re-integration: don't fear "closed" systems

Re-integration: Don’t fear “closed” systems

@cote

(I work at Dell, but this is my own content/opinion.) DevOpsDays Mountain View – June 29th, 2012

“There’s nothing new in IT.”

Integrated Modular

The current state of the cycle determines how you architect, build, deliver, support, and sell applications.

Mainframes to PC explosion

WinTel to iPad

(Illustrative – subject was actually using Linux.)

The Obvious One

Source: “The rise and fall of personal computing,” Horace Dediu, Jan 2012

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Finally, a successful Linux desktop

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ThinkPad + Ubuntu August, 2006

Apple + Apple Oct, 2010

The modular king goes integrated

Source: https://twitter.com/JoeTierney/status/215678004809039872/

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Integrated Servers

“IT departments spend more than 75% of their time and resources on system deployment and management. The market is in need of new modular infrastructure platforms that are capable of supporting applications connected to a large number of users and devices.”

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Dell vStart Cisco UCS IBM PureSystems HP Virtual/Cloud System

Source: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.

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Source: “Worldwide and Regional Server 2012–2016 Forecast,” IDC, May 2012

$239

$633

$0

$100

$200

$300

$400

$500

$600

$700

2010 2011

Cisco UCS Sales ($M)

(Context: 2010 server market was $53.7B, 2011 was $56.6B)

UCS sales are going crazy

Use is “low,” but near doubling

Source: “Converged Infrastructure Survey 2011,” IDC, Dec 2011.

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PaaS = + back office + ALM + delivery

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Source: Dell Corporate Strategy, Nov 2011

PaaS apps have been growing

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600,000

200,000 150,000

220,000

4,500

iOS AppEngine Heroku Force.com CloudBees

# of Apps as of Oct. 2011

For reference

Source: company websites

What’s $8B between friends? (Gratuitous analyst poking)

2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015

451 $120.00 $267.00 $444.00 $709.00 $1,137.00

Gartner (Aug 11) $330.70 $512.40 $707.40 $927.30 $1,179.60 $1,463.80 $1,755.00

Gartner (June 11) $1,300 $1,400 $1,500 $1,800 $2,000 $2,400.00

Forrester Private $31.34 $65.00 $134.34 $275.81 $558.60 $1,156.68 $2,280.03 $4,140.28

Forrester Public $49.52 $118.76 $308.02 $820.39 $2,081.09 $4,378.52 $7,391.30 $9,801.55

$0

$1,000

$2,000

$3,000

$4,000

$5,000

$6,000

$7,000

$8,000

$9,000

$10,000

($M

)

PaaS Forecast Comparisons ($M)

NOTE: Forrester is more inclusive of existing appdev/middleware TAM & SaaS take. Gartner drops forecasts between June 2011 and August 2011.

Source: analyst cloud forecasts available in 2011

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My friends suck(ed)

Web

2.0

vs.

Fac

ebo

ok

Source: Way Back Machine, flickr.com in Feb 2005

Now I suck

Web

2.0

vs.

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ok

“Walled gardens,” sure

Locked into technology stacks $$$$$$

“One throat to choke” = One BIG check to write $$$$$$

Slow access to innovation

…built on open technologies

Source: http://redmonk.com/sogrady/2012/06/13/new-relic-stack-data/

…with open APIs

Source: http://blog.programmableweb.com/2011/01/03/api-growth-doubles-in-2010-social-and-mobile-are-trends/

IT gets incrementally better

Integrated

Modular

Integrated

Closed

Open

Open-ish

Thanks! @cote

http://www.DrunkAndRetired.com

http://www.dell.com/sputnik