popper iknow presentation for the horizon scanning ... · scanning 2.0. aim • to elucidate and...

Rafael PopperScientific Director & Project Leader

University of Manchester

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

www. iknowfutures .eu

horizon scanning

2.0

Aim• To elucidate and examine events and developments potentially shaping or shak ing

the future of science, technology and innovation in the Europe and the world

Objectives• To develop and pilot conceptual and methodological frame works

– to identify, classify, cluster & analyse wild cards & weak signals (WI-WE)

• To assess selected WI-WE’s– implications for, and expected impact on

• science, technology and innovation (STI)– relevance for key dimensions of European research & technology development :

• Researchers mobility• Research infrastructures• Research institutions• Knowledge sharing• Joint Programming (research programmes and prioriti es)• International S&T cooperation

About iKNOW

horizon scanning

2.0

WP8: Developing and piloting tools and applications(iKnow Multi-Module Web-Environment & Community )

• Wi-We Bank : using Web 2.0 approaches and tools• Wi-We Scan : WI-WE scanning & search system

(including WI-WE clustering and visualisation)

T

I

M

E

WP 3 Characterisation of WI-WE

WI-WE Bank

WP5: National & Regional viewsFour country surveys

(2 FP7 themes per country, implications on 6 ERA dimensions)

WP6: National Multi-Method Workshops

month 1

month 30

WP7: writing case studies

WI-WE Bulletins

FP7 Themes

ERA Dimensions

Thematic areas

Researchers

Research Infrastructures

Research Institutions

Knowledge Sharing

Research Progr. & Prior.

InternationalisationFI UK CZ GE

CZ FI GE UK

WP9: Disseminating & Interconnecting Knowledge

WP1

COORDINATION

&

MANAGEMENT

IL

month 15

WP2: State of the art, literature review on Weak Signals and Wild Cards (WI-WE)

WP4: EU & International views1 Cross-national Delphi survey

50 (telephone) interviews

iKNOW logic

(WI) Wild Cards

– situations/events with perceivedlow probability of occurrence but potentially high impact if they were to occur.

(WE) Weak Signals

– unclear observables warning usabout the probability of future events (including Wild Cards). They implore us to consider alternative interpretations of an issue’s evolution to gauge its potential impact.

DESIRABLE

MIXED/UNCERTAIN

UNDESIRABLE

WI-WE can be…

What are we scanning?

horizon scanning

2.0

information collection (1 /5)

• ILTD Inward-Looking Top-Down» 6 iKNOW Consortium» Over 2,000 EU-funded research projects

• OLBU Outward-Looking Bottom-Up» iKNOW Community (Policy-makers; Decision-

makers, Researchers and Foresight practitioners » Different knowledge sources

• ILBU Inward-Looking Bottom-Up• OLTD Outward-Looking Top-Down

horizon scanning

2.0

information collection (2 /5)

1. iKNOW Consortium (ILTD scanning)2. iKNOW Community (OLBU scanning)3. Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)4. Interviews

– S&T experts, ERA experts, Foresighters5. Workshops (UK, FI, CZ, GE, BE, …)6. Surveys (e.g. OII’s Future Internet Delphi)7. WI-WE Delphi Survey8. Mapping Foresight Environment

– European Foresight Platform (former EFMN)

horizon scanning

2.0

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning

2.0

1Type of event

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning

2.0

2Characterization

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning

2.0

3Systems

+Desirability

Wi-We Bank (iKNOW Library)

horizon scanning

2.0

4importance

information collection (3 /5)

Interviews

• Foresight

• S&T

• ERA

How many?

• around 50

horizon scanning

2.0

information collection (4 /5)

iKNOW workshops

Thematic experts

• Peter Ellwood (UK)

• Fiona Lickorish (UK)

• John Reynolds (UK)

• John Turnpenny (UK)

• Martin Fatun (CZ)

A facilitator

• Yanuar Nugroho (UK)

A rapporteur

• David Cain (UK)

A supervisor

• Rafael Popper (UK)

horizon scanning

2.0

information collection (5 /5)

iKNOW workshops

18 to 20 ‘wild’ situations

• Wild features / factors

• Interpretations

• Impacts

• Actors

• Actions*

• (Weak) Signals

Actions / Recommendations

• Policy

• Business

• Research

horizon scanning

2.0

MPs ‘fraudulent’ claims (e.g. an adult film, mortgag es on homes that relatives live in, paying too much to

relatives from public funds, etc)

Media Frenzy: MPs' expenses making headlines for nearly two years

Ac 2i 1

national

european

global

wildwildwildwild----tamelinetamelinetamelinetameline

actors*actors*actors*actors*

i 2 i 3

Impacts*Impacts*Impacts*Impacts*

interpretationsinterpretationsinterpretationsinterpretations

E

G

D

S

L

P

i

E

F 1

F 2

F 3

F 4

im 1

im 2

actions*actions*actions*actions*

Ac 1

UK Parliamentary system UK Parliamentary system UK Parliamentary system UK Parliamentary system undermined by MP expensesundermined by MP expensesundermined by MP expensesundermined by MP expenses

