recession : seizing the opportunities : how to emerge a winner in bad times

8/10/2019 Recession : Seizing The Opportunities : How to Emerge A Winner in Bad Times

1/85


2/85

Recession : What Actually Went

Wrong?

Now that the Asian Financial bubble hasburst, the emperors of the regions

economies discover that they have noclothes


3/85

ASIAN FINANCIAL BUBBLE

Flotation of the Thai Bath

on July 2, 1997

Philipines peso floated on

July 11

Malaysian Ringgit

depreciate on July 14

Rupiah fall sharply on July

21, followed by the Korean

Won


4/85

ASIAN FINANCIAL BUBBLE

Massive capital outflow

Financial turmoil

The financial woes left thegovernment with no choice

but to seek assistence from

the International Monetary

Fund (IMF)


5/85

Philipines

Before devaluation, it was 26

peso to US$ 1.

After crisis: 40 peso to US$ 1


6/85

Indonesia

Violent upheaval

Anti-government demonstration

Unleased widespread public anger that ousted an omnipotent

leader of 30 years from office to disgrace

Saddled with US$43b in public and private debt and an 80%

drop in the rupiahs value against the US dollar, Indonesia

degenerated into south east asiasworst-hit economy


7/85

South Korea

Saddled with a massive US$57b in public andprivate debt, the contagion quickly plunged theeconomy on a rollercoaster ride to an economic

nightmare Rising inflation, mass unemployment, widespread

labour unrest that threatens to shutdown plants,a devastated economy, and the full impart of its

worst economic crises.


8/85

Malaysia

Up to 1996 real GDP growth averaging 8.7% annually with low inflation at

about 3.8%

Ringgit depreciation. Before : RM2.5 to US$ 1

January 7, 1998 : RM4.88 to US$ 1

September 1, 1998 : RM3.80 to US$ 1 (Imposition of the administrativeexchange control measures)

Stock Market Volatility:

February 25, 1997 : 1.271 points

January 12, 1998 : 477 points (lost about 800 points or 63%)

Market Capitalization: February, 1997 : RM917b

January 12, 1998 : RM308.69b

Property sector crisis, rising vacancies and falling prices.


9/85

Dont Blame Me, Please.

The root cause of the crisisis

reduced to buzzwords like cronycapitalism, corruption, and nepotism


10/85

CURRENCY TURMOIL

The regional economies share some

characteristics that increase the countries

vulnerability to the intense financial cruch and

the aftershocks.


11/85

EAST ASIAN CRISIS shows:

The current problems are linked to private sectorborrowings, especially short-term external borrowings,rather than public sector deficits

The affected economies suffer the misallocation ofinvestment resources rather than over consumption

The affected countries seem to be in a state ofstubborn denial, a reluctance by the leadership to facethe music

The underlying problems underpinning the regionaleconomies trigger a crisis of confidence, both real andperceived


12/85

Even prior to the downturn, there were some disturbing signs in

the Malaysian economy. The country sees:

That the economic growth was above potential output since 1991. Instead ofimprovements to efficiency, growth was primarily brought about throughaugmenting input, a situation clearly not sustainable in the longer term,especially when a significant proportion of these inputs, both capital andlabour, was imported.

That the use of capital, during the last three years, has been increasinglyinefficient, especially invesments into capital-intensive projects with longgestation period, leakages and initially underutilized capacity

That the economy ran into current account deficit problems because of thehigh the high investment rate and declining in capital usage

That there was excessive credit expansion to non-tradable sectors. Banks lent

too much to an overheated property market. Loans to the property sectorgrew above 30 % (year-on-year) for most of 1997 and amounted to 26% oftotal loans. And loans for investments in the stock market, which had becomehighly speculative, during 1993-1997 grew an average of 35% per annum

That there are certain inherent weakness in our macroeconomic fundamental


13/85

FORCE THE GLOBAL FINANCIAL

SPECULATION (MALAYSIA)

Political stability and strong leadership to put thenations economy back on track

Malaysia has succesfully transformed its economy froma traditional primary producer into a modern and fairlysophisticated industrialized economy

Sovereign credit outlook is the relatively low level ofsovereign debt, including external and domestic debt

Good track of fiscal prudence:

A sizeable group of middle-class entrepreuneurs.

