administrativeexchange control measures)
Stock Market Volatility:
February 25, 1997 : 1.271 points
January 12, 1998 : 477 points (lost about 800 points or 63%)
Market Capitalization: February, 1997 : RM917b
January 12, 1998 : RM308.69b
Property sector crisis, rising vacancies and falling prices.
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Dont Blame Me, Please.
The root cause of the crisisis
reduced to buzzwords like cronycapitalism, corruption, and nepotism
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CURRENCY TURMOIL
The regional economies share some
characteristics that increase the countries
vulnerability to the intense financial cruch and
the aftershocks.
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EAST ASIAN CRISIS shows:
The current problems are linked to private sectorborrowings, especially short-term external borrowings,rather than public sector deficits
The affected economies suffer the misallocation ofinvestment resources rather than over consumption
The affected countries seem to be in a state ofstubborn denial, a reluctance by the leadership to facethe music
The underlying problems underpinning the regionaleconomies trigger a crisis of confidence, both real andperceived
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Even prior to the downturn, there were some disturbing signs in
the Malaysian economy. The country sees:
That the economic growth was above potential output since 1991. Instead ofimprovements to efficiency, growth was primarily brought about throughaugmenting input, a situation clearly not sustainable in the longer term,especially when a significant proportion of these inputs, both capital andlabour, was imported.
That the use of capital, during the last three years, has been increasinglyinefficient, especially invesments into capital-intensive projects with longgestation period, leakages and initially underutilized capacity
That the economy ran into current account deficit problems because of thehigh the high investment rate and declining in capital usage
That there was excessive credit expansion to non-tradable sectors. Banks lent
too much to an overheated property market. Loans to the property sectorgrew above 30 % (year-on-year) for most of 1997 and amounted to 26% oftotal loans. And loans for investments in the stock market, which had becomehighly speculative, during 1993-1997 grew an average of 35% per annum
That there are certain inherent weakness in our macroeconomic fundamental
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FORCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL
SPECULATION (MALAYSIA)
Political stability and strong leadership to put thenations economy back on track
Malaysia has succesfully transformed its economy froma traditional primary producer into a modern and fairlysophisticated industrialized economy
Sovereign credit outlook is the relatively low level ofsovereign debt, including external and domestic debt
Good track of fiscal prudence:
A sizeable group of middle-class entrepreuneurs.
Malaysia is a resource-rich country
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NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN(THE PLAN)
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NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN
Providing a prognosis of the cause and effect of thecrisis
Provides a platform to addres the underlying problems(both real and perceived) that had set off the financial
storm A framework to counter the negative effects of the
financial turmoil
Wide-ranging policy reforms for national economicrecovery as well as concrete proposals for actionincluding the need to bring stability to ringgit
Restore confidence and revitalize the financial and realsector
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Fighting the Unknown
They are everywhere and nowhere
They are everybody as well as nobody
They are friends cum foesWe know them yet not
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LESSONS TO BE LEARNT
Confidence. Once the perception of stability is removed, rationalitygives away to panic, herd behaviour and paranoid seizure
The crisis could actually bring abaout a creative destruction that willcleanse society of corruption, croniysm and nepotism
How important it is to have a sound financial system
The crisis provides a timely period to implement a framework toaddres problems which went unchecked during the 10 last years ofgrowth and prosperity and wide-ranging policy reforms towardseconomic revival
That a financial crisis in one country has the tendency to spread to
its neighbour as well Instead of continous tirades and emotional outbursts which make
the hole bigger, a calculated response, which serves the samepurpose and with less damage, is better strategy in crisismanagement
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10 Tactics to Keep You Afloat
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Success is not a miracle.
We have to make it happen.
You are entitled think that
because of you, the worldwas created.
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The Golden Rule
Success begins with you!
The golden rule is a great rule for
living and winning.
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Principle One :
Your Fate Is In Your Hand
Success is not a miracle.
It is available to anyone
who is willing to make it happen.
The man who wins is
the man who thinks he can.
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Trail of success Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865)Age Record
22 Failure at business
23 Failure at election to Legislature
24 Failure at business again26 Death of sweetheart
27 Nervous breakdown
29 Failure at election for Speaker
34 Failure at election for Congress
39 Failure at election for Congress46 Failure at election for the Senate
47 Failure at election for the Vice-President
49 Failure at election for the Senate
51 Success at election for the President of the United States
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Natural talents, great ability and a good
education will not guarantee success.
Success in any calling begins with you.
You are the starting point of all success.