(moat cleaning on the taxpayer)

Historic01010101

national

european

A 1 A 2 A 3

F 1

F 2

F 3

Leaked information (CD): expenses claims were published by the Daily Telegraph

Freedom of Information campaigners won a High Court case to get MPs claims released after years o f

battling Commons authorities

i 1Complete and meaningful reform need

387 recommendations in BBC’s Have Your Say on MP expenses

50% of MPs are corrupt316 recommendations in BBC’s Have Your Say on MP expenses

Ac 1 Sir Thomas Legg’s audit of MPs' expenses

Ac 2The Director of Public Prosecutions announces that 3 MPs and 1 peer

will face criminal charges over their expense claim s

im 1 Public distrust in MPs has mounted

F 4

i 3 Sir Thomas Legg’s interpretation: "vague rules" and a "culture of deference" surrounds MPs' expenses

i 2

A 1Freedom of Information

campaigners A 3

High Court

im 2 New rules for MP expenses

A 4

A 2 MPS

Daily Telegraph / Media

A 4

methodological filters

2009 Space

blogs

social networks

interviewsinterviews Etc.

scientific journals

2010 Space

horizon scanning

2.0

children workshops

?

blogs

knowledge filters

horizon scanning

2.0in

tuiti

velo

gica

l

unfamiliar

com

mon

sen

secr

itica

lpr

ospe

ctiv

est

rate

gic

familiar knowledgeable expert

interviews

researchprojects

expertworkshops

surveysmedia

science fiction ?

social networks

iKNOWsources

books journal articles

manifestation & perception filters

horizon scanning

2.0

information retrieval filters

horizon scanning

2.0

keyword + issue type

filters

inspired by(source)

+related to(impact)

filters

re-emerging

continuation

discontinuation

future

emerging / new

WI

WI

WI

issues

issues

issues

issues

past

resolution WI

issues

inte

rpre

tatio

n

WE

WE

WE

WE

WE

asse

ssm

ent

leve

l of u

ncer

tain

ty

WIWIWI

WI

cognitive filters

horizon scanning

2.0

Interpretations are really importantMcArthur's Universal Corrective Map of the World