Malaysia is a resource-rich country


14/85

NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN(THE PLAN)


15/85

NATIONAL ECONOMIC RECOVERY PLAN

Providing a prognosis of the cause and effect of thecrisis

Provides a platform to addres the underlying problems(both real and perceived) that had set off the financial

storm A framework to counter the negative effects of the

financial turmoil

Wide-ranging policy reforms for national economicrecovery as well as concrete proposals for actionincluding the need to bring stability to ringgit

Restore confidence and revitalize the financial and realsector


16/85

Fighting the Unknown

They are everywhere and nowhere

They are everybody as well as nobody

They are friends cum foesWe know them yet not


17/85

LESSONS TO BE LEARNT

Confidence. Once the perception of stability is removed, rationalitygives away to panic, herd behaviour and paranoid seizure

The crisis could actually bring abaout a creative destruction that willcleanse society of corruption, croniysm and nepotism

How important it is to have a sound financial system

The crisis provides a timely period to implement a framework toaddres problems which went unchecked during the 10 last years ofgrowth and prosperity and wide-ranging policy reforms towardseconomic revival

That a financial crisis in one country has the tendency to spread to

its neighbour as well Instead of continous tirades and emotional outbursts which make

the hole bigger, a calculated response, which serves the samepurpose and with less damage, is better strategy in crisismanagement


18/85

10 Tactics to Keep You Afloat


19/85

Success is not a miracle.

We have to make it happen.

You are entitled think that

because of you, the worldwas created.
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20/85

The Golden Rule

Success begins with you!

The golden rule is a great rule for

living and winning.
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21/85

Principle One :

Your Fate Is In Your Hand

Success is not a miracle.

It is available to anyone

who is willing to make it happen.

The man who wins is

the man who thinks he can.
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22/85

Trail of success Abraham Lincoln (1809-1865)Age Record

22 Failure at business

23 Failure at election to Legislature

24 Failure at business again26 Death of sweetheart

27 Nervous breakdown

29 Failure at election for Speaker

34 Failure at election for Congress

39 Failure at election for Congress46 Failure at election for the Senate

47 Failure at election for the Vice-President

49 Failure at election for the Senate

51 Success at election for the President of the United States


23/85

Natural talents, great ability and a good

education will not guarantee success.

Success in any calling begins with you.

You are the starting point of all success.


24/85

Principle Two :

The Human Mind

is the Home of

All Possibilities

The mind is the foundation stone of all success.

The mind is the home of all possibilities. It canreap success, happiness, love, peace of mind,material wealth and anything a person desire.

Success in any calling is the result of exercisingabsolute control over ones power of thought. To

use this power effectively, one must think.


25/85

The quest for success begins

with a well-conceived goal.

To ensure success, your thought must befollowed by definite action, carefully planned,

and persistently carried out after conditioningyour mind for success and believing that you willattaint it.

The mind is the single most powerful weapon aperson has in his qauest for success.


26/85


27/85

Principle Three :

Every Success is First A Dream

Any goal you persue can be challenging if you letyour imaginative power unfold and come alive.

Hope is the dream of a waking man.

The power of hope gives rise to faith,

faith into determination, and

determination into action.


28/85

The difference between getting somewhere and

nowhere consists of four simple words :

Dream and Follow Through


29/85

Principle Four :

Every Loss

Carries A Benefit

The important facts of life:

1. There is a wheel of fate on which the affairs of

man revolve, and its mechanism is such that itprevents any man from being alwaysfortunate. Life is a cycle of varying events,fortunes and misfortunates.

2. Misfortune in some form inevitably overtakeseach and everyone of us to one time oranother.


30/85

3. All misfortunes are temporary.There is no such thing as a

permanent loss.4. People seldom find themselves

until they have been awakenedby some form of misfortune.

It is often difficult to us to

recognize the potential of turning

loss into benefit in adversity whilewe are still bleeding from the

wounds. The important lesson is to

seek victory in defeat.