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Principle Two :
The Human Mind
is the Home of
All Possibilities
The mind is the foundation stone of all success.
The mind is the home of all possibilities. It canreap success, happiness, love, peace of mind,material wealth and anything a person desire.
Success in any calling is the result of exercisingabsolute control over ones power of thought. To
use this power effectively, one must think.
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The quest for success begins
with a well-conceived goal.
To ensure success, your thought must befollowed by definite action, carefully planned,
and persistently carried out after conditioningyour mind for success and believing that you willattaint it.
The mind is the single most powerful weapon aperson has in his qauest for success.
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Principle Three :
Every Success is First A Dream
Any goal you persue can be challenging if you letyour imaginative power unfold and come alive.
Hope is the dream of a waking man.
The power of hope gives rise to faith,
faith into determination, and
determination into action.
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The difference between getting somewhere and
nowhere consists of four simple words :
Dream and Follow Through
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Principle Four :
Every Loss
Carries A Benefit
The important facts of life:
1. There is a wheel of fate on which the affairs of
man revolve, and its mechanism is such that itprevents any man from being alwaysfortunate. Life is a cycle of varying events,fortunes and misfortunates.
2. Misfortune in some form inevitably overtakeseach and everyone of us to one time oranother.
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3. All misfortunes are temporary.There is no such thing as a
permanent loss.4. People seldom find themselves
until they have been awakenedby some form of misfortune.
It is often difficult to us to
recognize the potential of turning
loss into benefit in adversity whilewe are still bleeding from the
wounds. The important lesson is to
seek victory in defeat.
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Principle Five :
Most Obstacles To Success Are
Self-Made
One of the most common causes of failure ispurposeless aimlessness, failure to set a worthwhile
goal in life.
Success is impossible without single-mindedness ofpurpose, no matter what ones aim in life may be.
How you see your life is how you will live it. Youcreate your own reality.
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Most decisions of unsuccessful people are
founded on insignificant facts, biased opinions,
egotism, fear, emotion, and worthlessspeculation.
Success can not be founded on too many awrong decision.
Most successful people maintain apositive mental attitude.
Life is all about having faith in
oneself.
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Fortune favours those who are
constantly improving
themselves, as success willalways be measured by the
task, both qualitatively and
quantitatively, performed.
Anyone seeking success must
cultivate self-strengthening
values to strengthen thehuman spirit.
He knows that life is preparing
him for bigger challenges.
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Principle Six :
A Temporary Defeat is Never Fatal
Most people suffer from the general
misconception that anything that stands in their
way is necessarily bad. They fail to differentiate
beween temporary defeat and failure. They fail to appreciate that an occasional mistake
is a price of progress.
There is no shame in having fallen. There is only shame is
not standing up to stage another fight.
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Once a person is fully committed to
his specific goal, his spirit becomesunshakable.
Temporary defeat is lifes
message that to succeed, wejust have to get up one more
time than we fall down.
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Principle Seven :
Your Hidden Treasure Are Under Your Feet
Man, as an ecnomic, social and physicologicalbeing, often consider the fullfilment of hisphysical and material needs as the most
important in life.
Life is full of people who have more than theyknow what to do with.
To enjoy what we have is more important thanhow much we have.
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Be grateful for the countless
blessings you are alreadypossess.
Your hidden treasures,
when placed in proper
perspective, can make you
reach for the starts.
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Success in not to be adequated with material
wealth alone, it is believing in yourself and
others around you, striving hard to achieve yourgoal, growing in body and spirit in your
endeavour, partaking fully of life and
contributing meaningfully to society.
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Principle Eight :
Everything Bows To
A Positive Mind Even Success
The power to condition our mind into any mental attitudewe wish can be used most effectively to chart our earthly
destiny.
A positive mind is the starting point of
all success.
A positive mind generates faith, personal initiative,discipline, single-mindedness of purpose, enthusiasm,strength and an indefeasible will.
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A positive person lives each day
with zest and enthusiasm.
A positive mind knows that there is
much strength in times of failure as in times ofsuccess.
Most successful men found their place in his worldbecause of having been forced to struggle.
A person with a positive mental attitude surchargeshis positive forces into a dynamic and winningpersonality.
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Principle Nine :
Collective Efforts
Produce Greater Results
There is great strength in pooling all our
resources together with others and march armin arm into the battlefield of life. The fight, no
doubt, will easier.
One of the most valuable lessons in life one can
learn is the art of using the knowledge and
experience of others.
