quantifying the decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions in europe and siberia using modeling and...

Quantifying the decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions in Europe and Siberia using modeling and atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide and methane from Alert, Canada.

D. Worthy1, E. Chan1, M. Ishizawa1, D. Chan1 & P. Bergamaschi2 & I. Levin3

1) Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Canada2) Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) Joint Research Centre European Commission Ispra, Italy3) Institut für Umweltphysik, University of Heidelberg (UHEI-IUP), Heidelberg, Germany

Alert

East Trout Lake

Egbert

Fraserdale

Estevan Pt.

Sable Is.Candle Lake

Baker Lake

Churchill

Chibougamau

Western Peatland

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

YEAR

340

350

360

370

380

390

CO

2 (p

pm)

D aily Averages Seasonal C ycle

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006

YEAR

1.74

1.76

1.78

1.80

1.82

1.84

1.86

1.88

1.90

1.92

1.94

1.96

CH

4 (p

pm)

Daily Averages Seasonal Cycle

Canada’s GHG Air Sampling Network

In situ and flask CO, CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6; Flask H2, and CO2 isotopes

Flask CO, CO2, CH4, N2O, H2, SF6 & CO2 isotopes only (Estevan Point)

Proposed CCP and IPY sites Aircraft vertical profiles (NOAA)

Alert CO2

Alert CH4

Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmosphere Watch Observatory

98.95 98.97 98.99 99.01 99.03Decimal Year

(Dec 13th 1998 to January 8th 1999)

1.85

1.90

1.95

2.00

CH

4(p

pm)

370

372

374

376

378

380

CO

2(ppm

)

0

50

100

150

200

250

BC

(ng

m-3)

377.6

374.0

1.976

1.908

Alert CO2 - Dec-Feb 1988 - 2004

Alert CH4 - Dec-Feb 1988 - 2004

25 Day Time Series

1989/1990

1997/1998

Ratio of CH4 to CO2 (Long-term trend & seasonality removed)

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20045

10

15

20

25

Slo

pe (

ppb

CH

4/ppm

CO

2)

Year

Annual Winter Mean CH4/CO

2 ratio

7: Temperate Asia

6: North Africa

5: Europe

4: Western Siberia

3: Eastern Siberia

2: Temperate NA

1: Boreal NA

9: Ocean

8: Other Land Area

Model Simulations (9 regions and 11 emission sources)

C8_10C8_9C8_8C8_7C8_6C8_5C8_4C8_3C8_2C8_1C8#8

C7_10C7_9C7_8C7_7C7_6C7_5C7_4C7_3C7_2C7_1C7#7

C9_11C9#9

C6_10C6_9C6_8C6_7C6_6C6_5C6_4C6_3C6_2C6_1C6#6

C5_10C5_9C5_8C5_7C5_6C5_5C5_4C5_3C5_2C5_1C5#5

C4_10C4_9C4_8C4_7C4_6C4_5C4_4C4_3C4_2C4_1C4#4

C3_10C3_9C3_8C3_7C3_6C3_5C3_4C3_3C3_2C3_1C3#3

C2_10C2_9C2_8C2_7C2_6C2_5C2_4C2_3C2_2C2_1C2#2

C1_10C1_9C1_8C1_7C1_6C1_5C1_4C1_3C1_2C1_1C1#1

11:

ocean

10:

soil

9:

termites

8:

wild animal

7:

wetland

6:

waste

5:

bb

4:

rice

3:

animal

2:

gas

1:

coal

All

emission

C8_10C8_9C8_8C8_7C8_6C8_5C8_4C8_3C8_2C8_1C8#8

C7_10C7_9C7_8C7_7C7_6C7_5C7_4C7_3C7_2C7_1C7#7

C9_11C9#9

C6_10C6_9C6_8C6_7C6_6C6_5C6_4C6_3C6_2C6_1C6#6

C5_10C5_9C5_8C5_7C5_6C5_5C5_4C5_3C5_2C5_1C5#5

C4_10C4_9C4_8C4_7C4_6C4_5C4_4C4_3C4_2C4_1C4#4

C3_10C3_9C3_8C3_7C3_6C3_5C3_4C3_3C3_2C3_1C3#3

C2_10C2_9C2_8C2_7C2_6C2_5C2_4C2_3C2_2C2_1C2#2

C1_10C1_9C1_8C1_7C1_6C1_5C1_4C1_3C1_2C1_1C1#1

11:

ocean

10:

soil

9:

termites

8:

wild animal

7:

wetland

6:

waste

5:

bb

4:

rice

3:

animal

2:

gas

1:

coal

All

emission

P. Bergamaschi et al. (2006:

Satellite cartography of atmospheric methane by extending the CH4 dataset retrieved from SCIAMACHY & inverse model simulations for 2003 (using NOAA flask CH4 measurements & TM5 transport model).