31/85


32/85

Principle Five :

Most Obstacles To Success Are

Self-Made

One of the most common causes of failure ispurposeless aimlessness, failure to set a worthwhile

goal in life.

Success is impossible without single-mindedness ofpurpose, no matter what ones aim in life may be.

How you see your life is how you will live it. Youcreate your own reality.


33/85

Most decisions of unsuccessful people are

founded on insignificant facts, biased opinions,

egotism, fear, emotion, and worthlessspeculation.

Success can not be founded on too many awrong decision.

Most successful people maintain apositive mental attitude.

Life is all about having faith in

oneself.


34/85

Fortune favours those who are

constantly improving

themselves, as success willalways be measured by the

task, both qualitatively and

quantitatively, performed.

Anyone seeking success must

cultivate self-strengthening

values to strengthen thehuman spirit.

He knows that life is preparing

him for bigger challenges.


35/85

Principle Six :

A Temporary Defeat is Never Fatal

Most people suffer from the general

misconception that anything that stands in their

way is necessarily bad. They fail to differentiate

beween temporary defeat and failure. They fail to appreciate that an occasional mistake

is a price of progress.

There is no shame in having fallen. There is only shame is

not standing up to stage another fight.


36/85

Once a person is fully committed to

his specific goal, his spirit becomesunshakable.

Temporary defeat is lifes

message that to succeed, wejust have to get up one more

time than we fall down.


37/85

Principle Seven :

Your Hidden Treasure Are Under Your Feet

Man, as an ecnomic, social and physicologicalbeing, often consider the fullfilment of hisphysical and material needs as the most

important in life.

Life is full of people who have more than theyknow what to do with.

To enjoy what we have is more important thanhow much we have.


38/85

Be grateful for the countless

blessings you are alreadypossess.

Your hidden treasures,

when placed in proper

perspective, can make you

reach for the starts.


39/85

Success in not to be adequated with material

wealth alone, it is believing in yourself and

others around you, striving hard to achieve yourgoal, growing in body and spirit in your

endeavour, partaking fully of life and

contributing meaningfully to society.


40/85

Principle Eight :

Everything Bows To

A Positive Mind Even Success

The power to condition our mind into any mental attitudewe wish can be used most effectively to chart our earthly

destiny.

A positive mind is the starting point of

all success.

A positive mind generates faith, personal initiative,discipline, single-mindedness of purpose, enthusiasm,strength and an indefeasible will.
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41/85

A positive person lives each day

with zest and enthusiasm.

A positive mind knows that there is

much strength in times of failure as in times ofsuccess.

Most successful men found their place in his worldbecause of having been forced to struggle.

A person with a positive mental attitude surchargeshis positive forces into a dynamic and winningpersonality.
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42/85

Principle Nine :

Collective Efforts

Produce Greater Results

There is great strength in pooling all our

resources together with others and march armin arm into the battlefield of life. The fight, no

doubt, will easier.

One of the most valuable lessons in life one can

learn is the art of using the knowledge and

experience of others.
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43/85

A decision based on emotion is seldom accurate.

Team work is the thing that wins.

The team that fails to win is the one that strays

from this principle. It is the same in the greatgame of life.

When resources are combined,the possibilities are endless.


44/85

Principle Ten :

There Can Be No Success

Without Lasting Happiness

Success is double-edges sword which cuts both

ways.

Success in any calling is attained by paying a fair

and justified price, and not any price.

Nobody gets away with anything.


45/85

Wealth is not making money, but in making theman while he is making money.

Life does not cheat. It pays every man exactlywhat he has earned.

The most important single ingredient in a lifeworth living is honestly in word, thought anddeed.

Success comes when a persons work and wordsare of benefit to him or others.


46/85

There can be no success without lasting

happiness and no man can be happy dispensing

wilful injustices to others.

Success shows the greatest respect for a person

with a sound character for in the final analysis, apersons supreme worth is measured, not by

what he has, but, by what he is.


47/85

A person with a sound character believes:

In the sacradness of a promise.

In the dignity of labour, both with the head

and the hand.

That the pursuit of prosperity must always be

balanced by a profound concern for socialjustice and equity.

That the world owes no man a living.

