quantifying the decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions in europe and siberia using modeling and...
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Quantifying the decrease in anthropogenic methane emissions in Europe and Siberia using modeling and atmospheric measurements of carbon dioxide and methane from Alert, Canada.
D. Worthy1, E. Chan1, M. Ishizawa1, D. Chan1 & P. Bergamaschi2 & I. Levin3
1) Environment Canada, 4905 Dufferin Street, Toronto, Canada2) Climate Change Unit Institute for Environment and Sustainability (IES) Joint Research Centre European Commission Ispra, Italy3) Institut für Umweltphysik, University of Heidelberg (UHEI-IUP), Heidelberg, Germany
Alert
East Trout Lake
Egbert
Fraserdale
Estevan Pt.
Sable Is.Candle Lake
Baker Lake
Churchill
Chibougamau
Western Peatland
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
YEAR
340
350
360
370
380
390
CO
2 (p
pm)
D aily Averages Seasonal C ycle
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 2004 2006
YEAR
1.74
1.76
1.78
1.80
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
1.90
1.92
1.94
1.96
CH
4 (p
pm)
Daily Averages Seasonal Cycle
Canada’s GHG Air Sampling Network
In situ and flask CO, CO2, CH4, N2O, SF6; Flask H2, and CO2 isotopes
Flask CO, CO2, CH4, N2O, H2, SF6 & CO2 isotopes only (Estevan Point)
Proposed CCP and IPY sites Aircraft vertical profiles (NOAA)
Alert CO2
Alert CH4
Dr. Neil Trivett Global Atmosphere Watch Observatory
98.95 98.97 98.99 99.01 99.03Decimal Year
(Dec 13th 1998 to January 8th 1999)
1.85
1.90
1.95
2.00
CH
4(p
pm)
370
372
374
376
378
380
CO
2(ppm
)
0
50
100
150
200
250
BC
(ng
m-3)
377.6
374.0
1.976
1.908
Alert CO2 - Dec-Feb 1988 - 2004
Alert CH4 - Dec-Feb 1988 - 2004
25 Day Time Series
1989/1990
1997/1998
Ratio of CH4 to CO2 (Long-term trend & seasonality removed)
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20045
10
15
20
25
Slo
pe (
ppb
CH
4/ppm
CO
2)
Year
Annual Winter Mean CH4/CO
2 ratio
7: Temperate Asia
6: North Africa
5: Europe
4: Western Siberia
3: Eastern Siberia
2: Temperate NA
1: Boreal NA
9: Ocean
8: Other Land Area
Model Simulations (9 regions and 11 emission sources)
C8_10C8_9C8_8C8_7C8_6C8_5C8_4C8_3C8_2C8_1C8#8
C7_10C7_9C7_8C7_7C7_6C7_5C7_4C7_3C7_2C7_1C7#7
C9_11C9#9
C6_10C6_9C6_8C6_7C6_6C6_5C6_4C6_3C6_2C6_1C6#6
C5_10C5_9C5_8C5_7C5_6C5_5C5_4C5_3C5_2C5_1C5#5
C4_10C4_9C4_8C4_7C4_6C4_5C4_4C4_3C4_2C4_1C4#4
C3_10C3_9C3_8C3_7C3_6C3_5C3_4C3_3C3_2C3_1C3#3
C2_10C2_9C2_8C2_7C2_6C2_5C2_4C2_3C2_2C2_1C2#2
C1_10C1_9C1_8C1_7C1_6C1_5C1_4C1_3C1_2C1_1C1#1
11:
ocean
10:
soil
9:
termites
8:
wild animal
7:
wetland
6:
waste
5:
bb
4:
rice
3:
animal
2:
gas
1:
coal
All
emission
C8_10C8_9C8_8C8_7C8_6C8_5C8_4C8_3C8_2C8_1C8#8
C7_10C7_9C7_8C7_7C7_6C7_5C7_4C7_3C7_2C7_1C7#7
C9_11C9#9
C6_10C6_9C6_8C6_7C6_6C6_5C6_4C6_3C6_2C6_1C6#6
C5_10C5_9C5_8C5_7C5_6C5_5C5_4C5_3C5_2C5_1C5#5
C4_10C4_9C4_8C4_7C4_6C4_5C4_4C4_3C4_2C4_1C4#4
C3_10C3_9C3_8C3_7C3_6C3_5C3_4C3_3C3_2C3_1C3#3
C2_10C2_9C2_8C2_7C2_6C2_5C2_4C2_3C2_2C2_1C2#2
C1_10C1_9C1_8C1_7C1_6C1_5C1_4C1_3C1_2C1_1C1#1
11:
ocean
10:
soil
9:
termites
8:
wild animal
7:
wetland
6:
waste
5:
bb
4:
rice
3:
animal
2:
gas
1:
coal
All
emission
P. Bergamaschi et al. (2006:
Satellite cartography of atmospheric methane by extending the CH4 dataset retrieved from SCIAMACHY & inverse model simulations for 2003 (using NOAA flask CH4 measurements & TM5 transport model).