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A decision based on emotion is seldom accurate.
Team work is the thing that wins.
The team that fails to win is the one that strays
from this principle. It is the same in the greatgame of life.
When resources are combined,the possibilities are endless.
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Principle Ten :
There Can Be No Success
Without Lasting Happiness
Success is double-edges sword which cuts both
ways.
Success in any calling is attained by paying a fair
and justified price, and not any price.
Nobody gets away with anything.
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Wealth is not making money, but in making theman while he is making money.
Life does not cheat. It pays every man exactlywhat he has earned.
The most important single ingredient in a lifeworth living is honestly in word, thought anddeed.
Success comes when a persons work and wordsare of benefit to him or others.
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There can be no success without lasting
happiness and no man can be happy dispensing
wilful injustices to others.
Success shows the greatest respect for a person
with a sound character for in the final analysis, apersons supreme worth is measured, not by
what he has, but, by what he is.
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A person with a sound character believes:
In the sacradness of a promise.
In the dignity of labour, both with the head
and the hand.
That the pursuit of prosperity must always be
balanced by a profound concern for socialjustice and equity.
That the world owes no man a living.
That thrift is a requisite of a sound financial
structure, whether in business or personal
affairs.
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That the rendering of useful service to others
is the common duty of mankind.
That right is might, might is not right. Andevery right implies a responsibility.
In the ethics of punctuality and the culture of
pursuing knowledge. That character, not material wealth or power
or position, is the supreme worth of a person.
SO LONG FAILURE HELLO SUCCESS
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SO LONG, FAILURE:HELLO, SUCCESS
TheWindow of Opportunitiesalways exists
Wahateverthe Circumstances
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RECESSION
- DISCOURAGED
- DISAPPOINTED- SELF DOUBTED
- PESSIMISM
INCOMPLETE SUCCES- NO SERIOUS EFFORT
- NO SINCERE TRY
HOPELESSSITUATION
GROWNHOPELESS
PEOPLE
WEAK PEOPLE
ALIBI
COVERED
SHORTCOMINGS
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KEEP FAITH,HONEST, DOING
BEST, SOFTENDISAPOINTEMENT,
MINIMIZEHARDSHIPSA
FORTUNES
MISFORTUNES
SAD
HAPPY
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WEI-CHI
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LIFE IS CORNUCOPIA OF
OPPORTUNITIES
What is success??
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What is success??
Its All About Adaption
Whatever Circumstances
Courage to open opportunities Window
Useful Reaction
Constructive way
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LIFES GREAT LESSONS:
How to make Judicious Adjusments, Correction and Change
to avoid permanent damage
FOOLTHINKS HIMSELF
IS THE MOST
DOESNT KNOW
HIMSELF
BLESSEDSEE HIS FAULTS,
SHORTCOMINGS,
WEAKNESS ANDIMPERFECTION
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Honesty
Effort
Innovative Change
Productive
Commitment
SO..
HOW TO BE A WINNER
WINNER LAY A SOLID STONES
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WINNER LAY A SOLID STONES
FOUNDATION
1. Financial discipline
2. Financial independence
3. Habit of frugality4. Health
5. Family harmony
6. Competitive advantage
7. Lifes nobles philosophy
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Financial Discipline
WISE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT
THE HABIT OF DEBT IS DESTRICTIVE ENEMY
ESENTIAL TECHNIQUE OF SUCCESSFUL LIVING
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Financial Independence
SUCCESS CRITERIA = FINANCIAL POWER
SIMPLE PRINCIPLE THRIFT THRIFT/SAVING
HALF OF THE ROAD TO SUCCESS
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Habit of Frugality
DONT SQUANDERING TIME AND CONTEMPTIOUS
BUDGET: TIME, INCOME, EXPENDITURE
SUPPORTING LOCAL GOODS AND INDUSTRY
RINGGIT SPENT IN MALAYSIA IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY
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Health
BODY IS PRECIOUS
BODY IS VEHICLE OF SUCCESS, BROKEN=WORTHLESS
HEALTHY PHISICAL, HEATHLY MENTAL
WELL MANAGED LIFE
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Family Harmony
MOST IMPORTANT PART
FAMILY=WHERE WE ARE BUILT
HAPPY HOME IS FERTILE GROUND OF SUCCESS
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Competitive Advantage
Improve
- doesnt wish to be left
Skill is Investment
Upgrading ourself
- Mind