That thrift is a requisite of a sound financial

structure, whether in business or personal

affairs.


48/85

That the rendering of useful service to others

is the common duty of mankind.

That right is might, might is not right. Andevery right implies a responsibility.

In the ethics of punctuality and the culture of

pursuing knowledge. That character, not material wealth or power

or position, is the supreme worth of a person.

SO LONG FAILURE HELLO SUCCESS


49/85

SO LONG, FAILURE:HELLO, SUCCESS

TheWindow of Opportunitiesalways exists

Wahateverthe Circumstances


50/85

RECESSION

- DISCOURAGED

- DISAPPOINTED- SELF DOUBTED

- PESSIMISM

INCOMPLETE SUCCES- NO SERIOUS EFFORT

- NO SINCERE TRY

HOPELESSSITUATION

GROWNHOPELESS

PEOPLE

WEAK PEOPLE

ALIBI

COVERED

SHORTCOMINGS


51/85

KEEP FAITH,HONEST, DOING

BEST, SOFTENDISAPOINTEMENT,

MINIMIZEHARDSHIPSA

FORTUNES

MISFORTUNES

SAD

HAPPY


52/85

WEI-CHI


53/85

LIFE IS CORNUCOPIA OF

OPPORTUNITIES

What is success??


54/85

What is success??

Its All About Adaption

Whatever Circumstances

Courage to open opportunities Window

Useful Reaction

Constructive way


55/85

LIFES GREAT LESSONS:

How to make Judicious Adjusments, Correction and Change

to avoid permanent damage

FOOLTHINKS HIMSELF

IS THE MOST

DOESNT KNOW

HIMSELF

BLESSEDSEE HIS FAULTS,

SHORTCOMINGS,

WEAKNESS ANDIMPERFECTION


56/85

Honesty

Effort

Innovative Change

Productive

Commitment

SO..

HOW TO BE A WINNER

WINNER LAY A SOLID STONES


57/85

WINNER LAY A SOLID STONES

FOUNDATION

1. Financial discipline

2. Financial independence

3. Habit of frugality4. Health

5. Family harmony

6. Competitive advantage

7. Lifes nobles philosophy


58/85

Financial Discipline

WISE FINANCIAL MANAGEMENT

THE HABIT OF DEBT IS DESTRICTIVE ENEMY

ESENTIAL TECHNIQUE OF SUCCESSFUL LIVING


59/85

Financial Independence

SUCCESS CRITERIA = FINANCIAL POWER

SIMPLE PRINCIPLE THRIFT THRIFT/SAVING

HALF OF THE ROAD TO SUCCESS


60/85

Habit of Frugality

DONT SQUANDERING TIME AND CONTEMPTIOUS

BUDGET: TIME, INCOME, EXPENDITURE

SUPPORTING LOCAL GOODS AND INDUSTRY

RINGGIT SPENT IN MALAYSIA IS THE ORDER OF THE DAY


61/85

Health

BODY IS PRECIOUS

BODY IS VEHICLE OF SUCCESS, BROKEN=WORTHLESS

HEALTHY PHISICAL, HEATHLY MENTAL

WELL MANAGED LIFE


62/85

Family Harmony

MOST IMPORTANT PART

FAMILY=WHERE WE ARE BUILT

HAPPY HOME IS FERTILE GROUND OF SUCCESS


63/85

Competitive Advantage

Improve

- doesnt wish to be left

Skill is Investment

Upgrading ourself

- Mind

- Knowledge

- skill

Give more than the best

Succes is measured by:

- Qualitative

- Quantitative

Performance


64/85

Lifes Nobles Philosophy

We serve ourselves best when we serve others most

Success arent self made

No parasitical belief

Helping each other

Dont concern in winning praises

The joy of giving, based on sincere desire to be usefulto others


65/85

LEARNING HOW MONEY TALKS:

YOUR FINANCIAL BATTLE PLAN

TheGreatest Riskis the Opportunity Lost by

Staying Away


66/85

MONEY

RepresentImportant factor in life

SUCCESS IS NOT ONLY MEASURED BY MATERIAL

BUT

MONEY INFLUENCE EVERYTHING WE DO


67/85

HOW DO WE CAN MAKE MONEY


68/85

He never

doubt

Stock market

is the quickest

way to makemoney


69/85

Genius:-Wise long

term investing

-Patience

-Self discipline

-Rationality-Inner resolve


70/85

CONFIDENCE

PESSIMISM

FEAR

OWN JUDGEMENT

CAREFULLY ANALYSING

BOOST POOL OF WEALTH


71/85

MODE OF INVESTMENT AMOUNT OF INVESTMENT RETURN OF INVESTMENT

Xs Banks ICULS RM25,000 buys 100,000

units of ICULS

RM0,25 per unit, pays 7,5%

per annum

(100,000 x 7.5%)

RM7,500

Banks Fixed Deposit RM25,000 in fixed deposit

at 7% per annum

RM1,750

Extra bundle RM5,750


72/85


73/85

Sectors facing most downward pressure:

Retail and office sector

Resort sector

High end residential sector

Indistrial sector


74/85


75/85

NO REASON TOBE

DISCOURAGED

WORD FULL OFOPPORTUNITIES

WORD FULL OFREGARDLESS

SUCCEEDS FAILS

DEPEND ON

CHARACTER PERSEVERANCE INTELLIGENCE CAPACITY HARDWORK


76/85

Which you are tending?Happy result of the economic slowdown is that prices ofmany items have become low

Household must be more conservative

High level savings Curb inflation

Points of economic management

Holyfield has not been afraid of Tyson

Himself is tougher enemy

Friend lost job, but now she is her own boss in catering


77/85

Which you are tending?A housewife now can make the members of family as ateam production

Lucky lady

Franchise holder, get up when he got flu, in badsituation he has to presenting to secured the franchise.

AS LONG AS WE ARE ALIVE,

WE WILL SURVIVE


78/85

Drastic Situation Calls For Drastic

Measure

Malaysias actionshave been

described as taking the bull by thehorns and defying conventional wisdom

4 SALIENT FEATURE TO FIX THE EXCHANGE


79/85

4 SALIENT FEATURE TO FIX THE EXCHANGE

RATE AND REFLATE THE ECONOMY

The ringgit is pegged to the US dollar at RM3.80 The domestic access to foreign exchange is

severely curtailed

All offshore transactions in ringgit are prohibited

and payments for all exports and imports are tobe conducted in foreign exchange

Receipts in ringgit from capital accounttransactions, other than foreign direct

investment, must remain in Malaysia for one yearbefore eligible for repatriation by foreigninvestors

There are signs that the tide is turning


80/85

There are signs that the tide is turning

in Malaysias Favour The trade balance is improving. Surplus of RM6.3m in August, 1998

compared with a surplus of RM1.15b in the same month last year.

As at mid-September 1998, international reserves stood atUS$21.3b (RM80.94), sufficient to finance 3.7months of retainedimport

Deposits in external accounts have increased from RM9.1b at theend of August 1998 to RM12.6b as at September 22, 1998 as aresult of repatriation of deposits kept abroad

As a result of the recent measures to reclassify the non performingloans to six months, the non performing loans are expected todecline from RM66.8b to RM40.8b

Composite index on a strong up-trend from September 2 toSeptember 7, 1998 to close at 445.06, a surge of almost 50%


81/85

WHO DARES, WINS

There is, ofcourse, one surewayto avoid risk:

Do nothing, Risk nothing and Be nothing

EVEN IS BESTTIMES, WE FACEIMPERFECTION

WORLD

ACCEPTINGCHALENGES

UNFORTUNATEFATE

THERE IS GENIUS


82/85

WAITING TO BEMADE

NEED TO BECORRECTED

THERE IS GENIUS

POWER MAGIC

IN YOU

PLANNINGTO FAIL

FAIL TOPLAN


83/85

PERFECTCONDITION

MAKE THE BESTOF SITUATION

DEAL WITH IT AND

MOVE ON

HOPELESSSITUATION

PEOPLE WHOHAVE GROWN

HOPELESS

LEARN IT AND GO ON


84/85


85/85

recession : seizing the opportunities : how to emerge a winner in bad times

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