Atmospheric CH4 at Alert is simulated using the NIES atmospheric transport model and NCEP reanalysis meteorology
Relative CH4 contribution by region
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
O bservations
M odeled O utput
1.76
1.78
1.8
1.82
1.84
1.86
1.88
1.9
(ppb)
In situ/model CH4 comparison
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
0
10
20
30
40
50
Re
lativ
e C
ontr
ibut
ion
(pp
b)
Boreal NATem perate NAW estern S iberiaEastern S iberiaEuropeNorth A fricaTem perate AsiaO ther Land Areas
Jan. 1 to Feb. 6 1991
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
G as & O il Coal Anim alsW aste
0
5
10
15
20R
ela
tive
Con
trib
utio
n (
ppb
)
0
5
10
15
20Source Contributions from W estern S iberia
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
G as & O ilCoal Anim alsW aste
0
5
10
15
20
Re
lativ
e C
on
trib
utio
n (
ppb)
0
5
10
15
20Source Contributions from Europe
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
G as & O ilC oal Anim alsW aste
0
5
10
15
20
Re
lativ
e C
ontr
ibut
ion
(pp
b)
0
5
10
15
20Source Contributions from Tem perate Asia
Western Siberia
Temperate Asia
Europe
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
M ethane C O 2 (FF & B iospheric sources)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80M
eth
ane
Re
lativ
e C
ontr
ibut
ion
(ppb
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CO
2 Relative
Contribution (ppm
)
Modeled CH4/CO2
comparison
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20045
10
15
20
25
Slo
pe (
ppb
CH
4/ppm
CO
2)
Year
Annual Winter Mean CH4/CO
2 ratio
1991 1991.02 1991.04 1991.06 1991.08 1991.1Year
M ethane C O 2 (FF & B iospheric sources)
0
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
80M
eth
ane
Re
lativ
e C
ontr
ibut
ion
(ppb
)
0
1
2
3
4
5
6
7
8
9
10
11
12
CO
2 Relative
Contribution (ppm
)
Modeled CH4/CO2
comparison
Western Siberian CH4 source change of 3.4 Tg/yr changes the ratio by 1 ppb/ppm
If change occurs only in Western Siberia this would result in a 14 Tg/yr source change
European CH4 source change of8.36 Tg/yr changes the ratio by 1 ppb/ppm
If change occurs only in Europe this would result in a 33 Tg/yr source change
1988 1990 1992 1994 1996 1998 2000 2002 20045
10
15
20
25
Slo
pe (
ppb
CH
4/ppm
CO
2)
Year
Observations Model
Annual Winter Mean CH4/CO
2 ratio
[M*kg/grid]
Change in anthropogenic CH4 emissions:1990-2000 (source: EDGAR)
Change in anthropogenic CH4 emissions 1990-2000 (source: EDGAR)
Europe (-14 Tg/yr) Energy : -8.1 Animal : -5.3 Waste : -0.5
W. Siberia (-2 Tg/yr) Energy : -1.6 Animal : -0.5 Waste : 0.02
E. Siberia (-0.08 Tg/yr) Energy : -0.12 Animal : 0.02 Waste : 0.02
[M*kg/grid]
Summary :
1. The time series of CH4/CO2 ratios at Alert observatory during well-defined episodes primarily originating from Siberian and/or European source regions dropped by ~ 40% from 1988 to 2005.
2. Time series of modelled CH4/CO2 ratios (using the NIES atmospheric transport model and NCEP reanalysis meteorology, along with annual reported CO2 sources and individual CH4 sources for 2003) showed no change over the same time period.
3. Partitioning the simulated CH4 events into contributions by region showed that on average, fossil fuel emissions from Europe accounted for more than 50% of the signal with Western Siberia having the 2nd largest contribution
4. To reproduce the trend in the ratio of CH4/CO2 observed in the data requires a reduction in emissions of CH4 on the order of 14 to 33 Tg/yr, depending on the regions contributing to this decrease.
5. If the EDGAR emissions changes for Europe of 14 Tg/yr are correct our analysis suggests a emissions change for Western Siberia of 7 Tg/yr.
6. If the Bousquet et al. estimate (see Poster) of emissions changes for Europe of about 30 Tg/yr is correct our data would agree and Edgar would be wrong by a factor of two
7. Study is still on-going.