precios asia spread prices

Post Disaster：Key Factors

in Asian LNG Market

World LNG Series ASIA Pacific SUMMIT

21 September 2011, Singapore

Yasushi Asano

General Manager of LNG Business

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Introduction

1

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Outline

1. Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG

2. Change for Buyers (Before and After Disaster)

3. Future Trends in Suppliers' Side

4. What's Next?

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

1.Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG

0

50

100

150

200

250

300Substitute LNG for nuclear reactors

Asian LNG

Demand（other

than Japanese)

Japanese LNG Demand

Min Max

～2015

LNG Supply for Asian Market（Existing, FID & FS)

Min Max

2016~2020

Min Max

2021~2030

(mpta)

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

1.Demand and Supply Prospect for Asian LNG

Increasing Spot Trade especially in Asia and Europe

• Spot LNG for Asia

- 4mpta (2005) to 18mpta (2010)

• Spot LNG for Europe

- 6mpta (2005) to 14mpta (2010)

• Some Spot Cargoes in Europe (2010) possibly

flow into Asian Market in 2011

Spot Volume in Atlantic can be source for additional

Asian Demand including Nuclear Freeze

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2.Change for Buyers (Before and After Disaster)

• Atlantic LNG Flow to Asia (2010) : 8 to 9 mpta

• Increased Atlantic LNG to Japan (after Disaster) ; 4mpta

Atlantic LNG

Flow to Asia

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Change for Buyers (Before Disaster)

• Constant Trends Gap between JKM and NBP

- Atlantic LNG flows to the Asian Spot Market

($/mmbtu)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12 Spread (JKM-NBP)

JKM

NBP

HH

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

2. Change for Buyers (After Disaster)

• Different Trends between JKM and NBP

- 'Unreasonable' Price Gap caused by unbalanced Supply

and Demand by the 'month by month' Spot Purchase of

some Asian Buyers due to the Nuclear Freeze ($/mmbtu)

0

2

4

6

8

10

12

14

16

18

2011/03/11 2011/04/11 2011/05/11 2011/06/11 2011/07/11 2011/08/11

Spread (JKM-NBP)

JKM

NBP

HH

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Continuous Spot Purchase by Asian Buyers

- Increased Atlantic LNG flow to Asian Market

will continue

- Buyers' Concern on continued 'Unreasonable'

Price Gap including 'whichever higher'

concept

Production Start of New Plant to supply the

Asian Market

- Expect to end the 'Unreasonable' Price Gap

- 'Reasonable' Price Gap ?

2. Change for Buyers (After Disaster)

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Commit to the Unconventional Gas (CBM,

Shale Gas)

- Enhance LNG Trade by Alternate Flame

Window to the North American Gas Market

(US Export, Canadian Shale Gas)

- HH Linked LNG Flow to the Asian Market

3. Future Trends in Supplier Side

Chubu's Activity on LNG Business

- Efforts for the integrated LNG Market

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

Increased Asian LNG Demand will accelerate

the Change (Integration of Markets)

Revival of Asian LNG Demand/Japanese

LNG Demand

- Expand the Presence of the Traditional

Asian Buyers in the LNG Market

3. Future Trends in Supplier Side

After Disaster

© 2009 Chubu Electric Power Co., Inc. All rights reserved.

4. What's Next?

In summary

Integration among the LNG Markets with

'Reasonable' Price Gap

Chubu's Commitment ; Towards Significant Player

in the Integrated Markets, enhancing such

Integration

Thank you!