Atmospheric CH4 at Alert is simulated using the NIES atmospheric transport model and NCEP reanalysis meteorology

Relative CH4 contribution by region

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

O bservations

M odeled O utput

1.76

1.78

1.8

1.82

1.84

1.86

1.88

1.9

(ppb)

In situ/model CH4 comparison

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

0

10

20

30

40

50

Re

lativ

e C

ontr

ibut

ion

(pp

b)

Boreal NATem perate NAW estern S iberiaEastern S iberiaEuropeNorth A fricaTem perate AsiaO ther Land Areas

Jan. 1 to Feb. 6 1991

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

G as & O il Coal Anim alsW aste

0

5

10

15

20R

ela

tive

Con

trib

utio

n (

ppb

)

0

5

10

15

20Source Contributions from W estern S iberia

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

G as & O ilCoal Anim alsW aste

0

5

10

15

20

Re

lativ

e C

on

trib

utio

n (

ppb)

0

5

10

15

20Source Contributions from Europe

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

G as & O ilC oal Anim alsW aste

0

5

10

15

20

Re

lativ

e C

ontr

ibut

ion

(pp

b)

0

5

10

15

20Source Contributions from Tem perate Asia

Western Siberia

Temperate Asia

Europe

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

M ethane C O 2 (FF & B iospheric sources)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80M

eth

ane

Re

lativ

e C

ontr

ibut

ion

(ppb

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

CO

2 Relative

Contribution (ppm

)

Modeled CH4/CO2

comparison

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20045

10

15

20

25

Slo

pe (

ppb

CH

4/ppm

CO

2)

Year

Annual Winter Mean CH4/CO

2 ratio

1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year

M ethane C O 2 (FF & B iospheric sources)

0

10

20

30

40

50

60

70

80M

eth

ane

Re

lativ

e C

ontr

ibut

ion

(ppb

)

0

1

2

3

4

5

6

7

8

9

10

11

12

CO

2 Relative

Contribution (ppm

)

Modeled CH4/CO2

comparison

Western Siberian CH4 source change of 3.4 Tg/yr changes the ratio by 1 ppb/ppm

If change occurs only in Western Siberia this would result in a 14 Tg/yr source change

European CH4 source change of8.36 Tg/yr changes the ratio by 1 ppb/ppm

If change occurs only in Europe this would result in a 33 Tg/yr source change

1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20045

10

15

20

25

Slo

pe (

ppb

CH

4/ppm

CO

2)

Year

Observations Model

Annual Winter Mean CH4/CO

2 ratio

[M*kg/grid]

Change in anthropogenic CH4 emissions:1990-2000 (source: EDGAR)

Change in anthropogenic CH4 emissions 1990-2000 (source: EDGAR)

Europe (-14 Tg/yr) Energy : -8.1 Animal : -5.3 Waste : -0.5

W. Siberia (-2 Tg/yr) Energy : -1.6 Animal : -0.5 Waste : 0.02

E. Siberia (-0.08 Tg/yr) Energy : -0.12 Animal : 0.02 Waste : 0.02

[M*kg/grid]

Summary :

1. The time series of CH4/CO2 ratios at Alert observatory during well-defined episodes primarily originating from Siberian and/or European source regions dropped by ~ 40% from 1988 to 2005.

2. Time series of modelled CH4/CO2 ratios (using the NIES atmospheric transport model and NCEP reanalysis meteorology, along with annual reported CO2 sources and individual CH4 sources for 2003) showed no change over the same time period.

3. Partitioning the simulated CH4 events into contributions by region showed that on average, fossil fuel emissions from Europe accounted for more than 50% of the signal with Western Siberia having the 2nd largest contribution

4. To reproduce the trend in the ratio of CH4/CO2 observed in the data requires a reduction in emissions of CH4 on the order of 14 to 33 Tg/yr, depending on the regions contributing to this decrease.

5. If the EDGAR emissions changes for Europe of 14 Tg/yr are correct our analysis suggests a emissions change for Western Siberia of 7 Tg/yr.

6. If the Bousquet et al. estimate (see Poster) of emissions changes for Europe of about 30 Tg/yr is correct our data would agree and Edgar would be wrong by a factor of two

7. Study is still on-going.