South

North

originality / importance / impact filters

horizon scanning

2.0

0 1 2 3 4 5

SSH-25

SSH-24

SSH-23

SSH-22

SSH-21

SSH-20

SSH-19

SSH-18

SSH-17

SSH-16

SSH-15

SSH-14

SSH-13

SSH-12

SSH-11

SSH-10

SSH-09

SSH-08

SSH-07

SSH-06

SSH-05

SSH-04

SSH-03

SSH-02

SSH-01

3.8

3.0

1.8

3.7

2.7

3.2

2.3

2.6

3.2

3.8

3.1

2.6

4.6

3.1

2.3

2.8

2.1

2.6

2.9

2.8

4.0

3.3

2.6

1.9

3.4

Originality

0 1 2 3 4

SSH-25

SSH-24

SSH-23

SSH-22

SSH-21

SSH-20

SSH-19

SSH-18

SSH-17

SSH-16

SSH-15

SSH-14

SSH-13

SSH-12

SSH-11

SSH-10

SSH-09

SSH-08

SSH-07

SSH-06

SSH-05

SSH-04

SSH-03

SSH-02

SSH-01

2.8

2.2

2.2

2.4

2.6

2.2

1.8

2.1

2.6

2.9

2.2

1.6

2.0

2.2

2.3

2.2

2.6

1.6

1.4

3.0

2.0

1.9

1.7

2.6

2.2

Importance for Europe

0 2 4 6 8 10 12

SSH-25

SSH-24

SSH-23

SSH-22

SSH-21

SSH-20

SSH-19

SSH-18

SSH-17

SSH-16

SSH-15

SSH-14

SSH-13

SSH-12

SSH-11

SSH-10

SSH-09

SSH-08

SSH-07

SSH-06

SSH-05

SSH-04

SSH-03

SSH-02

SSH-01

0.6

0.6

0.6

1.2

1.4

1.0

0.8

0.3

0.8

0.8

1.0

0.6

0.8

0.8

0.6

1.0

0.6

0.4

0.7

0.8

0.9

0.8

0.7

1.0

0.9

0.9

0.8

1.1

1.3

1.2

1.9

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.7

1.4

1.8

1.2

1.7

2.0

1.6

1.4

1.4

1.9

1.3

1.3

1.2

1.7

1.1

1.0

0.6

0.9

1.0

0.8

1.0

0.7

1.1

0.6

1.1

0.7

0.8

1.2

1.0

1.6

0.9

0.9

0.7

0.7

1.3

1.6

1.4

0.7

1.3

0.7

1.6

1.1

1.4

1.4

0.8

1.4

1.2

0.4

0.8

0.9

1.0

0.7

0.8

1.7

0.9

1.2

1.3

0.7

1.3

1.1

0.7

1.4

0.9

1.6

1.9

1.3

1.9

0.3

0.7

1.2

0.4

0.4

0.8

2.0

1.2

0.7

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.4

1.2

0.3

0.6

0.7

1.9

0.7

0.6

0.4

0.9

0.4

1.6

0.9

1.0

1.4

0.6

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.3

1.9

1.2

1.2

1.0

1.0

1.3

1.1

1.0

1.1

1.0

1.9

2.0

1.0

0.4

1.6

0.9

0.4

0.3

0.2

0.3

1.2

0.3

1.2

0.3

0.6

0.4

1.1

0.4

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.8

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.9

0.4

1.0

0.4

1.9

0.4

0.4

0.6

0.3

0.6

0.6

0.4

0.4

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.4

0.6

1.4

0.4

0.6

0.6

0.3

0.4

0.6

0.8

0.4

0.6

0.7

0.6

0.7

Impacts of iKNOW SSH Wild Cards

infrastructures

people’s lives

legislation & regulation

economy & business

defence & security

governance & politics

environment & ecosystems

science & technology

SSH-02: Pay as you pollute (Individual and collective trade of pollution credits)

SSH-06: Major EU state elects neo fascist leader

originality / importance / impact filters

horizon scanning

2.0

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

infrastructures

people’s lives

legislation &

regulation

economy & business

defence & security

governance & politics

environment &

ecosystems

science & technology

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

infrastructures

people’s lives

legislation &

regulation

economy & business

defence & security

governance & politics

environment &

ecosystems

science & technology

0.0

0.5

1.0

1.5

2.0

2.5

3.0

infrastructures

people’s lives

legislation &

regulation

economy & business

defence & security

governance & politics

environment &

ecosystems

science & technology

SSH

ENV NANO

expert opinion filters

horizon scanning

2.0

DelphiLikelihood

+Importance

+Impact

+Desirability

+Wildness

+RTD Strategies

+Signals (existing & future)

…the changing world of…

• infrastructures (physical & virtual)

• People’s lives (social interactions, health & safety)

• Legislation & regulation

• Economy & business

• Defence & security

• Government & politics

• Environment & ecosystems

• Science & technology (knowledge dynamics)

WI-WE analysis can help us understand…

A changing world

infrastructures

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

?

A changing world

People’s lives

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

A changing world

Legislation and regulation

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

Patents

A changing world

Economy and business

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

A changing world

Defence and Security

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

A changing world

Government and Politics

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

Cold War

From 6in 1950s

…to 27in 2007

…?

A changing world

Environment & ecosystems

Global Warming Continental drift

A changing world

Science & technology (knowledge dynamics)

ExplorationS&T

Innovation

www.iknowfutures.eu socio-economic sciences and humanities research

Penicillin

communication (1 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

topWi

keywords

topWe

keywords

topWi-We

keywords

communication (2 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

newface

communication (3 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

rating favorites+

private notes+

user profile stats+

quick / easy / advance scan+

newsletters+

and more!

communication (4 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

type of issue+

theme+

occurrence/impact+

headline/title+

date of creation+

progress status

communication (5 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

communication (6 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

communication (7 /7)

horizon scanning

2.0

1 Water security / vulnerability

2 Energy security / vulnerability

3 Diseases / health and well being

4 Sustainability / turbulence / resilience

5 Ageing / youth and demographic tension

6 Food security / diet & culture

7 Globalization vs. localization

8 Social cohesion / alienation

9 Techno security / hazard & risk

10 Behavioural change / inertia

11 Knowledge and technology sharing / asymmetry

12 Work-Life balance / mental health

13 Ethics/abuse of future S&T developments

14 Crime & corruption/justice & transparency

15 Governance and democracy / Citizens' trust in governments

16 Coexistence / conflict

17 Social pathologies / norms

18 Social exclusion / Poverty & affluence

19 Prosperity/economic & political stability

20 Urbanization / counter-urbanization

Problem - and Solution -oriented focused on Grand Challenges

exploitation

horizon scanning

2.0

imaginary call for proposals

The main contribution

is HOWnot WHAT

prototype

interconnecting knowledge(convergence-interdisciplinary)

new research questions

new research agendas

impact on Grand Challenges

identification of problems

identification of solutions

relevance to EU research

sense-making

pattern recognition

emerging issues

informing policy

possible futures

www. iknowfutures .eu

Thank youThank youThank youThank youRafael PopperRafael PopperRafael PopperRafael Popper

on behalf of the iKNOW Teamon behalf of the iKNOW Teamon behalf of the iKNOW Teamon behalf of the iKNOW Team