- Knowledge
- skill
Give more than the best
Succes is measured by:
- Qualitative
- Quantitative
Performance
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Lifes Nobles Philosophy
We serve ourselves best when we serve others most
Success arent self made
No parasitical belief
Helping each other
Dont concern in winning praises
The joy of giving, based on sincere desire to be usefulto others
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LEARNING HOW MONEY TALKS:
YOUR FINANCIAL BATTLE PLAN
TheGreatest Riskis the Opportunity Lost by
Staying Away
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MONEY
RepresentImportant factor in life
SUCCESS IS NOT ONLY MEASURED BY MATERIAL
BUT
MONEY INFLUENCE EVERYTHING WE DO
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HOW DO WE CAN MAKE MONEY
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He never
doubt
Stock market
is the quickest
way to makemoney
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Genius:-Wise long
term investing
-Patience
-Self discipline
-Rationality-Inner resolve
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CONFIDENCE
PESSIMISM
FEAR
OWN JUDGEMENT
CAREFULLY ANALYSING
BOOST POOL OF WEALTH
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MODE OF INVESTMENT AMOUNT OF INVESTMENT RETURN OF INVESTMENT
Xs Banks ICULS RM25,000 buys 100,000
units of ICULS
RM0,25 per unit, pays 7,5%
per annum
(100,000 x 7.5%)
RM7,500
Banks Fixed Deposit RM25,000 in fixed deposit
at 7% per annum
RM1,750
Extra bundle RM5,750
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Sectors facing most downward pressure:
Retail and office sector
Resort sector
High end residential sector
Indistrial sector
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NO REASON TOBE
DISCOURAGED
WORD FULL OFOPPORTUNITIES
WORD FULL OFREGARDLESS
SUCCEEDS FAILS
DEPEND ON
CHARACTER PERSEVERANCE INTELLIGENCE CAPACITY HARDWORK
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Which you are tending?Happy result of the economic slowdown is that prices ofmany items have become low
Household must be more conservative
High level savings Curb inflation
Points of economic management
Holyfield has not been afraid of Tyson
Himself is tougher enemy
Friend lost job, but now she is her own boss in catering
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Which you are tending?A housewife now can make the members of family as ateam production
Lucky lady
Franchise holder, get up when he got flu, in badsituation he has to presenting to secured the franchise.
AS LONG AS WE ARE ALIVE,
WE WILL SURVIVE
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Drastic Situation Calls For Drastic
Measure
Malaysias actionshave been
described as taking the bull by thehorns and defying conventional wisdom
4 SALIENT FEATURE TO FIX THE EXCHANGE
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4 SALIENT FEATURE TO FIX THE EXCHANGE
RATE AND REFLATE THE ECONOMY
The ringgit is pegged to the US dollar at RM3.80 The domestic access to foreign exchange is
severely curtailed
All offshore transactions in ringgit are prohibited
and payments for all exports and imports are tobe conducted in foreign exchange
Receipts in ringgit from capital accounttransactions, other than foreign direct
investment, must remain in Malaysia for one yearbefore eligible for repatriation by foreigninvestors
There are signs that the tide is turning
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There are signs that the tide is turning
in Malaysias Favour The trade balance is improving. Surplus of RM6.3m in August, 1998
compared with a surplus of RM1.15b in the same month last year.
As at mid-September 1998, international reserves stood atUS$21.3b (RM80.94), sufficient to finance 3.7months of retainedimport
Deposits in external accounts have increased from RM9.1b at theend of August 1998 to RM12.6b as at September 22, 1998 as aresult of repatriation of deposits kept abroad
As a result of the recent measures to reclassify the non performingloans to six months, the non performing loans are expected todecline from RM66.8b to RM40.8b
Composite index on a strong up-trend from September 2 toSeptember 7, 1998 to close at 445.06, a surge of almost 50%
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WHO DARES, WINS
There is, ofcourse, one surewayto avoid risk:
Do nothing, Risk nothing and Be nothing
EVEN IS BESTTIMES, WE FACEIMPERFECTION
WORLD
ACCEPTINGCHALENGES
UNFORTUNATEFATE
THERE IS GENIUS
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WAITING TO BEMADE
NEED TO BECORRECTED
THERE IS GENIUS
POWER MAGIC
IN YOU
PLANNINGTO FAIL
FAIL TOPLAN
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PERFECTCONDITION
MAKE THE BESTOF SITUATION
DEAL WITH IT AND
MOVE ON
HOPELESSSITUATION
PEOPLE WHOHAVE GROWN
HOPELESS
LEARN IT AND GO ON
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